When the figures don’t fit the narrative
Yesterday saw a surprisingly strong GDP growth figure delivered by the ABS, which you would think would be welcomed by economics correspondents.
Peter Martin in the Sydney Morning Herald:
GDP. We’re booming, if you can believe it
The figures suggest Australians bought 4 per cent more food during the quarter, 6 per cent more transport services and 3 per cent more health services, outcomes described by UBS economist Scott Haslem as “positively unbelievable”…
THERE’S an old saying among economists: if a figure looks wrong, it usually is
These figures strain credulity. If they are right, then the economy has far more strength than we suspected. If they are wrong, they will be revised down, or followed by a fall.
Wayne Swan wants us to take pride in these figures. I would if I could believe them.
So now the Australian Bureau of Statistics in unreliable? When you combine these responses with the way the figures were played down yesterday it certainly appears that there’s more interest in hard data when it plays to the story that you want to write.
There is an argument that the figures look very good compared to the 0.6% growth that had been predicted before the ABS announcement and deserve to be questioned, but I wonder if there would have been so much disbelief in the data if it had been over half a per cent below expectations? I suspect that there would have been a gleeful rush to report bad figures rather than introspection about their quality.
I didn’t see figures on ABC Online at all yesterday. I think they had updated an analysts prediction from the morning with the results, but no actual article.
Interestingly the it was expected the figures would be good:
I had another look on ABC and there was one article at 5:25 pm: Shares tick higher after GDP surprise – in the context of reporting the share market results.
Economic Growth Up; Interest Rates Down; Infalation Down, Unemployment Down; Budget Returning to Surpluss: Bloody Julia Gillard!
I look forward to right wing pollies and punters telling us it’s not just the economy that matters.
“Economic Growth Up; Interest Rates Down; Infalation Down, Unemployment Down; Budget Returning to Surpluss: Bloody Julia Gillard!”
Yeah, but you wait and see what happens when that
BERInsulation Programflood levyNBNpaid parental leavecarbon tax kicks in!What’s the economy got to do with border security anyway. Because stop the boats and
budgiepeople smugglers in Canberra.Yeah it really sux when you own a massive media machine that wants to see an change of government and all this inconvenient good news keeps happening.
I thought when the Libs were in power there were the big 3 indicators that showed a government was doing a good job were low unemployment, low interest rates and low inflation.
We have those 3 now but apparently this is still the worst government in memory. Why? Well because Tony Abbott says so of course.
Really? Worse that the Fraser government with Howard as treasurer? The trifecta of high unemployment, inflation and interest rates? Hmmmmm, it would appear that the definition of good government is only supposed to be applied when they want it to be applied.
So what other measures? A surplus? Well it’s only a small surplus.
Growth? Oh shit what do we do with that one? Er… would have had more growth.