Gas prices are largely uncertain. The increasing certainty about LNG export from QLD would indicate significant price rises, however that depends on the supply vs export capacity vs domestic demand eqns. Most insiders assume that the Qld government will quarantine a % of all gas reserves for domestic consumption (similar to WA). Gas prices forecast are bi-modal, either around current values or more than double close to international LNG price-parity.

It could be worth asking what assumptions were made regarding residential energy consumption. Then ask what the has been assumed by regulated distribution and transmission companies. Most are forecasting a drop in per customer electricity consumption before the impact of ETS on prices.

Just a call out for any other potential questions on the treasury modelling that Christine can ask of Treasury in Senate Estimates tomorrow! Let us know via Senator.Milne@aph.gov.au if so.