Today we look at latest polling trends, the timing issues of the ALP carbon tax recovery and big analysis of how most of Australia’s polling and political commentary is based on random numbers.

With all the pollsters in, we can finally run our final election day mega-simulation – and boy is it a close one! Not only does this simulation use our usual quasi-dependency framework (where we don’t treat seats as independent events), but we’ve also anchored seats together within each state on the basis of capital city [...]

A big wad of new polling comes in today as all the pollsters vie for bragging rights of being the most accurate – which is pretty funny in itself since the pollster that ultimately ends up being closest to the actual election result does so purely through chance and chance alone. But far from be [...]

Last night the two agencies offering the best prices had a bit of movement towards the Coalition (making me wonder whether it was advanced knowledge of a good Coalition Newspoll result)- but that washed out of the system pretty quickly. As a result, over the last 24 hours nothing much happened on the markets – [...]

I’ve been a little busy of late (including completely missing yesterday through a bourbon hazed birthday)  and have neglected some questions that were asked by you folks in earlier threads – so rather than go back and chase them down when they probably no longer have anyone actually reading them, it might be better if [...]

Since our last roundup, we’ve had another Galaxy, a Newspoll and an Essential Report come into the field. The Galaxy was taken on June 25, 1 day after their first poll and showing identical results for the major parties, and a 1 point gain to the Greens at the expense of a 1 point drop [...]

Yesterday’s historic spill had quite an impact on the election betting markets, with the money moving towards Labor considerably. However, it all get’s a little complicated as IASbet closed their election book and hasn’t yet reopened, Sportingbet and Sportsbet both appeared to open new books where prices quickly adjusted once the punters came in- while [...]

Newspoll released today via The Oz a set of marginal seat polling that they undertook along with their usual nationwide poll over the period from last Friday to Sunday. It was based on three separate samples where the Qld seats of Longman, Dawson and Flynn were one, the NSW north coast seat of Page was [...]