Many of our readers have noted on the way Andrew Bolt throws graphs into his climate change posts, without necessarily explaining anything about what the graph is purported to show. Sometimes it’s hard to figure out what they are supposed to show; sometimes they seem to display the opposite of what he is talking about. Sometimes we get links to the source; sometimes we don’t.
There’s a vigorous academic debate going on about one of the graphs Bolt made use of in a post yesterday:
In fact, says distinguished climatologist Professor Roger Pielke Sr, none of that seems true.
To give Bolt credit, he links to one part of that debate – a post at the site of one of Bolt’s favourite climate commentary sources, Anthony Watts (and it is apparently Watts who added the “FLAT” to the original graph). Watts was reposting content from a blog post by Roger Pielke in which he alleged the RealClimate blog had spread “misinformation”. But there’s no sign of him updating his post to include the other side – RealClimate has responded with a strong and detailed rebuttal of Pielke’s claims. There’s more coverage at Deltoid as well. In essence, these sites argue that Pielke’s claim (and Watts’s even stronger assertion that the graph since 2006 is “FLAT”) is wrong in two ways – (i) such a short-term interval is not a reliable observation period for drawing conclusions about climate change, and (ii) even if it was, the trend in that period is still positive.
Of course, even if Andrew Bolt’s readers followed the link he provided in this case, they wouldn’t be exposed to the argument over methods and interpretation. It’s ironic that he claims to want open debate on these issues, and that he implies it’s those on the other side of the argument who skew their presentation of the evidence.
(NB: It’s also worth noting that in a later update to the same post, Bolt claims that the Mann “hockey stick” has been debunked.)
UPDATE: The debate continues with a new post by Pielke.
57 Comments
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How true tee, how true.
Zoot:
You’re winging this aren’t you? You have absolutely no idea what this about?
tee: It is quite obvious. Your level of debate has been quite ill founded. You ask if someone is going to comment about the graph and the supposed “flatness” in the period 2006-2008. Even though you link a reference that states that an 11 year smoothing is too narrow.
Besides the self pwning you achieved through that comment if you take time to look at the graph and compare the 60 day trend (which is way too short to make much sense out of anyway) you will note that there was only brief peaks and a 2-3 month period when the line was above the 20 gridline. At the start of 2008 the line was below the gridline for a month or so and has not been below since.
So are you stating you are picking out a particular date in each year to compare this flatness??? As a lot of commetators do – It hasn’t warmed since 1998 comes to mind.
And please refrain from the name calling and personal abuse. It does not add to your argument. In fact it makes the rest of your argument look silly.
dam buster: tobias has made it quite clear (not that he needed to) that every other commenter on this thread understands the issue and the premise of his post. everyone that is except tee.
the only conclusion is either tee is exceptionally illiterate, or s/he is a troll. either way, continually responding to the mindless ranting will only encourage more mindless ranting, and drive you mad with having to issue constant clarifications as your comments are continually twisted and turned into different meanings. tobias is right: not responding is the best approach.
Great posts tee!
There’s a few angles that I don’t think have been brought up yet.
The first is how much of the graph trend is natural(therefore null) due to ;”The Sun Is More Active Now Than Over The Last 8000 Years”
http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Newsroom/view.php?old=2004102817775
The Critical Importance of Solar Cycles – by Stephen Wilde
http://climaterealists.com/index.php?id=3651&linkbox=true
A real no brainer to work out that the most,if not ALL of the upward trend is of natural origin,So in fact the devation of the last 6?yrs near the top of the graph is the beginning of the next trend as the Sun goes into its next phase(maunder minimum) for 20?,30?,40?,60,or even 100 yrs WILL with absolute certainty keep that trend going.
Any betts?
