One mantra of both major parties (and plenty in the mainstream media) that I’ve always hated is the claim that a hung parliament or a minority government is “the worst outcome” possible. It’s about as bad as the mantra that “a vote for a minor party or an independent is a wasted vote”, which under our preferential voting system is simply nonsense.
With the opinion polls leading into today’s Queensland election looking very tight, and the near certainty there will be at least 2 and plausibly as many as 5 MPs elected as Independents* or Greens, the possibly of a hung Parliament – whether neither major party wins the 45 seats needed to form government in their own right – looks like a genuine possibility.
This has led to both Anna Bligh and Lawrence Springborg both urging voters to give them a clear majority. Mr Springborg went so far as to say “he was only interested in majority government” and said “I am not doing any deals at any time.” You can bet he’ll be reversing that comment quick smart if it does end up that being a minority government is the only way he can become Premier !
It’s no surprised that political parties prefer to have absolute power if they can, but that’s hardly a good enough reason to suggest it’s a bad thing if they don’t get it.
When the election was announced four weeks ago, I had a stab in the dark prediction that Labor would lose around 9 seats. But for me, the ideal result would be for them to win 44 or 43 seats, and have to rely on the support of 1 or 2 cross-bench MPs to hold on to government. (I notice John Quiggin is hoping for the same). If Independent Peter Wellington retains his seat of Nicklin, (which is as close to a certainty as you can get in politics) and Ronan Lee gets returned as a Green in Indooroopilly (which is a hard ask, but not impossible), then there would be a real chance to get a Labor government without the stupid, expensive and destructive Traveston Dam and hopefully with some extra accountability measures and sensible measures to do something more effective about climate change (scrapping the 8 cents a litre petrol subsidy, at least in south-east Queensland, springs to mind).
Whilst a majority Labor would probably proceed with the destructive Traveston project, a majority LNP government would probably unwind land clearing controls, conservation zones in Moreton Bay, the already inadequate controls on water extraction from the top of the Murray-Darling Basin, controls on chemical run off into the Great Barrier Reef, prohibitions on uranium mining and bans on shooting ducks and endangered flying foxes – just to name a few. I’m not sure cross-benchers could negotiate for them to drop all of these in return for being given government (or would even be interested in doing so in the case of one or two of them), but good luck to them if they can.
The idea that a government who doesn’t command a majority in the Parliament is somehow unstable or “unable to make the tough decisions” is not borne out by Australian experience. Governments can sometimes find it easier to make tough decisions if they can share some of the blame on some cross-bench MPs. And they are far less likely to make the sort of decisions that are distorted by the arrogance and ideological overreach that can come with absolute control of the Parliament.
Most states have had minority government at one stage or another in the past 20 years. WA and the ACT both have it at the moment, with no great problems. Queensland had it in 1996 and again in 1998 (ended by a Labor by-election win, not by any parliamentary upheaval) without any major dramas. NSW had it early in the Carr era, and I doubt many people would argue the ‘certainty’ or ‘stability’ of the Labor government there now is producing a better result.
SA had it at the start of the Rann era and I’m not aware that it produced a worse government than the one now governing with a majority, even though Mike Rann at the time had to rely in part on the rather idiosyncratic Peter Lewis to retain office.
About the best case for the ‘unstable government’ argument would come from Tasmania, where the efforts of both Labor and the Libs at governing in minority with Green support fell apart before they had run their full terms. But even in those cases, the worst that happened when the agreements fell apart was an early election – which I’d suggest is not as bad as what Tasmanians have had to wear in the last few years with a ‘stable’ government.
By the time most people read this, the result will probably be known – although if there is a hung parliament scenario, it quite possibly won’t be finalised until every vote in the inevitable small number of very close seats is finally counted.
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*Former LNP MP Stuart Copeland is running as an Independent in the new seat of Condamine against the endorsed LNP candidate, Ray Hopper. I’ve tipped Copeland to win this seat on Labor preferences, but I’m not considering him as an Independent in a hung Parliament scenario, as there is no way he would support a Labor government ahead of an LNP one.
