Politics, elections and piffle plinking

Category Archives: morgan

Global Warming and CPRS Polling

November 18, 2009 – 8:32 am

Morgan released a telephone poll yesterday (split into two parts) that looks at public perceptions of global warming and views on the current CPRS legislation. It was a phone poll running off a sample of 674, giving us an MoE that maxes out around the 3.8% mark.
The first question asked was “Which of the [...]

By Possum Comitatus | Tagged ALP, Bob Brown, climate change, Coalition, CPRS, demographics, ETS, global warming, Greens, Kevin Rudd, Labor Party, Liberal Party, Malcolm Turnbull, morgan, partisan ID, Polling | Comments (84)

Weekend Polling

November 16, 2009 – 6:06 am

Via The Oz and Newspoll comes some specific Qld marginal seat polling undertaken in the six electorates of Dawson, Flynn, Bowman, Dickson, Longman and Herbert. The average two party preferred in these marginals was given as 54/46 to the ALP.
That equates to an average swing of 2.7% to Labor in these six electorates (The Oz [...]

By Possum Comitatus | Also posted in Galaxy, newspoll, pollytrend | Tagged Galaxy, Greens, marginal seats, morgan, newspoll, Queensland | Comments (16)

Morgan and a Pollytrend Update

November 13, 2009 – 2:47 pm

Morgan has released a face to face poll from last weekend with the primaries running 46.5 (down 4.5)/38.5 (up 6) to Labor, washing out into a two party preferred of 56/44, a 5 point gain for the Coalition. The Greens are on 8 (down 1.5) while the broad others are on 7 steady.This comes from [...]

By Possum Comitatus | Also posted in pollytrend | Tagged ALP, Australian Politics, Coalition, Kevin Rudd, Labor Party, Liberal Party, Malcolm Turnbull, morgan, Polling | Comments (10)

Morgan Adds Outlier Weight to Newspoll

November 6, 2009 – 5:18 pm

Morgan has cheekily come in a week early, giving us the first week of what is usually a two week Face to Face poll with the primaries running 51 (down 1) /32.5 (down 2) to Labor, washing out into a two party preferred of 61/39 the same way – a half a point increase to [...]

By Possum Comitatus | Tagged ALP, Australian Politics, Coalition, Essential Report, Kevin Rudd, Labor Party, Liberal Party, Malcolm Turnbull, morgan, newspoll, outlier, Polling | Comments (58)

Could the polls actually be undercooked for Labor?

October 27, 2009 – 11:38 am

Something interesting has been popping up in the polling with the two party preferred vote – there is a statistically significant difference between the two party preferred estimate when poll respondents get to allocate preferences compared to the two party preferred estimate when preferences are allocated on the same basis that they were at the [...]

By Possum Comitatus | Also posted in Polling, election results, nielsen | Tagged ALP, Australian Politics, Coalition, Kevin Rudd, Labor Party, Liberal Party, Malcolm Turnbull, nielsen, Polling, polls, preference distribution, Roy Morgan, two party preferred | Comments (28)

Monday’s Leadership Polling

October 12, 2009 – 6:39 am

Three new polls to have a look at today over the Coalition leadership – Nielsen (Oct 8-10, sample size =1400), Newspoll (Oct 9-11, sample size =1153) and Morgan Phone Poll (Oct 7-8, sample size 549). Both Nielsen and Newspoll used Turnbull, Hockey and Abbott as response options, allowing us a direct comparison:

Normally, when you get [...]

By Possum Comitatus | Also posted in leadership, newspoll, nielsen | Tagged Australian Politics, Coalition LEadership, Joe Hockey, Malcolm Turnbull, morgan, newspoll, nielsen, Polling, tony abbott | Comments (5)

Geelong vs. St Kilda – grand final demographics and supporter numbers

September 25, 2009 – 9:57 am

With the AFL grand final this Saturday, there’s been a timely little poll release from Roy Morgan looking at the sporting and leisure behaviour of the supporters of the grand finalists.The estimates here derive from 12 months worth of Morgan data (July 2008 to June 2009) from their Roy Morgan Sports Monitor, which is a [...]

By Possum Comitatus | Tagged AFL, afl demographics, Geelong Cats, grand final, Roy Morgan, St Kilda Saints, supporter numbers | Comments (15)

Do Pollsters Lean?

September 1, 2009 – 12:28 pm

One of the regular questions that pop up when it comes to Australian political polling is whether the pollsters have a bias toward one party or another when it comes to the results of their respective vote estimates. Even though “bias” is a technically correct way to describe what we’re looking at here, it unfortunately [...]

By Possum Comitatus | Also posted in Essential Report, Polling, newspoll, nielsen | Tagged Australian Politics, bias, Essential Report, face to face polling, morgan, newspoll, nielsen, phone polls, Polling, Roy Morgan, trends | Comments (11)

Our Changing Views on the Death Penalty

August 28, 2009 – 7:17 am

Roy Morgan has released a poll that has an absolute cracker of a history behind it – containing data that goes back all the way to 1947, close to when the polling organisation first started. It looks at the proportion of people that believe the death penalty should be applied for those found guilty of [...]

By Possum Comitatus | Tagged Australian Politics, death penalty, drug trafficking, mandatory sentencing, Polling, Roy Morgan | Comments (17)

Public Perceptions of Australia’s Security Threats

August 26, 2009 – 1:38 pm

Roy Morgan has just released an interesting poll that looks at the public perceptions of which countries are considered to be Australia’s biggest security threat. It was a phone poll run from a relatively small sample size of 687 people aged 14+, and as a result has a maximum MoE of around the 3.7% mark. [...]