The extraordinary growth in the relationship between perceptions of the Prime Minister and the electoral fortunes of the government they lead. A statistical analysis of our new primary dynamic.

Australian federal polling trends for June

Australian federal polling trends and election simulations

Comparing Australian pollsters and their relative partisan leans

Latest Australian political polling trends for October

Australian federal election simulations and polling trends

Australian polling trends for Labor, the Coalition and the Greens

Being the end of June, it’s time to crank up the stats and run our quarterly election simulations based on polling aggregates of the last 3 months from all the pollsters that provide state level breakdowns. However, before we do, it’s worth updating our Pollytrend measures as the month of June turned out to be [...]

Plugging all the new polling data of late into our trend system, we find that the medium term deterioration in the Labor government’s two party preferred vote has stabilised out around the 46% mark over the last 6 weeks. A lot of day to day stuff came and went, from budgets to boat people, from [...]

With the Newspoll quarterly release this week, we now have enough data to aggregate the pollsters together, break the aggregated sample down into state based components and run our first election simulation for 2011. Before we start though, it’s worth running though an updated Pollytrend to show how the polls have moved over the January [...]