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Tag Archives: LOESS

New Pollytrend Metric – Phone Pollster Trend

November 8, 2009 – 11:25 am

We all know about our Pollytrend chart – where we build a rolling average of the most recent poll from each pollster weighted by sample size, then run an aggressive locally weighted polynomial regression through the results to give us an adaptive trend line. While Pollytrend is good for picking up medium term shifts in [...]

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Pollytrend – Fading Coalition Edition

August 11, 2009 – 8:47 am

Now that this polling cycle is complete, we can update our Pollytrend to see whether the underlying trend in the cumulative polling results have changed.
Throwing in the new data for this fortnight and comparing this cycle’s Pollytrend with where our trend line was last fortnight gives us:

This cycle we’ve had Morgan Phone come in up [...]

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Pollytrack Saturday

September 27, 2008 – 10:17 am

Pollytrack comes in late this week as we were waiting for a special Morgan Phone poll to be published that was taken after the Turnbull leadership change. Due to leadership changes being a rather influential event on the polling metrics, we’ll have to do a few unusual things for this week’s Pollytrack observation.
Firstly, we’ll remove [...]

By Possum Comitatus | Posted in Pollytrack | Also tagged , , , , , , , , , , | Comments (6)