The Australian Electoral Commission has formally determined that there will be one extra House of Reps seat in Queensland at the next federal election, and one fewer in New South Wales. This was widely expected and will probably have little impact on the overall outcome of the next federal election, but it will leave quite a few nervous MPs from those states until the new boundaries are decided in about nine months time. It is an occupational hazard for House of Representatives to have the boundaries of their seat change from under them, especially in Queensland, which gains an extra seat more often not when the calculations are made, one year after a the Parliament first sits following each election.
Even though boundary re-alignments are mostly of only interest to psephologists, one party whose life might be made that little bit more difficult is the Nationals. Reducing NSW seats by one will thin out the National’s heartland that little bit more. The extra seat in Queensland is unlikely to make things much easier. However, the much mooted prospect of Qld National’s Senator (technically now a Liberal National Party Senator) Barnaby Joyce making a run for a lower house seat could well be influenced by this redistribution.
To his credit, Joyce has made statements saying that if he did resign from the Senate to contest a House of Reps seat, he should try to win a seat back off Labor, rather than just go into a safe seat which the Nationals already hold. There are probably only two potential seats in Queensland – Dawson, which is based around Mackay, and Flynn, which is based around Gladstone on the coast but then extends back inland all the way past Longreach and up to Winton. Dawson was a previously safe National seat which they lost to Labor last time, and Flynn was the new extra seat Qld got for the 2007 election (and thus had no sitting member). Labor won this by a very small margin.
Flynn looks likely to be the best choice for Barnaby at the moment, but boundary changes might change that scenario. It might even bring the NSW seat of New England into consideration for him. This is an old Nationals’ seat which is now held very comfortably by Independent Tony Windsor (a former National). It covers the area where Barnaby Joyce originally came from. Windsor would be extremely hard to defeat, but that might change if the redistribution substantially alters the boundaries – as happened to the seat the former House of Reps member Peter Andren as a result of this same redistribution process prior to the 2007 election.
The formal commencement of the process to redraw the electoral boundaries in these states also mean that it is now almost a certainty that there won’t be a federal election called this year, unless there are very compelling reasons – and a double dissolution trigger – because otherwise there would have to be a Senate only election held a year or so later. There is no trigger as yet. Holding an election before boundaries are finalised would be quite messy.
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I don’t think New England is very plausible. Apparently even Barnaby Joyce’s parents vote for Tony Windsor (don’t remember where I read that). It would be a lot of fun to cover, but it’s not very smart for Joyce to challenge one of the most popular local members in the country.
On the other hand, he could probably knock off James Bidgood, but the demography of that area is running against the Nationals and will remain a marginal seat as a thorn in Joyce’s side for the rest of his career. Same with Flynn.
I think Possum suggested that the best option remains knocking off Bruce Scott in Maranoa, even if it’s a bit bloody.
certainly if he could somehow get pre-selection for Maranoa, it would be far the easiest to win. But it would just main retaining a safe seat rather than using his public support to (re)gain a seat from Labor.
I can’t see challenging Tony Windsor having much chance of succeeding unless there is a major boundary change.
“To his credit, Joyce has made statements saying that if he did resign from the Senate to contest a House of Reps seat, he should try to win a seat back off Labor”
Wonder if Joyce would be saying this if there was no Dawson?
Bidgood is a oncer and everyone knows it.
On current boundaries, I think Flynn would suit him better, although the quality of the incumbent is certainly a factor. But Flynn’s boundaries could change a fair bit – I imagine Dawson is not likely to be too different after the redistrution, other than perhaps a bit smaller and more concentrated around Mackay, given some of the population growth in that region.
And it’s a bit further north than Flynn, so he’ll look more like a sountherner if he tried re-locating to Mackay all the way from St George, compared to some of the areas Flynn covers.