Comments for Pollytics

Comment on Global Warming and CPRS Polling by james mcdonald

james mcdonald — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 16:47:36 +0000

Labor Outsider – that’s what he’ll do. Turnbull will use this to clear out some of the troublemakers after a vote, which he will win.
Something I read about Castro, he told a trusted army general to try and put together a coup against him. To flush out all those disloyal among the elite. All but the double-agent general were cleaned up at the end. Not that Minchin or Tuckey would sacrifice themselves for Turnbull, but that’s what they may as well be doing. After this Turnbull might actually be able to lead the party.

It’s also interesting that the Libs, not the Nats, talked Labor into including rewards for farmers sequestering carbon in the soil. According to the Wentworth scientists group, the farmers would benefit from this even if the climate isn’t threatened.

Comment on ANU Poll – Public Perceptions of Rural Issues by Possum Comitatus

Possum Comitatus — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 15:46:04 +0000

Zombie and Frank – it’s a corker aint it!

The tough, resilient, self sufficient public perceptions of RARA land on the one hand, vs. the 80% that believe “The government needs to do something!!” on the other.

Not to mention those lazy, initiative lacking yet strangely sophisticated city slickers!

I love it when pollsters highlight our predilection for bullshit.

Comment on ANU Poll – Public Perceptions of Rural Issues by Possum Comitatus

Possum Comitatus — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 15:41:20 +0000

Frank went:

I wonder what proportion of Crikerions are urban vs rural? Is anyone game to say?

I couldn’t tell you about Crikey as a whole, but in this corner of the Crikey universe, the IP logs of the site suggest that we’re pretty much representative of the broader Australian population distribution in terms of capital city vs minor metro center vs the rest.

Comment on ANU Poll – Public Perceptions of Rural Issues by zombie mao for Alannah

zombie mao for Alannah — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 12:19:25 +0000

It’s called Agricultural Socialism. Give us all the cash and welfare, the rest of Oz can get f**ked.

That’s the National Party manifesto anyway.

Comment on Global Warming and CPRS Polling by Labor Outsider

Labor Outsider — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 09:41:07 +0000

“With the Coalition, the cost/benefit risk of their opposition to the CPRS is pretty dangerous – they’re almost caught in a lose/lose situation. If they pass the CPRS, 45% of their voters will disagree with the party’s actions, while if they prevent the legislation from passing, 37% of their voters will disagree with their actions – that is a substantial chunk of political grief lurking in the background regardless of what they ultimately do.”

I wonder whether this is entirely true. This paragraph assumes that the opinion of coalition supporters on climate change issues is exogenous to the stance taken by the party on such issues. While true for some, for others, their own view is probably shaped by the party’s own scepticism. If the coalition leadership took a proper stand on supporting both the science and the need to act, coalition supporters’ views might be more sympathetic as well. I imagine there will also be a difference here between rusted on supporters and more marginal supporters and it is probably the case that at least some people in the ALP camp would think more favourably toward the coalition if they looked more sensible on the issue. Appealing to the party’s base just seems like a losing proposition unless they are convinced that support for the government’s position is very very soft. This is especially the case when thinking about the demographic trends running against the coalition.

If I were Turnbull I’d call Minchin’s bluff…pass the legislation with some amendments and let him and his supporters cross the floor. If there is then a leadership challenge – bring it on. If he wins, his leadership is strengthened. If he loses, well, he can leave the party to its annihilation at the next election.

Comment on This day in 2007 by William Conroy

William Conroy — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 09:03:22 +0000

nothing worse than being the only sober one in the room or arriving late and trying to catch up but a great result

Comment on ANU Poll – Public Perceptions of Rural Issues by David Richards

David Richards — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 08:54:52 +0000

With regard to the bit about tolerance of others – that’s vastly overcooked. Both rural and urban Aussies are grossly intolerant of anyone who does not conform to a rather narrow set of criteria.

Comment on ANU Poll – Public Perceptions of Rural Issues by Possum Comitatus

Possum Comitatus — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 08:16:16 +0000

Sorry Frank – I was trying to hunt down the latest exact figures. The proportion of the sample made up of people living in major cities would be between 66% and 73% by my reckoning, taking into account the actual population distribution of Australia and the probabilities involved in getting the sample itself.

The ANU Poll methodology doesnt say what it uses for post-stratification weighting, so rather than getting an exact figure, we have a small spectrum of possibilities.

Comment on ANU Poll – Public Perceptions of Rural Issues by Darryl Rosin

Darryl Rosin — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 08:12:04 +0000

From the linked report:

” The survey is a national random sample
of the adult population aged 18 years and over conducted by telephone.
In this survey, 1,200 people were interviewed between 31 August and 15
September 2009, with a response rate of 40.3 per cent. The results have
been weighted to represent the national population. ”

Comment on Peak Wingnut by AB? AB? Who the * is AB? « OzPolitik

AB? AB? Who the * is AB? « OzPolitik — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 07:44:02 +0000

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