Solar Physicist Predicts Ice Age. What happened to global warming?
http://climaterealists.com/index.php?id=3693&linkbox=true
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(1)
NASA Says Climate Shifting to Cooler Temperatures
The allegedly warming earth is in for about 30 years of cooling according to NASA
http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2006/10may_longrange.htm
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(2)
New Peer-Reviewed Study Says Global Warming Takes a Break for Nearly 20 Years?
http://epw.senate.gov/public/index.cfm?FuseAction=Minority.Blogs&ContentRecord_id=a17defa8-802a-23ad-4912-8ab7138a7c3f&Issue_id=#update
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(3)
We’re Getting Colder, Not Warmer
http://www.moonbattery.com/archives/2008/02/were_getting_co.html
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(4)
Widescale Global Cooling
http://www.dailytech.com/Temperature+Monitors+Report+Worldwide+Global+Cooling/article10866.htm
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(5)
The Coming of a New Ice Age
By Gerald E. Marsh Sunday, February 24, 2008
Yet another dissenter of the church of global warming. Gerald Marsh is a retired physicist from the Argonne National Laboratory and a former consultant to the Department of Defense on strategic nuclear technology and policy in the Reagan, Bush, and Clinton Administration.
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(6)
Russian Scientists Forecast Global Cooling in 6-9 Years – August 25, 2006. Created
Moscow – Researchers with the Russian Academy of Sciences warned Wednesday that the Earth could be headed for a 60-year cooldown, the news agency Interfax reported.
Scientists based at the academy’s Pulkovskaya Observatory in St Petersburg, Russia, said they expected a gradual decrease in global temperatures in 2012-15, followed by a more dramatic, 60-year period of cold to come in 2055-60.
Khabibullo Abdusamatov, chief researcher at the observatory, said the predictions were based on solar cycles, and that after the 60-year glimpse of the Ice Ages warmer weather could be expected
http://www.monstersandcritics.com/science/nature/news/article_1225169.php/Russian_scientists_predict_new_Ice_Age_in_50_years
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Victor Manuel Velasco Herrera of the Institute of Geophysics at the University of Mexico states that “In about ten years the Earth will enter a “little ice age” which will last from 60 to 80 years and may be caused by the decrease in solar activity,” according to a report in the major Mexican newspaper Milenio Diario.
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With 30 years of cooling,Look out agriculture. The wine industry, fruits and nut growers will be hit with a shorter growing season and more threats of frost-induced crop devastation, among other things.
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(9)
The Science of Global Warming in Perspective
News Flash: Twenty Year Cool-Down
Mainstream media ignores it
http://nov55.com/gbwm.html
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(10)
Solar Activity Diminishes; Researchers Predict Another Ice Age – Sunspots have all but vanished in recent years.
http://www.climatescienceinternational.org/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=31:vanishing-sunspots-prelude-to-global-cooling&catid=1:latest
Excerpt: Dr. Kenneth Tapping is worried about the sun. Solar activity comes in regular cycles, but the latest one is refusing to start. Sunspots have all but vanished, and activity is suspiciously quiet. The last time this happened was 400 years ago — and it signaled a solar event known as a “Maunder Minimum,” along with the start of what we now call the “Little Ice Age.” Tapping, a solar researcher and project director for Canada’s National Research Council, says it may be happening again. Overseeing a giant radio telescope he calls a “stethoscope for the sun,” Tapping says, if the pattern doesn’t change quickly, the earth is in for some very chilly weather. […] In 2005, Russian astronomer Khabibullo Abdusamatov predicted the sun would soon peak, triggering a rapid decline in world temperatures. Only last month, the view was echoed by Dr. Oleg Sorokhtin, a fellow of the Russian Academy of Natural Sciences. who advised the world to “stock up on fur coats.” Sorokhtin, who calls man’s contribution to climate change “a drop in the bucket,” predicts the solar minimum to occur by the year 2040, with icy weather lasting till 2100 or beyond. Observational data seems to support the claims — or doesn’t contradict it, at least. […] Researcher Dr. Timothy Patterson, director of the Geoscience Center at Carleton University, shares the concern. Patterson is finding “excellent correlations” between solar fluctuations, a relationship that historically, he says doesn’t exist between CO2 and past climate changes.
