More AFL clubs might change coaches from the start of the ‘09 season to the start of the ‘10 season than we have seen in…well, longer than my memory. Already two changes have been made, and we are only half way through the season.
So, who will be coaching where in 2010? Here are the answers.
Adelaide: Neil Craig. He is one of the coaches over which there seems to be no controversy at all. Adelaide look like they will make the finals yet again, and they have possibly the best group of young players in the AFL. When Craig does leave the Crows, it will probably be as a premiership coach.
Brisbane: Michael Voss. Half way through his first season Voss has the Lions pushing for a top four finish. His lack of experience in coaching has apparently done his team no harm yet. Even if they were to have a bad last 10 rounds, and miss the finals, there is no chance of a coaching change in Brisbane.
Carlton: Brett Ratten. The Blues are on target for the finals for the first time since 2001. They have a group of young players that means optimism for the future is high. No chance of a change here.
Collingwood: Mick Malthouse. He is coming out of contract, and has been at Collingwood for 10 seasons without a premiership, and Nathan Buckley may not be available to coach them if they do not act soon. Those three things mean there is some doubt. I just cannot believe that Collingwood would be so willing to take a risk on an untried coach when the person they already have is probably the best in the competition. He has taken teams to the finals 16 times out of 25 (probably 17/26 at the end of this season). It is 15 out of 20 if you exclude the Footscray years, and looks even better if you consider that Collingwood were the bottom team when he took over.
Essendon: Matthew Knights. The Bombers have performed better than most expected so far this season. I think they will struggle to match that in the second half of the season, but it would take almost 10 straight losses before there was even a hint of Knights being in trouble.
Fremantle: Mark Harvey. Seems to have the support at Freo to avoid the axe, despite winning only three games so far, but he must be on the proverbial thin ice, and it would not surprise at all if he were not there at the start of next season. If I were Freo, I would be putting together every cent I could muster and getting in touch with Malthouse’s agent. As a club that has never managed to perform consistently well, an experienced coach with a proven record of club building would seem the perfect match. Mark Williams would be another solid option. I would check what Sheedy Pagan and Matthews are doing, and Gary Ayers too, as a less expensive alternative. Due to the recent trend to shy away from coaches with experience (nobody has hired a coach with senior coaching experience since late 2004), there is many good experienced coaches available.
Geelong: Mark Thompson. No explanation required.
Hawthorn: Alastair Clarkson. Despite the possibility that they may not even be in the finals the year after a premiership, Clarkson is very safe. Despite sneaking a premiership last year, they are still a work in progress. So despite Jeff Kennett’s protestations, given their run of injuries, there season so far is not very surprising.
North Melbourne: Darren Crocker. Caretaker coaches often end up getting the job permanently. I do not think they will be successful in luring Nathan Buckley. Mark Williams would be another potential option with the high profile the Kangaroos crave. I fear that their unfashionable image will put those people out of reach though.
Melbourne: Dean Bailey. They need time no matter who is the coach, and Bailey seems to be doing a good job of developing the young players. He is cursed with the worst batch of ‘top line’ players in the competition, so there is no chance of anyone getting many wins out of that list.
Port Adelaide: Damien Hardwick. It is almost accepted fact that Mark Williams will not be there next season. Hardwick has a good reputation as an assistant coach and he pad in a premiership at the club. There are plenty of experienced options available, but I think the Power will go for someone ‘fresh’.
Richmond: Wayne Campbell. Has a very good reputation as an assistant coach and a long history with the club. Jade Rawlings can get himself into contention with a good finish to the season as caretaker coach. Other current assistant coaches at Richmond David King and Craig McCrae also have a chance. Chris Bond, who has a lot of experience as an assistant, and experience in running his own team in the VFL, and played 100 games for the club, might also have a chance.
St.Kilda: Ross Lyon. Top four last season, 12-0 so far this season. He is safe.
