Jeez, Bill, you are sounding like a rampant freeper, complaining that the US election polls predicting Obama’s victory are a liberal conspiracy to destroy conservative morale.

Peter, I didn’t mention any US election polls, crooked or otherwise. I mentioned one poll as being possibly fudged. In fact that was my whole point: one poll out of hundreds is out of kilter with the rest of them, not “ALL the polls are crook”.

I agree that the trend is our friend. But the News Ltd. press has specifically ventured that this poll, while being away from the trend, is correct. They have based most of their political articles on this very proposition. They are saying it represents a new trend. In fact you could say they’re suggesting it’s ahead of the new trend.

Now why would they do that?

To me, the fact that this poll has been claimed to confirm the precise line that the Murdoch press has been running is no coincidence. That News Ltd owns Newspoll is also no coincidence. When you’re running a scam, a big one, you can only get away with it once. I am suggesting that this was their one-time attempt to cook the books, at least in the polling area. They have cooked the books many times in other areas under their control, and have been doing so for decades. Things have happened in News Ltd papers that only the most paranoid would believe were genuine. The doubters have had “conspiracy theory” written all over them. But in the end they have been true.

So why not go the next step and rig a poll at a critical time? Tell me no-one’s ever thought of that idea at News, and I’ll get the Opera House delivered to your door, cheap.

So a change in primary wont mean a commensurate change in satisfaction or PPM.

The parties have their own internal polling. They know what is going on. Their stuff might be better than newspoll too – longitudinal and all o’ that…

If newspoll are cooking the books, they will have to keep cooking the books. Expect a whistle-blower fed up with it to out it. It is a nonsense, and you should know this.

Almost certainly a statistical outlier – we will have a better picture in a few days, and certainty in a few weeks.

Remember – the trend is your friend. This is seriously off-trend.

BB

But you could see Rudd’s full frontal on the ‘denialists’ as a high stakes gambit to shift the media’s attention from a boatfull of Sri Lankan refugees and therefore that Newspoll.

At least, that’s what I thought.

Yes, of course, but Rudd can walk and chew gum at the same time, can’t he? Until he knew the poll was an outlier for sure, he had to go on the front foot and try to calm the situation down, a situation that was being ramped up by News Ltd. hacks as the “end of the honeymoon”. If Rudd had just sat back and done nothing the poll might have become self-fulfilling. I think it was admirable caution on Rudd’s part and another instance of the News stooges underestimating him.

Look at the coverage of the week. It is now all concentrated on Rudd’s speech and Murdoch’s response to it. The Newspoll has been forgotten.

Score that as a tactical victory for Rudd. If they want a war, he’ll give them one.

News Ltd simply has to have engaged in some degree of push polling here to milk the circumstances. As the proud owners of Fox News, with newspaper circulation in turmoil – one could very readily expect that this was intentional and sensational.

Most News Ltd columnists are simply wage slaves writing something to wrap the ads around, to keep a roof over their heads and their booze fridge full, and they are generally better stringers than Fairfax. Really, our newspapers are perfect for covering burning issues such as Britney Spears concerts.

Why do we expect more from print such as The Oz, than Today Tonight. It’s the same calibre journalism delivered through different platforms.

Australian political blogs are infinitely more responsible, balanced and credible. How did we survive without them?

I’ll get back to everyone this afternoon – domesticity is calling.

But you could see Rudd’s full frontal on the ‘denialists’ as a high stakes gambit to shift the media’s attention from a boatfull of Sri Lankan refugees and therefore that Newspoll.

At least, that’s what I thought.

When I tried to point out on said ‘journalist’s’ blog that the inferences being made about what this Newspoll meant were utterly fatuous, I did not get my post through, but rather got a curt email response:

“Come on. Morgan poll ?

You cannot be serious.”

It went down hill from there!

When I pointed out that no one could make any assumptions from ONE poll so way out of whack, the ‘journalist’ attacked me…get this for shouting in CAPITAL LETTERS!

Instead of answering even one concern about the statistical improbability of this poll, all I got was ad hominem attacks.

Not the brightest candle in the candelabra, one could easily conclude.