The Liberal Party is remarkably inept at dealing with its leadership problems, which is peculiar given just how much they depend on their leader to keep them unified. All parties realise from time to time they have to replace a leader. Labor usually has plenty of hardheads who can oversee the process of spilling and then replacing a leader with the minimum of bloodshed.
But the Liberals have never mastered the art. They could never resolve the Peacock-Howard tension in the 1980s, instead letting it confine them to opposition for two or three terms. Peter Costello complained about it – admittedly from a self-interested point of view – in his memoir, saying the Party simply couldn’t manage the basic act of generational renewal that Labor routinely achieved. We saw how badly they handled the end of John Howard, whose political skills had plainly deserted him, along with much of the electorate, in 2007. So incompetent was the party that even when John Howard offered his own head on a platter they refused to accept it.
So, given that, why on earth would Malcolm Turnbull resign? He knows what Howard knew, that the Liberals struggle to kill even bad leaders. They wait for them to quit, or do a deal. They hope that they’ll see the writing on the wall, like Alexander Downer did, and negotiate an honourable exit. Or they hope they’ll roll the dice and lose, like Brenden Nelson did.
Turnbull instead is doing what any politician with a killer instinct does: he is calling the bluff of his enemies and giving them no alternative but to fight. He has already outsmarted them once this week, bringing on the leadership spill on Wednesday, 20 hours ahead of the intended meeting. He’ll be trying to work out a way to do it again.
Fighting comes naturally to Malcolm Turnbull. He enjoys it. He’s been doing it for most of his life. The higher the stakes, the better. His enemies – the likes of Tony Abbott and Nick Minchin – may talk tough. Tony Abbott likes to swagger around with a prize-fighter’s shoulder roll, looking like he’d take on all comers. But conflict is foreign to them. They’re on Turnbull’s ground now. They appear to have expected Turnbull to roll over at the first serious blow, to have seen Abbott and Minchin threatening to walk and either caved in on the ETS or resigned. Instead, he counter-attacked. The reason why Tony Abbott gave such a terrible press conference on Thursday afternoon when he announced his resignation may well have been because he never expected to have to do what he did.
Indeed, the reaction of his opponents has been one of confusion. They talked of tickets, they suggested Turnbull was going mad, they tried to keep up a steady trickle of resignations, they even spread the rumour that Julie Bishop had told him his number was up. Nothing doing, was Turnbull’s response. You’ll have to kill me in the partyroom.
Efforts to get him to do the right thing “by the party” will be to no avail. John Howard, a man who gave his life to the Liberal Party, was quite happy to tear it apart in his quest for the Prime Ministership. Malcolm Turnbull, who toyed with joining Labor and has virtually none of Howard’s devotion to the Liberal cause, is unlikely to be any different. In any event, the party is already tearing itself apart even without him.
As of tonight, the odds favour a Hockey succession. But Turnbull is accustomed to fighting against the odds. If any of the climate denialists and conservatives in the Liberal Party thought he was going to simply roll over, they have wholly misunderstood the man who leads them.
46 Comments
How would Hockey be better? Do they conservatives think he’d be a moderate but easier to bully? I still can’t see Hockey standing against Turnbull, and I also can’t see Turnbull stepping down. That leaves Turnbull v Abbot, and that is a win/win situation. If Turnbull wins the Liberals will have taken a step closer to modernity and if Abbot wins they will be wiped out at the next election, or at least receive such a shalaking that they just might realise their mistake.
It’s not just his Lib opponents who’ve underestimated his resolve. Everyone has: press, public, even his own allies in the party room. He’s completely disregarding the script. It’s been quite amusing seeing shell-shocked journos rubbing their eyes in disbelief.
Turnbull’s daring, bravado, and talent make him like a political David Campese: capable of breathtaking brilliance, but also prone to throwing a loose pass in his own in-goal area. When it’s rugby, you can afford to make mistakes like that. But if you’re at the helm of the opposition, or God forbid, the government…?
Loose cannon.
Hockey would be very foolish to step up now and be smashed in the next election, better to let Abbott continue his game plan and step in after the election, if he still has a seat seeing he has such a small margin to play with whereas Abbott will be in the clear regardless of the election outcome.
Yeh… when the petty Bourg… get over peeing their collective panties at the thought that they might have to ’share the loave and fishes’…they might see the intelligence in the fact that the ‘liberals are an 18th cetury cast’ …get over them..and opt for the 21 century… Ruddy… call the big one for the peoples year’s end…give the crap the doubler… give us a real christmas gift… a chance to boot the scum of the dung heap…show us you’ve got more balls than the mico pills..menzies/whitlam/mc./frazer
hawk/… Take a leaf from ‘the keat’… go for the ‘throat’… and don’t listen to the ’sprout and tofu set’… they’le fiddle with their ’small bits’ while the the third rock from the sun heads towards a Mars look-alike….Go for the erection Ruddy… go for it…make our day… and our tomorow…. good luck Champ… we are with you….!
I think Turnbull will win the leadership ballot. All talk otherwise is just the squawking of sore losers in the Liberal denialist camp.
He should’ve joined the ALP. The Liberals are clearly incapable of moving forward until the dead wood inflexible conservatives are cleared out of the party.
Hockey would be mad to stand now, even excluding his family circumstances. It would be the Right that put him in, and he’d be their puppet/fig leaf. The party would continue to go to the Right, get hammered in the next election and hey presto Hockey would get the blame for it presumably for being too small-l, not the Right. Career over.
