Common Sense
This is not a world beating team; they have a couple of canny bowlers, two hard to get out openers, KP, an untried number 3, a number 5 who has to play for his career every 5 minutes, a keeper who can’t catch, and an aging all rounder who they win more with when he doesn’t play. This is not a special English side, it’s a handy unit.
Match winners
KP…. And then who? Strauss made two hundreds in a game in India, great effort, but England lost. Broad chips in, but doesn’t take many wickets. Anderson looks like he has finally mastered his bowling, but he still hasn’t taken down a top notch batting lime up. Swann is good, but will he win matches? No one knows if Freddie will play, and more importantly, if he will be any good.
Form
England has lost three of its last four series. Australia has won two of their last four. Seems pretty close until you actually look into the details. England have beaten a homesick Windes, and Australia went to South Africa (the team that less than 12 months ago beat England at home) with a team of new players and won the series. No contest.
Captaincy
Andrew Strauss cost England the series in the West Indies, with not one, but two horrendously late declarations. Ricky might be a poor captain, but he is a poor captain with 4 years of experience behind him, and now has the two best strategic thinkers in state cricket in his team.
English media
This team’s cred is paper thin. One loss, and the media will rip them apart. Strauss has been in the job for less than 6 months, Flower less than that; they have built up no record that can insulate them from the press. KP can top score and still get bagged by the media here.
51
You could say this goes into form, but it doesn’t, it gets its own special chapter. Because the West Indies bowled England out for 51, and that top order, with only one change, will be the same one that faces Australia.
Complacency
Australia don’t have it. In 2005 they turned up with it. That was a transitional team, this is now Ricky’s team. They are younger and hungrier than any team Ricky has captained, and thanks to their win in South Africa, they now have belief.
In the next few days there will be a piece called “Why Australian can Lose”.
Jarrod is the writer of the sexiest new cricket book in town, the year of the balls 2008: a disrespective.
6 Comments
C’m on Jarrod, what was the “On top of the world & unbeatable” Aussie hype in 2005? Whitewash? Winning every test within 3 days? Hopeless Poms? Yeah. Right. McGrath turned his ankle; Symmo was dropped after an overly liquid night, and the Pommie Sneaks had a secret programme they’d managed to keep under wraps. We got done! Right? (Oh & Ponting wasn’t a captain’s box compared to Warnie.)
Or maybe that Our Lads don’t look half so insufferably arrogant and “in y’er face” this time might stand them in good stead. Hope so. Last Summer didn’t actually inspire confidence in Ponting’s leadership once The Famous Four had retired. Nothing worse than staying up most of the night watching us getting done by The Old Enemy.
Not a bad summary. I still reconn it will be a lot closer than you think. England at home are a different proposition to England away.
But England this time doesn’t have the bowlers that they had in 2005. As for the Aussie attack, lets just hope Johnson doesn’t do a hammy otherwise we have a lot of honest toilers and no attacking spinner (remember Warnie ended up with 40 wickets in 2005; means a lot of the other guys weren’t pulling their weight). Australia 2-1
England can’t win because their media called Andrew McDonald, “Ronald McDonald”, aluding to his, for want of a better term, “rangerness”.
Now you never ever want to get a red head angry.
Despite his modest credentials, AMac will plunder 1000 Test runs in this Ashes series and take 86 Test wickets, beating the valiant efforts of two combined Terry Alderman tours.
It has no logical conclusion but it will happen.
AMac for Liberal Party leader!
(Sorry, it’s been a tough day in the Crikey office).
OZ, I’ve tried not to mention 2005 much, because, and the English media hasn’t realised this yet, it was 4 years ago, the Australian team is completely different, and the English bowling attack is completely different. Not sure how much you have seen of Australia playing away, but his captaincy in the summer was 12 times better than it was in India, and in South Africa it got better again. It surprised me more than anyone I promise.
Scott, it will be close, this is just the first half of the argument.
Leigh, I almost submitted an article on ‘ronaldgate’. I don’t get it, his nickname in Australia is Ronald, but suddenly a photoshopped image of him as Ronald caused a stir.
To be fair to the Poms (and the Windies, I guess), that score of 51 was a result of some very good bowling. Taylor bowled a pretty special spell, Benn was tight and getting it to turn and even Darren Powell managed to keep it relatively straight.
That being said, I think you are pretty spot on with your assessments throughout. Strauss and Cook are a solid opening pair, but Cook doesn’t covert enough scores and I think Strauss will struggle against Johnson and Siddle this series. I don’t rate Bopara as a test quality player — certainly not a number three in any event. Pietersen is world class as we all know, but hasn’t actually produced something big for a while.
I’m not sold on the idea that Collingwood is under the pump at the moment. Last summer, sure, but he answered his critics pretty well and will get the whole Ashes series. They’d be mad to drop him when there’s little else to replace him with. Bell? Joyce? Shah? They are either unproven or not good enough.
Flintoff is a class player on his day and still probably has the ability to perform when fit, but he’s not fit enough and they are almost better giving up on him completely. That being said, he’s far and away a better choice than Bresnan who has no place on the international scene. If they pick him they’ll get flogged. Prior is a class batsman, but yeah, worries over his keeping remain. Ideally he’d play as a specialist bat (I reckon he’s good enough), and Foster would take the gloves.
I think you underestimate parts of England’s bowling attack. Anderson has improved out of sight over the past few years and will be a handful for the top order. Swann has also surprised everyone (me included) by how well he’s bowled over the past year and he’s absolutely number one in the pecking order for them now (though Monty will probably play in Cardiff). Who would have thought twelve months ago that Graeme Swann of all people would be the best performed spin bowler from both sides. Again, though, after that it falls off a cliff. Broad doesn’t have any weapons at the moment and the revolving door that is the English third seamer has yet to impress. I’m not sold on Onions at all. They needed Sidebottom fit and in shape and he is neither at the moment.
I think the Aussies will win, but it isn’t going to be as clear cut as you make out. Australia also have questions to answer – can Ponting and Hussey finally find form? Can the Prince prove himself in English conditions against international bowlers? Are McDonald/North/Watson up to the task? Can Lee finally perform against England? Is Hauritz more than the slowest swing bowler in Australia?
Should make for a very interesting series.
Scottie, There is a piece on why England could win, I just haven’t written it yet. Too busy taking the piss out of Shoaib. Paul Collingwood is only ever 2 bad scores from being under the pump, I think he likes it that.