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Tag Archives: pollytrend

The polling isn’t as exciting as it looks

November 17, 2009 – 9:02 am

With pollster and electorate volatility apparently running rampant over the last few weeks, it’s worth taking a closer look at exactly what went on.
If we chart the first differences of each pollster since August – the amount that the two party preferred estimate has changed since the previous poll of that pollster – we [...]

By Possum Comitatus | Posted in Polling, pollytrend | Also tagged , , , , , , , , , , | Comments (9)

New Pollytrend Metric – Phone Pollster Trend

November 8, 2009 – 11:25 am

We all know about our Pollytrend chart – where we build a rolling average of the most recent poll from each pollster weighted by sample size, then run an aggressive locally weighted polynomial regression through the results to give us an adaptive trend line. While Pollytrend is good for picking up medium term shifts in [...]

By Possum Comitatus | Posted in pollytrend | Also tagged , , , , , , , , , | Comments (22)

Pollytrend and Odds and Ends

November 5, 2009 – 7:59 am

Throwing the last polling cycle’s worth of data into the Pollytrend algorithm, we can see that Newspoll produced no discernible change in the trend line – which is to be expected, since our trend here measures how all polls move together and it can adapt to outliers.

Also worth having a squiz at are three charts [...]

By Possum Comitatus | Posted in pollytrend | Also tagged , , , , , , | Comments (16)

Pollytrend and Vote Floors

September 9, 2009 – 7:16 am

Looking at the Labor two party preferred for this polling cycle, we’ve seen Essential Report move +3 over the period, Morgan Face to Face +3 while Newspoll was steady.
Last cycle our Pollytrend line had a hit a turning point, developing a disposition to move towards the Coalition this cycle should the poll results over the [...]

By Possum Comitatus | Posted in pollytrend | Also tagged , , , , , , , | Comments (6)

Pollytrend – The August State of Play

August 25, 2009 – 9:12 am

During the polling cycle of the last fortnight, on the ALP two party preferred we’ve had Nielsen come in down 2 to 56 from June and Newspoll come in down 2 to 55 from last fortnight. Morgan Face to Face was down 2.5 to 58 from late July/early August and Essential moved down 2 from [...]

By Possum Comitatus | Posted in pollytrend | Also tagged , , , , , | Comments (1)

Pollytrend – Fading Coalition Edition

August 11, 2009 – 8:47 am

Now that this polling cycle is complete, we can update our Pollytrend to see whether the underlying trend in the cumulative polling results have changed.
Throwing in the new data for this fortnight and comparing this cycle’s Pollytrend with where our trend line was last fortnight gives us:

This cycle we’ve had Morgan Phone come in up [...]

By Possum Comitatus | Posted in pollytrend | Also tagged , , , , | Comments (10)

Requestathon – long trends edition

July 22, 2009 – 6:48 am

Since there’s been a few requests of late, we might as well make it formal. Is there a piece of analysis you’d like to see done, a chart constructed, a graphic made or some other piece of stuff we deal with here gone over again? If so, whack it in comments and we’ll see what [...]

By Possum Comitatus | Posted in requestathon | Also tagged , , , , | Comments (19)

Pollytrend – Where the polling now sits.

June 29, 2009 – 4:31 pm

The end of the trend is nigh. Plugging the poll figures from this cycle into our Pollytrend algorithm – the locally weighted polynomial regression we run through an All Pollster pooled aggregation weighted by sample size -  shows how  the medium term trend running against the ALP since April has now bottomed out, even popping [...]

By Possum Comitatus | Posted in pollytrend | Also tagged , , , , , , , , , | Comments (9)

Newspoll – on trend or undercooked?

June 16, 2009 – 8:30 am

This fortnight’s Newspoll via The Oz comes in with the primaries running 41 (down 2) / 40 (up 2) to Labor, washing out into a two party preferred of 53/47 the same way, a two point drop for the ALP since last fortnight. This comes from sample of 1148 giving an MoE that maxes out [...]

By Possum Comitatus | Posted in newspoll, pollytrend | Also tagged , , , , , , , , , , , | Comments (11)

Pollytrend – 6 weeks of ALP decline.

June 2, 2009 – 10:30 am

As you can see from the Pollytrend graphic in the sidebar on the right, the government has taken a chunky hit over the last 6 weeks or so. If we blow that out to take in the entire period of the Rudd government, we can see that the Coalition is currently equalling their best period [...]

By Possum Comitatus | Posted in Polling, pollytrend | Also tagged , , , , , | Comments (6)