AFL tipping help

How do you decide which team to tip in any given game?

I am a terrible tipster. It is usually only a few weeks into the season when I realise my chances of winning any tipping competitions are already gone, and this season is no exception.

I make my selections based primarily on which team I think is better. Secondary considerations are home ground advantage, whether the teams are coming off a long road trip, and “gut feel”. I think I have found something that will help improve this formula.

From rounds 2-6 this season, team’s who have had a longer break between games than there opponent have won 17 and lost only 9. Teams with an extra 2 or more days break (3 days extra has happened once) have a won 8 and only lost 1. The single loss was Collingwood on ANZAC day, a game which they appeared to have won, but managed to let slip in the last seconds.

Have any teams surprised you so far this season?

The Saints are performing better than most people expected them to. In their 5 games since round 1, they have twice had an extra 2 day break, and once had a single extra day. They have never had a shorter break than their opponents have.

My Bulldogs were expected to be a contender this season, but have lost their last 3 in a row. In 4 out of 5 games since round 1, the Bulldogs have had a shorter break than their opponent, including in all 3 losses, and twice it has been a 2 day difference.

Melbourne was widely tipped to finish on the bottom this season, and even though Richmond has been going poorly, it was s surprise when Melbourne beat them. The Demons had an extra 2 days break.

How about the Eagles turnaround from round 3 to 4? In round 3 they lost by 97 points to St Kilda, and in round 4 they comfortably beat the previously undefeated Bulldogs. In round 3, the Eagles had a 2 day shorter break than the Saints did, and in round 4, they had a 2 day longer break than the Bulldogs.

In round 7, there is only one game featuring a 2 day difference. The Saints are on the receiving end this time, against Collingwood. Despite everything, I have said above, I will still be tipping the Saints to win.