Sydney: John Longmire. I believe that Paul Roos is contracted for 2010, but with the club about to embark on a rebuilding phase, and a succession plan seemingly already in place, I think Roos will retire from coaching and Longmire will step in for what are likely to be some difficult seasons.
West Coast: John Worsfold. They love him, and as a premiership captain and coach, you can understand why. The Eagles have played some really poor footy in the last couple of seasons though, and Worsfold might not be the best option for getting them back to the end of the ladder that the club is most accustomed to. It would probably be best to give Worsold a 1-year extension and see how things are going then, but he will probably demand 3 years and get it.
Western Bulldogs: Rodney Eade. He is out of contract at the end of the year, but the Dogs will almost certainly stick with him, as it looks like they will finish in the top four for the second consecutive season. The only temptation could be to have a nibble at Matthews or Malthouse, in much the same way that clubs trying to get that last little bit of improvement ‘top up’ on experienced players (e.g. Stewart Dew last year) in the belief that they will be more likely to win a premiership. Clubs are conservative with coaches when their team is near the top of the ladder though, so it would be a huge surprise.
7 Comments
I dont care how long and exhaustive richmonds process will be history tells me that Campbell or Rawlings will get the job. Another good bloke who no one at Richmond will have the heart to sack if things go wrong. Danny Frawley anyone?
A really boring subject Scott. Pagan, Sheedy, Ayres, Matthews? Oh, you omitted Blight.
Now let us see.
Pagan left Carlton in last position (although I do believe tanking was not Pagan’s modus operandi; Carlton lost it’s last 11 games of 2007, Hmmm!). Sheedy left Essendon with the worst playing crop Essendon has seen for a century; Matthews is not interested in coaching, and why should he be; ditto Blight; Ayres has been moved on from all of his senior coaching appointments.
Matter of fact Scott, the last 5 GFs have been won by teams coached by the following (relatively) young coaches; Williams, Roos, Worsfold, Thompson, Clarkson (granted that the master Matthews had won the previous 3 GFs).
The real matter for discussion re AFL is how do we reduce the huge winning margins; how possibly can the AFL supply around another 90 AFL players (rookies lists included) to Surfers and West Sydney teams in the next 2 years. Will the next 2 new coaches of these teams succeed, if so, at whose expense? So do we in fact increase the failed coaches brigade from 8 to 10, seasonally (and nominally) adjusted?
Relegation system, anyone?
A bit tough Francesco. I think the rollercoaster ride that is AFL coaching appointments is always interesting.
However I do agree some of the points that you raise are very interesting.
As a Freo supporter I deplore the notion of relegation.
Thanks for the feedback Francesco, especially the tips for possible areas of discussion.
I think you are a bit harsh on those experienced coaches. Pagan took over a really bad playing list that was facing crippling draft sanctions (his decision to take the job was worse than any he made whilst at the club). The Essendon list that Sheedy left is performing well only a season and a half later, and his record of quickly bringing his club back to the top is far better than anyone else in the modern draft/salary cap era. Ayres has a solid coaching record in the AFL, is doing very well with Port Melbourne in the VFL, and he is still under 50.
The recent trend is towards young coaches, but only 3 of them have won premierships. Matthews as mentioned won 3 earlier this decade, and before him all the premierships dating back to 1991 went to coaches who were either older or who were on their second (or more) senior coaching job. I think a lot of experienced coaching talent is going to waste because of the current youth trend. I can’t think of another sport around the world where experience seems to be valued so lowly. The trend will continue for now though, which is reflected in my predictions.
Ok Scott. I’ll take you up on a few of your points.
You say only 3 young coaches have recently coached premiership sides. However, I supplied a list of 5 young premiership coaches, in fact, of the last 5 premierships.
In 2003 Essendon were fined $85,000 by the AFL for salary cap breach during season 2002, under Sheedy. (I could be really cynical to suggest the salary cap breach may have been in train at Essendon in years prior to 2002, but I will not, as I have no evidence of such breach, although, a great reason for Sheedy being able to lift a young side to great heights, perhaps). I might add that season 2006 in relation to Sheedy & Essendon may make your previous contention re Sheedy’s coaching ability somewhat incongruous. (See ‘tanking’, ’salary cap breach’).
