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The Long View

This is Pollytics own historical two party preferred vote estimates dating back to 1985. Over the period, Newspoll didn’t always provide two party preferred estimates and Nielsen had a period where they didnt poll at all. This seeks to fill in the gap.

The estimates are based on Newspoll primary vote data and preferences have been distributed according to a moving spectrum. In each term of government, preferences start being distributed as they were at the previous election and slowly change over the term of government to be distributed as they were at each forthcoming election. The speed of that change was calculated using polling data from a vast array of sources which asked voters how they would distribute their preferences.

The way to use the gadget is simple – as you move your mouse along the lines, the value of the 2PP vote for each party appears to one decimal place, along with the date of the poll on the bottom. If you wish to inspect a period of time more closely, simply left click and drag to highlight a period and it will automatically zoom in to that period. To zoom out, click the “Show all” button on the top right.

If you wish to turn the Coalition or ALP lines on or off, click the little blue and red boxes at the bottom. As always, ALP is red and the Coalition are blue.

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