Politics, elections and piffle plinking

Tag Archives: morgan

Global Warming and CPRS Polling

Morgan released a telephone poll yesterday (split into two parts) that looks at public perceptions of global warming and views on the current CPRS legislation. It was a phone poll running off a sample of 674, giving us an MoE that maxes out around the 3.8% mark.
The first question asked was “Which of the [...]

Weekend Polling

Via The Oz and Newspoll comes some specific Qld marginal seat polling undertaken in the six electorates of Dawson, Flynn, Bowman, Dickson, Longman and Herbert. The average two party preferred in these marginals was given as 54/46 to the ALP.
That equates to an average swing of 2.7% to Labor in these six electorates (The Oz [...]

Morgan and a Pollytrend Update

Morgan has released a face to face poll from last weekend with the primaries running 46.5 (down 4.5)/38.5 (up 6) to Labor, washing out into a two party preferred of 56/44, a 5 point gain for the Coalition. The Greens are on 8 (down 1.5) while the broad others are on 7 steady.This comes from [...]

Morgan Adds Outlier Weight to Newspoll

Morgan has cheekily come in a week early, giving us the first week of what is usually a two week Face to Face poll with the primaries running 51 (down 1) /32.5 (down 2) to Labor, washing out into a two party preferred of 61/39 the same way – a half a point increase to [...]

Pollytrend and Odds and Ends

Throwing the last polling cycle’s worth of data into the Pollytrend algorithm, we can see that Newspoll produced no discernible change in the trend line – which is to be expected, since our trend here measures how all polls move together and it can adapt to outliers.

Also worth having a squiz at are three charts [...]

Monday’s Leadership Polling

Three new polls to have a look at today over the Coalition leadership – Nielsen (Oct 8-10, sample size =1400), Newspoll (Oct 9-11, sample size =1153) and  Morgan Phone Poll (Oct 7-8, sample size 549). Both Nielsen and Newspoll used Turnbull, Hockey and Abbott as response options, allowing us a direct comparison:

Normally, when you get [...]

Do Pollsters Lean?

One of the regular questions that pop up when it comes to Australian political polling is whether the pollsters have a bias toward one party or another when it comes to the results of their respective vote estimates. Even though “bias” is a technically correct way to describe what we’re looking at here, it unfortunately [...]

Pollytrend:Did the budget change the polling trends?

OK sports fans – as promised we’ll have a bit of a squiz at these post-budget polls collectively to see if there was a trend change – and to do this we’ll use our Pollytrend model. For those that don’t have a clue what I’m talking about, just click here for an explanation.
The reason we [...]

Did Beazley Suffer by Opposing Tax Cuts?

There’s an awful lot of talk around the traps about how Beazley suffered immense damage from opposing the 2005 tax cuts. In one respect that’s very true – Beazley’s approval ratings went down the gurgler, although they were already starting to go that way before he made his tax stand.
However, the vote estimates are a [...]

The Daily Dump – 20th Sep

I too have fallen victim to the great Internode email catastrophe – so anyone that tried to mail me from yesterday afternoon onwards on my Node mail addresses, I haven’t seen it for I still can’t access my mail accounts. The Yahoo address might be best for communications over the weekend.
The polling fairy must have [...]