Yes, Pagan did take on a basket case. God knows why he did so! But then, Pagan’s paddock cannot work without a Carey in the team. What say you Scott?
Then again, I suppose a rolling zone can and has beaten the best. Such is life.
Which leads me to the next conundrum.
Which of the following is the better coach, and why?
Ross Lyon
Dean Bailey
Gary Ayres
Terry Wallace
‘As a Freo supporter I deplore the notion of relegation’ – Leigh Josie
Rest easy Leigh. The AFL has a relegation system in place. They (the AFL) call it relocation.
I excluded Williams and Thompson from your list of 5. There is no clear demarcation between young and otherwise obviously, but both were mid 40’s when they won premierships, so i didn’t count them.
Sheedy lifted sides in the 80’s, early 90’s and late 90’s (carrying into the 00’s). Winning a premiership with 3 distinct groups of players, at the same club, is an amazing feat. The last remnants of the zoning system probably gave the bombers more than any cap cheating did, but no other coach i have seen has won premierships with 2 very different groups of players, let alone three, so i think he deserves a lot of credit.
I don’t think Pagan did a good job at Carlton. He doesn’t appear to me to be a very good list manager. His record in every coaching job he had prior to the Carlton job is astonishingly good though.
I wouldn’t be happy for either of them to become coach at my club. Freo and Richmond both seem to have a desperate need to improve some basic things in their footy clubs (it is the only way to explain such continued failure in a league that has so many ‘evening up’ instruments). In a similar way to Barrassi’s stint in Sydney, i think that either could do a good job for a season or two for those clubs.
I think it is difficult to assess coaches. The job they need to do can be very different depending on their playing list.
Ross Lyon has a good quality and mature list at the Saints. He has been very successful at implementing his style of play, and that style is obviously effective. He has had success with mature recruits (eg Ray and Dawson). So far he has done a very good job.
Dean Bailey’s playing list is at the opposite end of the spectrum. He has a lot of young players playing decent footy for their level of experience. So he is doing exactly what i think he needs to do, but really that is the easy part, and the real insight will come when the list starts to mature.
Gary Ayres is a tricky one. I always perceived him as tactically naive. His win loss record was solid though, and he got his clubs to the finals often. Both at the Cats and the Crows he took over mature lists of a decent standard. Neither time did he seem to do a good job of guiding the evolution of the club though. His effort of getting the non-aligned VFL club Port Melbourne to the grand final last year was very impressive.
Terry Wallace took over a strong list at Footscray. He did very well with mature aged recruits, and his off field work was extremely valuable to the club. Both from the point that the Dogs list aged, and in his time at Richmond, it seemed apparent that he had a fundemental lack of attention on the defensive part of the game. He is a bit like a really good secondary teacher that is not much good at teaching basics to primary school kids.
To rank them, i would give them two categories (over simplistic as it may be). One for coaching a mature list, and one for coaching a ‘developing’ list.
Mature
=1st Lyon
=1st Wallace
3rd Ayres
N/A Bailey
Developing
1st Bailey
=2nd Ayres
=2nd Wallace
N/A Lyon
The N/As are because i have never seen them coach that kind of list.
What do you think Francesco?
What do I think Scott? I think the subject is boring and totally speculative. To wit: I can assure all that on the appointment of each of those coaches, respective club CEOs will have rolled out the same old cliched lines:
‘We think the appointment of Genghis is a coup for the club. Genghis’ past experience with young men and football at the highest level will ensure the future success of this football club, at least up to the time we all fail once more, Genghis is sacked, I resign, and the long suffering supporters of this football club elect a new set of tossers. (BTW, we’re hoping to pick up a Carey, Judd, Hird at the Victoria Markets this weekend).