Politics, elections and piffle plinking

Category Archives: pollytrend

The polling isn’t as exciting as it looks

November 17, 2009 – 9:02 am

With pollster and electorate volatility apparently running rampant over the last few weeks, it’s worth taking a closer look at exactly what went on.
If we chart the first differences of each pollster since August – the amount that the two party preferred estimate has changed since the previous poll of that pollster – we [...]

By Possum Comitatus | Also posted in Polling | Tagged ALP, asylum seekers, Australian Politics, Coalition, Labor Party, Liberal Party, outliers, Polling, polling trends, pollytrend, rogue, volatility | Comments (9)

Weekend Polling

November 16, 2009 – 6:06 am

Via The Oz and Newspoll comes some specific Qld marginal seat polling undertaken in the six electorates of Dawson, Flynn, Bowman, Dickson, Longman and Herbert. The average two party preferred in these marginals was given as 54/46 to the ALP.
That equates to an average swing of 2.7% to Labor in these six electorates (The Oz [...]

By Possum Comitatus | Also posted in Galaxy, morgan, newspoll | Tagged Galaxy, Greens, marginal seats, morgan, newspoll, Queensland | Comments (16)

Morgan and a Pollytrend Update

November 13, 2009 – 2:47 pm

Morgan has released a face to face poll from last weekend with the primaries running 46.5 (down 4.5)/38.5 (up 6) to Labor, washing out into a two party preferred of 56/44, a 5 point gain for the Coalition. The Greens are on 8 (down 1.5) while the broad others are on 7 steady.This comes from [...]

By Possum Comitatus | Also posted in morgan | Tagged ALP, Australian Politics, Coalition, Kevin Rudd, Labor Party, Liberal Party, Malcolm Turnbull, morgan, Polling | Comments (10)

New Pollytrend Metric – Phone Pollster Trend

November 8, 2009 – 11:25 am

We all know about our Pollytrend chart – where we build a rolling average of the most recent poll from each pollster weighted by sample size, then run an aggressive locally weighted polynomial regression through the results to give us an adaptive trend line. While Pollytrend is good for picking up medium term shifts in [...]

By Possum Comitatus | Tagged ALP, Australian Politics, Coalition, Labor Party, Liberal Party, locally weighted polynomial regression, LOESS, political polls, poll averages, Polling, pollytrend | Comments (22)

Pollytrend and Odds and Ends

November 5, 2009 – 7:59 am

Throwing the last polling cycle’s worth of data into the Pollytrend algorithm, we can see that Newspoll produced no discernible change in the trend line – which is to be expected, since our trend here measures how all polls move together and it can adapt to outliers.

Also worth having a squiz at are three charts [...]

By Possum Comitatus | Tagged Australian Politics, electorates, Essential Report, morgan, newspoll, Polling, pollytrend, population growth | Comments (16)

Pollytrend and Vote Floors

September 9, 2009 – 7:16 am

Looking at the Labor two party preferred for this polling cycle, we’ve seen Essential Report move +3 over the period, Morgan Face to Face +3 while Newspoll was steady.
Last cycle our Pollytrend line had a hit a turning point, developing a disposition to move towards the Coalition this cycle should the poll results over the [...]

By Possum Comitatus | Tagged Australian Politics, Coalition, Kevin Rudd, Labor Party, Liberal Party, Malcolm Turnbull, Polling, pollytrend, voting trends | Comments (6)

Pollytrend – The August State of Play

August 25, 2009 – 9:12 am

During the polling cycle of the last fortnight, on the ALP two party preferred we’ve had Nielsen come in down 2 to 56 from June and Newspoll come in down 2 to 55 from last fortnight. Morgan Face to Face was down 2.5 to 58 from late July/early August and Essential moved down 2 from [...]

By Possum Comitatus | Tagged Australian Politics, Coalition, Labor Party, locally weighted polynomial regression, loess regression, polling trends, pollytrend | Comments (1)

Pollytrend – Fading Coalition Edition

August 11, 2009 – 8:47 am

Now that this polling cycle is complete, we can update our Pollytrend to see whether the underlying trend in the cumulative polling results have changed.
Throwing in the new data for this fortnight and comparing this cycle’s Pollytrend with where our trend line was last fortnight gives us:

This cycle we’ve had Morgan Phone come in up [...]

By Possum Comitatus | Tagged aggregated polling, Australian Politics, locally weighted polynomial regression, LOESS, polling trends, pollytrend | Comments (10)

Pollytrend – Where the polling now sits.

June 29, 2009 – 4:31 pm

The end of the trend is nigh. Plugging the poll figures from this cycle into our Pollytrend algorithm – the locally weighted polynomial regression we run through an All Pollster pooled aggregation weighted by sample size - shows how the medium term trend running against the ALP since April has now bottomed out, even popping [...]

By Possum Comitatus | Tagged australian poling, Australian Politics, Coalition, Kevin Rudd, Labor Party, Liberal Party, locally weighted polynomial regression, loess regression, Malcolm Turnbull, pollytrend, pooled polls | Comments (9)

Newspoll – on trend or undercooked?

June 16, 2009 – 8:30 am

This fortnight’s Newspoll via The Oz comes in with the primaries running 41 (down 2) / 40 (up 2) to Labor, washing out into a two party preferred of 53/47 the same way, a two point drop for the ALP since last fortnight. This comes from sample of 1148 giving an MoE that maxes out [...]