Rundle Live

Waiting for the eternal first returns of the same

We’re all waiting for the first exit polls. In the meantime……

Desperation in the coverage has produced some great interviews over the past 24 – FOX tracked down one of the McCainiacs who had yelled at Walnuts during a town hall meeting – ‘get out and fight’ – while Mccain squirmed because he knew that what pleased his live crowds was pissing off the rest of the country.

This bloke made Joe the Plumber sound like Dag Hammarskold. ‘I’m concerned about socialism now I tell ya’ he said. When he blamed Obama for the bailout, even the increasingly long suffering Neil Cavuto had to bail him up.

Then, what did he think of the war and the surge ‘well i think we should get all US troops out of Europe. say wha – the last People for Nuclear Disarmament mole under deep cover? No it was a sort of why defend Europe from the Russian bear when it’s socialist goddam it.

Oh bliss bliss….

Jeri Thompson, the trophy wife of Law and Order star ex senator, ex hopeless candidate was up next. “I’m not just worried about Barack Obama, I’m worried about communism, and spreading the wealth etc…it’s deeply un-American’ ‘But uh Senator McCain’ said poor cavuto again ‘voted for the bailout bill which has to be the greatest socialisation of American assets in a century’ ….yes but i’m concerned about the fact that senator Obama voted for it’

Magnificent.

That pure cognitive dissonance, that utter inabaility to synthesise will stand us in good stead over the next 4,8,16, 24 years….?

Scenarios

1. Worst Case – the polls were wrong, the Bradley effect is through the roof, the kill the coal industry stuff circulates, and another big gaffe happens in the next 24.

McCain holds all the 04 Bush states and gets Pennslyvania and New Hampshire – McCain 311, Obama 226

2. Next worst

McCain takes Pennsyvlania only

McCain 307, Obama 230

3. Least worst,

McCain takes New Hampshire only

McCain 290, Obama 247.

4. No change

McCain 286, Obama 252*

*Kerry actually got 251 EC votes because some doofus in Minnesota voted for John Edwards his VP candidate, by accident

5. Obama minimal gain

Let’s assume that the Bradley effect etc throws the polls out by 12%, Obama takes only Iowa, for 7 EC votes

McCain 279, Obama 259

6. Add New Mexico

…erm add New Mexico

McCain 274, Obama 264

7. A tie! What fun!

…if you add Nevada

McCain 269, Obama 269

(in which case the House of Reps chooses the candidate, so victory Obama)

8. Victory in the New West

…substitute or add Colorado

McCain 265, Obama 273 (substitute)

McCain 260, Obama 278 (add)

9. Third tier stonking victory – anything around 4%

Gives Obama Ohio, Florida and Virginia

McCain 199, Obama 339

10. Absolute pure bloody masscare

Add marginals North Carolina and Missouri

McCain 173, Obama 365

11. Wipe-out

Add red states in the margin of error: Indiana, North Dakota

McCain 159, Obama 379

12. The Poll-buster

Presumes Obama’s vote was underestimated because of a lage between social change – mobile phones, voter drives online etc – and polling estimates – give Obama everything leaning less than 3.5% to the GOP

..add Montana and Georgia

McCain 141, Obama 397

13. The Turkey slap

…McCain loses Arizona as well (currently holding with only 3.7% average)

McCain 131, Obama 407

14. The reverse Bradley

Republican voters couldnt bring themselves to admit they would vote for Obama – Obama wins West Virginia and South Dakota

McCain 123, Obama 415

OK, so no chance of that latter happening, and it will probably be some combo – get Ohio, lose Florida, get Virginia miss out on Nevada etc.

But 415…a man can dream, a man can dream….

Obama’s coal fired smoking pistol

12.30am US EST/4.30pm Oz EST

The GOP have found a good bit of stick to beat Obama with – a San Francisco Chronicle interview he did in Feb 2008 talking about cap and trade restrictions on carbon output – especially by coal stations. People can try and build a coal station (meaning a non-clean coal one, if there is such a thing as clean coal) Obama said, but the carbon on-costs would bankrupt them.

