Politics, elections and piffle plinking

Tag Archives: Australian Politics

The polling isn’t as exciting as it looks

November 17, 2009 – 9:02 am

With pollster and electorate volatility apparently running rampant over the last few weeks, it’s worth taking a closer look at exactly what went on.
If we chart the first differences of each pollster since August – the amount that the two party preferred estimate has changed since the previous poll of that pollster – we [...]

By Possum Comitatus | Posted in Polling, pollytrend | Also tagged , , , , , , , , , , | Comments (9)

Newspoll Tuesday -what was all the fuss about edition.

November 17, 2009 – 5:59 am

Newspoll via The Oz today comes in with the primaries running 43 (up 2)/ 37 (down 4) to the ALP, washing out into a two party preferred of 56/44 the same way – a 4 point gain to Labor since last fortnights Newspoll. This comes from a sample of 1162 for an MoE of around [...]

By Possum Comitatus | Posted in newspoll | Also tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , | Comments (11)

Essential Report – Equal lowest ever for the ALP

November 16, 2009 – 3:26 pm

The equal worst Essential Report for the ALP comes in with the primaries running 45 (down 3) /39 ( up 4) to Labor, washing out into a two party preferred of 55/45 the same way – a 4 point gain to the Coalition. The Greens are on 9 (steady) while the broad “Others” are on [...]

By Possum Comitatus | Posted in Essential Report | Also tagged , , , , , , | Comments (7)

Morgan and a Pollytrend Update

November 13, 2009 – 2:47 pm

Morgan has released a face to face poll from last weekend with the primaries running 46.5 (down 4.5)/38.5 (up 6) to Labor, washing out into a two party preferred of 56/44, a 5 point gain for the Coalition. The Greens are on 8 (down 1.5) while the broad others are on 7 steady.This comes from [...]

By Possum Comitatus | Posted in morgan, pollytrend | Also tagged , , , , , , , | Comments (10)

What if you were a pollster and produced an outlier?

November 10, 2009 – 11:19 am

Would you publish?
We know outliers are inevitable, they’re something that cannot be avoided – but from a pollster’s perspective, running a poll where your results look a little iffy becomes a bit of a two edged sword. Regardless of whether they publish or not, ultimately they lose in the short term.
If they take the “publish [...]

By Possum Comitatus | Posted in Polling | Also tagged , | Comments (51)

Essential Report – political approval and the economy

November 10, 2009 – 6:12 am

This week’s Essential Report has the primaries coming in 48 (down 1) /35 (steady) to Labor, washing out into a two party preferred of 59/41 the same way – no change since last week. The Greens are on 9 (up 1) while the broad “Others” are sitting on 8 (steady). This comes from a two [...]

By Possum Comitatus | Posted in Essential Report | Also tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , | Comments (9)

Asylum Seeker Polling – Three Pollsters

November 9, 2009 – 9:00 am

Today we have some results on the public perception of asylum seeker policy issues from both Newspoll and Nielsen. When combined with last week’s Essential Report questions on the same issue, all three pollsters turn out to be pretty consistent with each other, only differing by amounts we’d expect from slightly different question wording. First [...]

By Possum Comitatus | Posted in Essential Report, newspoll, nielsen | Also tagged , , , , , , , , , | Comments (19)

Honeymoon Restored

November 9, 2009 – 5:52 am

Not that it actually stopped to begin with, we have this months Nielsen today in Fairfax (demographic tables here) coming in with the primaries running 45 (down 1)/ 38 (up 1) to Labor, washing out into a two party preferred of 56/44 the same way – a one point increase to the Coalition since the [...]

By Possum Comitatus | Posted in nielsen | Also tagged , , , , , , , , | Comments (14)

New Pollytrend Metric – Phone Pollster Trend

November 8, 2009 – 11:25 am

We all know about our Pollytrend chart – where we build a rolling average of the most recent poll from each pollster weighted by sample size, then run an aggressive locally weighted polynomial regression through the results to give us an adaptive trend line. While Pollytrend is good for picking up medium term shifts in [...]

By Possum Comitatus | Posted in pollytrend | Also tagged , , , , , , , , , | Comments (22)

Morgan Adds Outlier Weight to Newspoll

November 6, 2009 – 5:18 pm

Morgan has cheekily come in a week early, giving us the first week of what is usually a two week Face to Face poll with the primaries running 51 (down 1) /32.5 (down 2) to Labor, washing out into a two party preferred of 61/39 the same way – a half a point increase to [...]

By Possum Comitatus | Posted in morgan | Also tagged , , , , , , , , , , | Comments (58)