Ahhh. It’s that time of the year – When the men are separated from the boys; the wheat from the chaff; the Masterchefs from the Ready Steady Cooks, and the top eight from the teams that suck or aren’t entitled to accrue any competition points. I don’t think I’ll ever get sick of giving Melbourne crap about cheating. I didn’t think 40-Nil could become any more satisfying.
It is also the time of the year when team rosters are really tested. Clubs that have endured the Origin season unscathed have to worry about fatigue, and everyone has to worry about injuries. Timing has a lot to do with success.
What is also exciting about this time of the year is that the teams have to take risks. The competition points are running out, and there is enough of a bottleneck at the bottom of the eight, and fighting for the top four to make every game count.
You really don’t want to lose two points against a team that won’t even feature come September. This’ll be another cracking round.
Apparently the Penrith Panthers banned their players from using facebook, twitter and the like. I hope they can still access Crikey!
Bulldogs v Rabbitohs – 7:35pm Friday July 30, ANZ Stadium
The Rabbits really impressed me last week. They convincingly beat the Warriors in a high scoring affair, even without the services of Isaac Luke. And the Warriors were riding high after five wins in a row! Little Sandow was brilliant. Although the win was soured as the Bunnies will now have to make the run into the finals without man-mountain Dave Taylor, who busted his collar bone in the contest. The Doggies did not do their jersey justice last weekend. After conceding three tries in less than fifteen minutes against the Eels, the Bulldogs could say goodbye to their season. With six games to go, and three wins off the bottom of the eight, the Bulldogs should book their end of season holiday. So much promise, so little execution. They’ll have plenty of sorrows to drown. While the Doggies have nothing to lose, they also have nothing to gain this weekend. The Rabbitohs on the other hand are on equal points with ninth and tenth on the ladder and will be looking to build some momentum. The loss of Taylor will hurt, but Sam Burgess will go even harder, and Luke’s return will boost South Sydney’s attack. The Rabbits won by 22 in round 4 when these two teams last faced. I have no doubt that the Bunnies will get on top of this one.
Rabbitohs by 16.
Panthers v Cowboys – 7:35pm Friday July 30, CUA Stadium
There is nothing like a game against the Cowboys to get your season back on track. The Panthers have lost the last three games in a row, and after sitting on a level pegging with the Dragons, have slipped to two wins off the pace. Time to get back on the winners dais. Yes, the Cowboys won last week, and funnily enough, they actually played some alright footy, but they also conceded twenty four points against a Knights outfit who are also soul searching at the wrong end of the ladder. Defence just hasn’t been a Cowboys strong point. The Panthers have secured Jennings for another five years at the club which should give the boys some confidence, but it could also mean that Jennings rests on his laurels. A rugby league player should always feel like his position is under threat. You gotta keep dangling the carrot. That aside, Jennings can be brilliant, and I hope he turns it up during the run to the finals. The Panthers actually lost to the Cowboys in round 2 this season, but the Cowboys have only won four out of sixteen starts since then. The Panthers will repay their fans for their last two humiliating losses at home.
Panthers by 20.
Eels v Roosters – 5:30pm Saturday July 31, Parramatta Stadium
It’s upsetting when the tri-colours start to look like premiership contenders. Even without Pearce, and with a dodgy call from the video ref, they knocked off the Broncos in Brisbane. Carney has been a revelation, and I reckon he was going cheap. Brian Smith can stand proud. Pretty impressive turn-around for the 2009 wooden spooners. They only won five games last season, and they’ve already got eleven in 2010! I have been resisting the temptation to jump on board the Hayne transport of some variety, and I’m going to resist again this week. The Eels spectacularly thumped the Doggies last week, but again it was sparked by some Hayne brilliance and an absolutely frenetic opening 15 minutes. I can’t believe Hayne can do it two seasons in a row. If he does, I will join his legion of fans in worship. The Roosters are a whole team who have put in a whole season, I want to see them get their just deserts, rather victory going to a flash in the pan. The Roosters beat the Eels the last time they faced early in 2009, and the last time they played at Parramatta Stadium in 2008. But plenty has changed since then. In my mind it is a question of whether Hayne the playmaker shows up. If he does, it’ll be close, if he doesn’t, Carney and Co. will have a field day. Hayne’s try saving tackle last week was unbelievable. The bookies are on the train, and they reckon the Eels will win at home, but I don’t believe it.
Roosters by 8.
Tigers v Sharks – 7:30pm Saturday July 31, Leichhardt Oval
If it were possible for tigers to fight sharks in the wild, I reckon it would be a pretty close affair. Kinda like the old Nadal v Federer matches on half clay, half grass courts, you’d have to do it in knee deep water, but it would be a pretty even match. Too bad this game isn’t about their mascots. The Sharks suck. Their CEO lacks faith in Barrett, and they are suffering though another year without any hope of a premiership. The Tigers were dusted up last week by Manly, and missed out on their chance to slot into outright second on the ladder, but they have one of the more potent teams in the comp, and are a real chance (unless they meet Manly in the finals). As Keating would have said, it was the loss they had to have. They had been winning, but winning ugly. For the Balmain fans at Leichhardt Oval, I reckon this will be the weekend where they start winning pretty again. Benji is always menacing, and Heighington has been fantastic. Wade is back in the team, and his presence in defence together with his kick returns will definitely add value to the Tigers’ backline. The Tigers won by 46 points the last time these two teams faced, and I reckon it could be something like that again. The Sharks have no hope at the Tigers’ spiritual home.