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Harmful Man Induced Climate Change (Global Warming) Refuted
“Our Global Climate Is Now Actually Now Cooling”
“The record cold of the decades of the 1890’s, 1940’s, 1970’s, 1980’s and most recently the bitter northern hemisphere winters of 2000-2001, 2001-2002, 2002-2003 argue against the occurrence of harmful man induced climate change (global warming). Also Winter 2000-2001 and 2004-2005 in Siberian Russia, as well as Winter 2004 in Antarctica were the coldest in recorded history. And let’s not forget that January 2004 in Boston, MA was the coldest January in 111 years. Grand Forks, ND set it’s all time record low of -44 deg. below zero F, Fosston, MN also at -50 deg. below zero F and Saskatchewan, Canada saw minimum temperatures fall to -62 deg. below zero F, all in Winter 2003-2004.”
“Satellite based systems that measure the complete land, ocean, atmosphere interface show a definite cooling trend between 1979-2004 of -0.5 deg, F.
Radiosonde balloon launches show no temperature change between 1960-2004. Antarctica has been cooling at the rate of 1.4 deg. F per every ten years for the past 20 years. Also between 1895 and 2004 January average temperature in Florida has fallen approximately 1 deg. F. Also glaciers in Greenland and Antarctica are expanding. How can that possibly be if harmful man induced climate change (global warming) is occurring???”
The Heartland Institute: Instant Expert’s Guide to Global Warming 1,000 Year Climate History Accurate “Thermometers” in Space – NASA
“Unlike the surface-based temperatures, global temperature measurements of the Earth’s lower atmosphere obtained from satellites reveal no definitive warming trend over the past two decades. The slight trend that is in the data actually appears to be downward. The largest fluctuations in the satellite temperature data are not from any man-made activity, but from natural phenomena such as large volcanic eruptions from Mt. Pinatubo, and from El Ni?o. So the programs which model global warming in a computer say the temperature of the Earth’s lower atmosphere should be going up markedly, but actual measurements of the temperature of the lower atmosphere reveal no such pronounced activity.” ?
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Global Cooling is Here! “63 new snowfall records”
“Evidence for Predicting Global Cooling for the Next Three Decades”
By Professor Don Easterbrook, Western Washington University.
http://icecap.us/index.php/go/joes-blog/global_cooling_is_here_evidence_for_predicting_global_cooling_for_the_next_
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(13)
Look to Mars for the truth on global warming
Global Warming on other planets.
The correlation of both HOT and COLD temperatures on Earth and Mars,Would the recent heavy snow falls here on Earth and the recent snowing of the Mars ice caps suggest’s the Sun plays a much larger role than the “negligible”role the IPCC.say.
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(14)
CO2 and methane continuing to rise Yet, temps are going DOWN,Exactly
the OPPOSITE tipping point to what was proposed !!
The world hasn’t warmed for a decade, and has even cooled for several years
http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/files/080718%20oped%20bolt%20global%20cooling.pdf
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Arctic permafrost regions have been through much higher temps in the past
and have not caused any thing like a tipping point.
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http://www.weatheraction.com/displayarticle.asp?a=50&c=1
From astrophysicist Piers Corbyn +44(0)7958713320 or office above
18 June 2009 For immediate release
“World cooling has set in and it will stay
colder for at least 100 years predicts
scientist in forecast breakthrough”
- Climate Change alarm has no merit
- Politicians called to “Practice what you preach on
accountability”
I really don’t have time to look at all of this, but I will note that the NASA article on solar activity relies heavily on tree core analysis, of the sort which we are told is unreliable when it comes to measuring past temperatures and CO2 levels. And even then, they make the point that “Whether this effect could have provided a significant contribution to the global warming of the Earth during the last century is an open question. The researchers around Sami K. Solanki stress the fact that solar activity has remained on a roughly constant (high) level since about 1980—apart from the variations due to the 11-year cycle—while the global temperature has experienced a strong further increase during that time.”
And that’s just the only one I looked at.
Good to see you back and taking an interest, chugg. You still don’t understand what you’re arguing about, but 10 out of 10 for enthusiasm!
… hang on, you’re quoting Bolt? As an authority?? Here???
Was the first draft of this screed written in crayon?
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