He was saying it deliberately tough, because of course, he was competing in the California primary and he was pitching in Frisco for the tie die vote….it’s Bidenesque in its gaucheness….’under this plan, electricity prices will skyrocket’

Jesus dude. why not just add ‘ and when youre out i’ll come round and stick your toothbrush up my arse’ and have done with it

It might be projective back memory, but I do vaguely recall hearing that quote at the time and thiking ‘ooh err that’s a bit of a keeper’

FOX news broke it in the way they usually do – by blaming the media for hiding it. Apparently none of their cameras and researc- ahh why bother?

In any case it’s another thing the Mccain campaign should have found and used weeks ago, especially if they were focused on coal country Pennyslvania.

Hells bells it was an interview in one of the country’s top 10 newspapers for goddsake. Didnt they have researchers going through all that backwards and sideways?

Of course not. They were all out accessorising Sarah Palin

Probably too late to really crimp Obama. But not good, not good at all

Joe strikes again

Joe the Plumber is on the Neil Cavuto show….

JOE: well Barack Obama’s rich and he’s up on the hill and we’re down here,  and he doesn’t want us to get up there, and having dinners, and buying stuff…

Later….

JOE: I don’t make six figures, not even close…

The man would be close to a thousand dollars a year better off under Obama’s plan, which would presumably buy the occasional dining out experience -

The man is an idiot. No wonder they don’t let him near anyone except FIXED news.

Meghan McCain…

…is a bit of a chubby one, have you noticed ? Cindy looks like a feeder to me. Fatten the kid up and then make cracks all through her adolescence ’sweetheart don’t wear the scarlet until you’ve lost a few gallons, otherwise people will think you’re going to a fancy dress party as a red state…hand mommy her drink will you….’

Course she’s thoroughly behind the war on terror, so her imminent military service will toughen her up

i’m just sayin…..

Sheridan on realclearpolitics

Greg Sheridan’s Australian op-ed got the number two slot on realclearpolitics today, saying that the us electionwas one of the most boring in memory…

really greg? is that how it looks from surrey hills.

look you worthless bearded grouper twunt, you say that simply because you hate the result.. In middle amrica,where you never go, when you go at all, obama is leading on the basis of tax credits, health insurance job creation etc etc

but let the right luxuriate in the idea that culture and indeitty has lost them this election…no, politics lost this election and the fact that they havent recognised that people are making the decision are looking for something that will leave them ten dollars better off…is ameasureof basic rationality. people made this decicision in full rationlity . ya es da dia!

McCain on SNL

John Macca has just appeared on Saturday Night Live. Two appearances – in the ‘cold opener’ , with Tina Fey as Sarah Palin doing s fake ‘home shopping channel’ segment, and then a spot in the weekend update segment. Both of them genuinely funny.

For McCain supporters, worryingly so. Obama as witnessed by his recent daily show appearance is your perfect nerd in comedy appearances – awkward daggy he plays along like a martian following instructions for these weird human games….

By contrast McCain? Into it. Totally into it. McCain has comic timing, he can hold a punchline back for an eighth of a second  to get the laugh. He has comic tone – delivering lines with just the right mix of sincerity and irony to leave the whole thing in question.

This is why McCain has lost.

He lost, because deep down, he didnt really really want it.

What he really wanted to be was one of the guys, one of the gang. He was perfectly attuned to the idea of SNL, while Obama used the excuse of Hurricane Gustav to cancel an appearance – one he never rebooked.

Lets face it, McCain, the forurh generation goof up navy guy, would rather be a comedain than a politician – he really wants to get out of any role ordained for him…

Man he was funny….

Palin, sexism, Tracee Hutchinson

 

Look it’ s someone else’s job to bag Tracee Hutchinson, but I suspect that her most recent article , for the Saturday Age,  on the alleged discrimination against Sarah Palin, won’t get that attention it deserves from that quarter.

Hutchinson argues several things

1) that the attention paid to Palin’s personal choics, dress etc has been sexist and wouldnt be applied to men

2) that she’s being held up to  a standard not applied to men, and

3) that a lot of the comedy in the Us election campaign has been unfairly focused on her

Sorry, but this is all bullshit.  Let’s take the  dress stuff first. Palin had been running on the idea that she was an average suburban ‘hockey mon’ who understood the struggle of middle class people – middle class being the US code word for working class, because that marxisant term cant be suggested …. spending 150 large which is four years average wages – yes despite what youve heard most of the US is poor – is not a great idea, and appears to have cost Palin about 5% in the polls.

