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When Wholes Are Less Than Sums of the Parts

When Wholes Are Less Than Sums of the Parts

Possum ComitatusJul 1, 201314 Comments

Headline national two party preferred results are clouding the dynamics and reality of what is happening at the state level - where elections are won and lost

Trends, The Horserace and random numbers

Trends, The Horserace and random numbers

Possum ComitatusNov 11, 201211 Comments

Today we look at latest polling trends, the timing issues of the ALP carbon tax recovery and big analysis of how most of Australia’s polling and political commentary is based on random numbers.

What if?

Possum ComitatusAug 30, 2010130 Comments

Inspired by a weird little exchange on Twitter where I asked “I wonder how different things would have been if John Watkins was made NSW Premier after Bob Carr?”, to which

Election Day Mega Simulation

Election Day Mega Simulation

Possum ComitatusAug 21, 201024 Comments

With all the pollsters in, we can finally run our final election day mega-simulation - and boy is it a close one! Not only does this simulation use our usual quasi-dependency framework

The Polls of Election Day

The Polls of Election Day

Possum ComitatusAug 21, 201017 Comments

A big wad of new polling comes in today as all the pollsters vie for bragging rights of being the most accurate - which is pretty funny in itself since the pollster that ultimately ends

Possum needs a job!

Possum ComitatusAug 19, 201073 Comments

After the election, I plan to seriously de-complicate my life. The time required to run this blog, particularly the data maintenance and background analysis that feeds into pro

Betting Market Monday

Betting Market Monday

Possum ComitatusAug 16, 201018 Comments

Last night the two agencies offering the best prices had a bit of movement towards the Coalition (making me wonder whether it was advanced knowledge of a good Coalition Newspoll result)

A Lazy Possums Catch Up and Open Thread.

A Lazy Possums Catch Up and Open Thread.

Possum ComitatusJul 30, 201034 Comments

I've been a little busy of late (including completely missing yesterday through a bourbon hazed birthday)  and have neglected some questions that were asked by you folks in earlier thr

The Post Spill Polling Roundup

The Post Spill Polling Roundup

Possum ComitatusJun 29, 201034 Comments

Since our last roundup, we've had another Galaxy, a Newspoll and an Essential Report come into the field. The Galaxy was taken on June 25, 1 day after their first poll and showing ident

Julia moves the markets

Julia moves the markets

Possum ComitatusJun 25, 201013 Comments

Yesterday's historic spill had quite an impact on the election betting markets, with the money moving towards Labor considerably. However, it all get's a little complicated as IASbet cl