Initial comments on the Qld election

There is still over a week to go before all the votes from the Queensland election are counted, so final percentages and results in a few seats may end being a bit different from how they stand at the moment.  But there are plenty of assessments that can be already made.

A few comments, in no particular order:

• The polls were not far off:

Despite all the surprise at how easy the win for Labor ended up being, the opinion polls actually were not as off the mark as many people have assumed.  On the morning of the election, Newspoll was reported showing ALP at 41.7 per cent of the primary vote, compared to LNP 42.1.  As of Sunday night, the Election Commission of Queensland’s site showed ALP on 42.5 and LNP on 41.3 – both within a percentage point of the poll, with the possibility they could get even closer once all postal and absent votes are counted.

Even on two party preferred figures, AAP  reported the election night count showing ALP on 51.3 to LNP 48.7. Hardly wildly off the 50-50 split reported that morning.  If anything, the result shows that state wide vote totals – especially a two party preferred tally – will seriously obscure major local variations in swings, especially with Optional Preferential Voting and some high polling independent candidates.

• Entrenched independents remain strong, but not much joy for minor parties

Queensland’s four Independents were all easily returned, despite suggestions that two of them might struggle. While no other Independents got into the winner’s circle, there were some other strong performances. Former LNP MP Stuart Copeland gained 26% in Condamine, Keith Douglas over 25% in Mount Isa and Pauline Hanson did better than I expected to get over 21%.  Seven others got into double figures, including a couple of former One Nation MPs.

But unlike some Independents, the minor parties didn’t have a lot of joy. The sole remaining One Nation MP, Rosa Lee Long, did creditably to get over 33% after having her seat heavily affected by a redistribution, but will still fall short.

Former Labor turned Greens MP, Ronan Lee also managed to get around a 10% swing for his new party in Indooroopilly, polling over 26%. He will probably come in second ahead of Labor, but is unlikely to get enough preferences from his former party to catch up to the LNP candidate.

The Greens as a whole should be a bit disappointed with their overall results. Their overall percentage of the vote barely went up from last election, even though they stood in all 89 electorates for the first time ever. They did well to increase their vote in Mt Coot-tha to 23%, but went backwards in some other Brisbane based seats.  To tread water when there was such apathy towards the major parties, even with the presence of an MP, should be disappointing for them.  They could probably argue that the expectation of a tight result pushed some potential voters back to the major parties, but ‘if onlys’ don’t count for much.

However, it was worse news for Family First.  Despite standing in almost exactly the same number of seats, their overall percentage of the vote more than halved from 1.89 to 0.81. One percentage might not sound much, but that was with candidates in only 25 of the 89 seats. It masks the fact that all the good results they managed in individual electorates in 2006 pretty much disappeared.  Their best result this time was a bit under 5% in Pine Rivers, contrasting with 2006 where they scored above 5% in 20 seats, including one with 14% and another with 11%.

The Daylight Saving for South East Queensland party doesn’t seem to have significantly affected the result in any seat.  They fielded 32 candidates, and managed to get over 4% in four of them, with a top of 6.5% in Mermaid Beach.

• The LNP merger worked OK

Because the opinion polls showed the LNP ahead all the way through the campaign, expectations were raised so high that falling so far short felt like a major failure. While they were coming off a low base, and should be disappointed not to have made more gains in South East Queensland or the north, their campaign was certainly a clear improvement on almost all their others since at least 1995 – although that might be saying a lot, given how poor some of them were.

The result seems to have confirmed that urban voters are not likely to be persuaded in large numbers by an LNP leader with the traditional National Party heritage. But the merger has set up the framework for future gains. I was surprised they managed to make it work as smoothly as they did. Although success is ultimately measured in numbers of seats, a result of 49 % to 51 % does give grounds for future optimism.  There are still some challenges ahead keeping the merged entity functional and coherent, especially given some of the dynamics amongst the Coalition in Canberra, but if they can transition smoothly to a new leader, I think they can make this thing work for them.

• The ALP result is a genuinely good one

Regardless of uncertainty generated by the way the polling was interpreted, and views about whether a late swing back to Labor saved their bacon, there were still some very results for Labor which surprised pretty much everyone.  To easily hang on to Whitsundays and to come close to winning Mirani off an LNP incumbent is a huge result. To lose none of the northern and far northern seats, and just one of the Brisbane seats (or two if you count Indooroopilly), and also to still be lineball in the bayside seats of Redlands and Cleveland in the light of the controversy amongst the fishing communities over strengthening protected areas in Moreton Bay is a good achievement.  Continuing to hang on to some of the Gold Coast seats is also laudable.  I’m especially surprised that they are in with a chance of retaining Gaven, given the small margin and some of the poor publicity the local member had received.

However, despite the good win, things can turn sour fairly quickly. Morris Iemma won an unexpectedly strong victory at the most recent NSW election in 2007 (in part due to a poor campaign by the Opposition), but things fell apart very quickly after the election. Anna Bligh will have significantly increased authority after this election, especially as it will be seen as a come from behind win. She will need to guard against some of the hubris that can easily occur if long-term incumbents have solid electoral wins.

ELSEWHERE:

• Plenty of stories at Pineapple Party Time;
• The Tally Room details their perspective on the winners and losers;
• Derek Barry at Woolly Days