Tigers by 22.
Warriors v Titans –4:00pm (AEST) Sunday August 1, Mt Smart Stadium
The Titans are coming of an ugly but important win against the Dragons last week. It took a cheeky little drop goal from Rogers to seal it in extra time, and make the Dragons none from four in golden point games. When the going gets tough, the Dragons go to shit. It was a good win for the Titans, but I’m not convinced they have turned the corner. The Warriors are a much more impressive side. They are big, fast and frightening. Playing at home, the Warriors have a pretty good record, and although both teams are on 24 competition points, the Titans look like they have left their best footy far behind them. Without Bird in the side, they are a much less threatening team. The Titans have actually won the last four in a row against the Warriors, and I reckon there is enough motivation in breaking that record to get the New Zealander’s over the line. On a side note – I just broke a spring in my couch. Damn. Ease up on the pies Anthony. The Warriors remain my dark horse for the premiership, they can beat anyone in the comp, and they have the Beast. Although they will need to teach their youngsters a lesson or two. Rugby League Lesson No. 1: If you get over the try line, put the bloody ball down!
Warriors by 10.
Storm v Raiders – 2:00pm Sunday August 1, AAMI Park
So I was softly needling Phatass, my mate who is a long suffering Raiders fan, about the fact that he had better start thinking about next season. His response astounded me: “If we beat Melbourne this weekend, we’ll be a chance. Big confidence team so will ride that home.” Huh. I guess he’s mathematically correct. But I’m not giving them a chance, no matter how much I enjoy seeing the Green Machine deep into September. The Storm will be trying to get their first back to back wins since Round 12, but I use “try” without much conviction. Who knows what Melbourne team will show up? The one that gives two hoots, or the one that has seen them lose five out of the last seven? At AAMI Park, you’d have to think they would at least want to impress their fans. Even without competition points on offer, an extra million dollars on the field should help them win, even by accident. If the Raiders play with the belief that they can have a tilt at the title, then that sort of passion will be hard for the Storm to match, but mustering up that sort of game, at this stage in the season is not an easy task. The Storm will win, but they’ll be off their game. The Raiders will put up a bit of fight and make Melbourne draw on at least half a mil of their extra talent. The Storm won in round 10, but only by eleven points…
Storm by 8.
Broncos v Dragons – 3:00pm Sunday August 1, Suncorp Stadium
Hmmm. Conventional gambling wisdom says the Broncos at home gives them at least a ten point start. That same wisdom also says that the Dragons can’t handle the heat of big games. But this game has a few other elements that can’t be ignored. Wayne Bennett is back at Suncorp, and he’ll be looking to make it two from two in 2010. The Broncos played pretty well on Monday Night and showed that they are able to score a lot of points, but they still choked against the Roosters, and have only won four of their home games this season. The Dragons have been one of the least impressive competition leaders that I can think of. They have lost five games this season, and have lacked that killer instinct. To be top of the ladder, and seventh in the comp in points scored would have to be a worry for Wayne. It’s a good thing their defence is heads and shoulders above the competition. The Chin Gasnier has been improving, and another week with Matt Cooper in the centres will hold him in good stead. The Dragons lost the last time these two played up at Suncorp in the semi-final last year, so they’ll want to avenge that loss. Prior to that game, the Dragons won the previous five games against the Broncos at Suncorp, so the Saints travel north well. It’s time for the Dragons to stake their claim and convince the non-believers (like myself) that they could win this thing.
Dragons by 6.
Knights v Sea Eagles – 7:00pm Monday August 2, Energy Australia Stadium
MAAAAAAAANNNNNLLLYYY!!!!! I’ll be the first to admit that the Tigers were a bit off their game last weekend, but some of the tries Manly scored were incredible. The try to Glen Stewart late in the second half must have passed through at least a thousand sets of hands before the long ball wide. Lyon is having an awesome season, and last weekend was no exception as he piled on 22 points. Matai is an asset and a liability at the same time. I reckon that’s pretty good value. The Knights were back to their hapless days, but they almost stole the points up at Townsville. While I’ve been impressed by the Knights backline with Uate, Vuna and Sau, they actually have a fairly decent forward pack that can muscle up and make it tough for the opposition. Too bad Manly have some big boys too. Whatever you can do we can do better. Manly have won the last two against the Knights by 24 points each, but they have only won one out of the last eight games up at Energy Australia. I think that statistic needs to change and Manly will have a pretty good opportunity to do that this weekend. While the Knights have very slim hopes of making the finals, Manly will be too god.
Sea Eagles by 14.
Progress Score Round 20 – 85/144 59.0% (Last Week 5/8)
Multi-Magic … My long shot bets for the punter within…
- Bulldogs v Rabbitohs – Rabbitohs 13+
- Panthers v Cowboys – Panthers 13+
- Eels v Roosters – Roosters 1-12
- Tigers v Sharks – Tigers 13+
- Warriors v Titans –Warriors -4.5
- Storm v Raiders – Storm to win
- Broncos v Dragons – Dragons 1-12
- Knights v Sea Eagles – Manly -6.5