Hutchinson and others see this as a sexist judgement. But no-one denies that a womann needs to spend more on clothes than a man to be a public figure, that a woman needs to maintain a certain public image while a man can slide into a $200 suit…but 150 grand? for eight weeks? it was not that it was extravagant it’s that it was dumb beyond dumb when youre trying to portray yourself as a woman of the people

the seond big charge was that palin was subject to satirical scrutiny beyond others…well this is simply in the nature of the beast…palin is a laughable moron…she’s running for vice president and she cant tell us what she reads, important supreme court judgements, and shes confused about  what the VP does (the VP is in charge of the senate – no, sarah the VP breaks tied votes in the senate) and the first amendment – saying that it ‘protects people from attacks in the media’ (no, sarah, it protects the media and others from being restrained in their attacks) .

Does such a candidate demand ridicule? yes, because she’s ridiculous, and she’s a candidate to control a nuclear arsenal.

Thirdly, there has been a deal more comedy about Palin , simply because she’s a vastly more comic figure -the gap between the claims made about her, and her reality, the degree to which her attributes – moose hunter etc  – have been spruiked by her own allies, is relevant. If Obama is less satarisible it’s because he has kept a more minimal persona, not dlving into any sort of cliched black scenario.

Nevertheless, SNL, Letterman. Leno, the Daily Show et al have done their fair share of Obama cant dance, McCain is old and Biden is foolish gags – but comedy is comedy. Whatever Palin’s gender or politics, she’s simply a character in a way that others arent and thats comedy gold.

Really, this attempt to frame the justifiable scrutiny and satirical pressure as sexism is the worst sort of pseudo feminism, and special pleading – a sort of fauxminism if you will. Palin, her conduct, her ignorance, her self-satisfied incuriosity has given plenty of material without even knowing if shes a chick or not.

Anyone arguing her case on the grounds of sexism is really special pleading, and that is not really contributing to a progressive cause. Palin’s disapproval rating is now 60% – were all thse people sexist

Obama’s aunt

Obama’s auntie….

….is the latest desperate ploy by the GOP. She’s a half-sister of Obama’s father, lives in Boston in public housing, and has been refused asylum – she had applied from Kenya, on political grounds. She’s still in Boston….Obama’s stonewalled questions on the issue, but his team put out reports claiming that Obama had neither contact nor knowledge with the half-aunt. The McCain camp has said it’s a family matter and it’s only the outriders – clingons under the rim like Sean Hannity on FOX News – who have the running with it.

Of course what the truth is, and what Obama can’t say is the truth ‘hot damn – look my dad, whom i met twice in my life, was a root rat – he left kids, wives, etc everywhere. If i kept up a connection with all these folks i wouldnt have time to shit in my million dollar house…

That of course would raise the whole mandingo thang…Obama’s father, the exchange student chancer who used his fashionable blackness to lay girls like stones on the great Ocean Road…and who thus created for Obama an expnaidng pseudo family  that he is suddenlt liable for…….

 

 

Palin’s latest gaffe

She’s the gift that keeps on giving….Palin’s latest foray into commentary in American goverment is her misreading of the first amendment. She said today:

“If [the media] convince enough voters that that is negative campaigning, for me to call Barack Obama out on his associations, then I don’t know what the future of our country would be in terms of First Amendment rights and our ability to ask questions without fear of attacks by the mainstream media.”

Anyone, anyone? yes the first amendment doesnt protect you from anything another citizen does – it only protects you from govt limitations on your free speech. Its a guarantee that people can rip the shit out of you – hence the almost non existent defamation laws in the US.

Palin’s comment was like that of Tito the Builder, the Joe the Plumber sub they called out. ‘I was disgusted with the attacks on Joe the Plumber ‘ Tito said  ‘that was against his first amendment rights’.

Palin and Tito…neither have a clue about what the first amendment means. Neither have a clue about the structure of American government, its base, its history, its essential liberalism.

Both would actually prefer an anti-American, and anti-liberal system, where people, including journalists, could be hounded for their failure to support Americanness or some such, or their attack on traditional values.

Poor things they dont know it. In Titos case it doesnt matter. In Palin’s case SHE COULD BE PRESIDENT OF THE US IN THREE MONTHS TIME….