Politics, elections and piffle plinking

Tag Archives: electoral demography

Unemployment by Electorate – Part 2

August 2, 2009 – 10:36 am

Just a quick update from Friday’s post on unemployment by electorate – and for those reading this that haven’t seen the previous post, it’s probably worth having a squiz to know what’s going on.
I’ve redone the maps of Adelaide, Sydney, Brisbane and Melbourne regions in a much easier to understand format.
The cross-hatched areas show the [...]

By Possum Comitatus | Posted in Employment, Pseph | Also tagged , , , | Comments (12)

The Greens and Electoral Roll Expansion

July 29, 2009 – 9:37 am

When the ALP recently floated the idea of allowing 16 and 17 year olds to vote, the thing that struck me was, firstly, how so many Greens were in favour of the idea and secondly, how so many Libs opposed it.
Being a cynic and believing that even with the cute and cuddly Greens, 90% of [...]

By Possum Comitatus | Posted in Greens, Pseph | Also tagged , , , , , | Comments (51)

Gen Blue – Coalition Mortality and Electoral Decline

May 15, 2009 – 9:55 am

The near conclusion of the long running saga called the Coalition’s Demographic Train Wreck.
After spending the last year and a half ferreting out every bit of 2007 election polling I could get my hands on, I think we might have – finally – a good set of estimates for the two party preferred vote at [...]

By Possum Comitatus | Posted in Election Forecasting, Leading Indicators, Political Risk, Polling, Pseph, Voting behaviour, census data, election results, strategy | Also tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Comments (66)

150K Thresholds – the electoral demography.

May 14, 2009 – 4:33 pm

This was the article I had in the Crikey mail earlier today:
In terms of electoral demography — the who lives where, earning what, and how they vote, framework — the two big issues coming out of the budget are the $150,000 household income threshold being the primary means testing weapon on the one hand, and the increase in the [...]

By Possum Comitatus | Posted in Crikey, strategy | Also tagged , , , , , | Comments (8)

Spiffy Toys – Infographic Electoral Demography

May 7, 2009 – 10:28 am

Some of you may have been wondering why the electoral demographic profiles haven’t been updated of late. The answer is pretty simple, I couldn’t be bothered to create 150 separate posts, nor do the tedious charting work that went into them. So instead of going down that silly route, I found a much better way. [...]

By Possum Comitatus | Posted in Pseph, Seat of the Day, Spiffy Toys, census data, election results | Also tagged , , , , , , | Comments (16)

Total Stimulus – Electoral Effects

February 4, 2009 – 9:48 am

Yesterday we had a quick squiz at the fiscal side of the stimulus package in terms of which electorates would be expected to get the largest shares of the stimulus pie – those with high proportions of Family Tax Benefit recipients on the one hand and those seats with high proportions of school kids on [...]

By Possum Comitatus | Posted in Pseph, census data | Also tagged , , , , , , | Comments (5)

The Liberal Party Left Flank

January 30, 2009 – 11:03 am

I often bang on incessantly about the dubious sustainability of the twin support bases of the Coalition – the social conservative, big government demographic on the one hand and the socially progressive, smallish government demographic on the other. While neither of these two groups are particularly large in the broader electoral scheme of things, they [...]

By Possum Comitatus | Posted in Political Risk, Pseph, census data | Also tagged , , , , , , , , , , , | Comments (19)

Seat of the Day: Bruce

January 29, 2009 – 11:20 am

The last of the 19 “B” seats brings us to the Victorian outer metro seat of Bruce.

2007 Election Result and Two Party Preferred History

Party
LP
ALP
GRN
NP
FFP
OTH

07 Primary
37.57
51.85
5.09
0
2.85
2.6

Age Profile, Family Composition, Housing and Migration

By Possum Comitatus | Posted in Seat of the Day | Also tagged , , , , | Comments (1)

Seat of the Day: Brisbane

January 28, 2009 – 2:34 pm

Today’s seat of the day is the inner metro and rather interesting QLD seat of Brisbane.

2007 Election Result and Two Party Preferred History

Party
LP
ALP
GRN
NP
FFP
OTH

07 Primary
39.4
45.04
11.8
0
1.41
2.4

Age Profile, Family Composition, Housing and Migration

By Possum Comitatus | Posted in Seat of the Day | Also tagged , , , , | Comments (0)

Seat of the Day: Brand

January 27, 2009 – 8:23 am

Our first WA seat of the list, the provincial seat of Brand.

2007 Election Result and Two Party Preferred History

By Possum Comitatus | Posted in Seat of the Day | Also tagged , , , , | Comments (5)