Australian federal polling trends and election simulations

Australian federal election simulations and polling trends

Being the end of June, it’s time to crank up the stats and run our quarterly election simulations based on polling aggregates of the last 3 months from all the pollsters that provide state level breakdowns. However, before we do, it’s worth updating our Pollytrend measures as the month of June turned out to be [...]

With the Newspoll quarterly release this week, we now have enough data to aggregate the pollsters together, break the aggregated sample down into state based components and run our first election simulation for 2011. Before we start though, it’s worth running though an updated Pollytrend to show how the polls have moved over the January [...]

With today’s combined two week Newspoll breakdown released over at The Oz, we can aggregate the results with the last two Nielsens and the JWS Godzilla poll to run some simulations. Ordinarily we make a pooled super sample of all the polls,  weighted by sample size, to get aggregate state results from which to crunch [...]

With the Newspoll release today of a slightly smaller than usual demographic breakdown (n=3437 rather than the usual n=5500+), we can combine them up with the last 2 Nielsen polls and run them through our election simulation – representing the broad period of July 22nd through to August 2nd, with a pooled sample of n=6193. [...]

Hidden among the events of Thursday’s spill was Newspoll’s quarterly release of their polling demographic breakdowns between April and June in The Oz. In what can only be described as very convenient timing, this allows us to pool these Newspoll results with the Nieslen results over the same period (plus one  unpublished phone poll I [...]

With Newspoll having released its quarterly polling breakdowns, we can now combine them with the Nielsen data for the last three months and  run our election simulation – giving us the most likely result were an election held over the Jan-Mar period and the results matched the polling. While the headline results showed a sharp [...]

Today via the Courier Mail comes a Federal poll for Qld showing the primaries running 46/39 to the Coalition, washing out into a two party preferred of 51/49 to the Coalition. This comes from a sample size of 800, giving us an MoE that maxes out around the 3.5% mark. At the 2007 election, the [...]

Ever wonder how ‘at risk’ your local member might be? Now that we have the full spectrum of quarterly polling data from Newspoll and Nielsen, not only can we run election simulations, but we can also use those simulation results to take a closer look at which seats would have been most likely to fall [...]