I can’t see Turnbull stepping down. I hope Hockey won’t stand, and it will be Turnbull vs Abbott on Tuesday. Let’s see if they dare put the Mad Monk in. Frankly it might be the best thing for the party as well in the long term – let the Right have their way, get annihilated at the next election, and then realise that their way leads nowhere.
Turnbull’s meeting with David Cameron affected him more than just on climate change – it was a warning about what happened to the Tories until Cameron dragged them back to the centre.
If Hockey takes the leadership he can’t reunite the party and have a meaningful climate change policy. I can’t believe that Joe will sell out his principles for a poisoned chalice. Well maybe I can. Better to wait until after the election defeat to pursue his ambition.
I said it yesterday and it still looks good today. Turnbull will force them to choose: “Me or the Monk”, and as a few have already noted, Hockey would sign his own suicide note if he put his hand up at Michin’s request.
Interesting Galaxy poll I heard on radio this morning with 56% wanting something done about climate change.
If the troglodytes think the GFC pushed AGW off the agenda of the punters completely they are complete fools. They go in that direction as dinosaurs; they’ll meet the same fate.
Culpeper:
I have absolutely no idea what you’re talking about. And I question whether you do either.
Turnbull would and should win on Tuesday. How sad that the Liberal rebels do not see that they are pawns in a massive Global Climate Coalition -orchestrated ploy. This was so clear, listening to Andrew Bolt with Mark Colvin on PM on Friday night. The script for this confrontation was broadly designed long ago, by experts in public opinion manipulation, whose services were bought starting in the 1990s by corporations out to protect their carbon assets. They know that a win for them in Australia would help bolster their political cause in the far more important US Senate ETS debate early next year. So they are throwing everything they have got at this: hence the massive email campaign to Liberal MPs. This is being prompted by the organised denialist camp, which sees this as the make-or-break moment for massive email action. See, for example
http://joannenova.com.au/2009/11/this-is-line-ball-australia-stands-on-the-edge-of-the-trading-abyss/
This is American-style right-wing mass mobilisation politics, and it is ugly. Are the Liberal rebel MPs really so naive?
For anyone who does not understand this essential background, read pages 352-366 of Al Gore’s follow-up book, “Our Choice: a plan to solve the climate crisis”. The stiry of the GCC’s role in fostering denialism is all there.
The problem for the libs is that, being so leader centric, they are really reliant on finding someone like Howard – articulate enough, rat smart, yet mediocre and average enough to appeal to the conservative troglodyte element in the community.
The litmus test for lib leadership would be this: someone capable of pulling off what Howard did with Pauline Hanson – that is credibly taking up her policies (thus pleasing the rednecks) while at the same time framing it in techno-bureacratic language – of the kind that passiffies the more educated and slightly more progressive elements in the community.
Turnbull cant do this – he can do the later but not the former. Nor can Hockey. Possibly the mad monk can, and thats why I wouldn’t discount him. When he lays into the refugees or talks about dole bludgers he sounds like he actually believes it. Thats what the punters want and thats what they got with Howard.
The possiblity of a lib surge back to the dumb deaf and blind populist Howard era is a real possibility. The progressives or moderates where all purged by Howard and there’s a lot of nasty political opportunists in the party who’s politics extends not much further than an interest in preserving the interests of the big end of town . There’s a whole lot of them that yearn for the days of the wedge, of pandering to the lowest common denominator, of the politics of innuendo and dog whistle. Ultimately if youre about defending big business and vested interests at any costs, then, short of actually stating it, which you can’t, you’ll be drawn to the nasty populist politics pioneered by the republicans in the US and exported here by little johnny (to popular acclaim).
My one qualification on predicting this Howardesque turn in the libs is that climate change is only going to become more extreme and more accepted by the mainstream. The Minchins and Joyce’s of the Coalition are like dinosaurs in the last days before the comet hit. I think the consensus will change to such an extent that the next generation will even see Rudd’s behaviour as bordering on criminal. History is not going to be kind.
Certainly Malcolm Turnbull is not following the standard script for ‘mortally wounded’ leaders. With such self-confidence he has been able so far to withstand every tricky onslaught from the old hands in the Liberal Party . If he wins against this undermining effort he will re-write the text books on destabilizing and then destroying leaders.
It’s a tricky one for Hockey. If he does put himself forward that’ll pretty well wipe his chances of ever being prime-minister. Particularly with Abbot sitting around undermining him. Hockey’s young. It would be in his best interests to give party leadership to someone else. However, if Abbot gets it there’s a good chance there won’t be a party in a few elections time, or that they’ll be out of government for a generation. Also, if Hockey tells the party to go jump, when he puts his hand up after the next election there may well be resentment – ‘where were you when we needed someone to stop the catastrophe that Abbot has brought down on us?’ If the latest Newspoll can be believed the only Coalition survivors of the next election if a denialist Abbot takes charge will be those in very safe seats. Hockey’s own seat might be lost if Abbot becomes leader…
So a tricky one. Hockey’s best bet is to campaign like hell to keep Turnbull as leader, let Turnbull carry the can for the next election and then go for the leadership.
On balance I reckon that Hockey will find a way to avoid the leadership. I suspect the Libs will come to their senses. An election fought on climate change will be a massacre. The best thing for their future is to pass the CPRS, get climate change off the front page so that they can campaign on things where they have a natural strength, such as border protection.
Remember a few weeks ago Hockey said that he had never lied in politics. Well – that statement could come back to haunt him if he drops his support for the ETS in exchange for the leadership.
Monday and Tuesday will be decisive. If the ETS is passed Monday, it will be a win for Turnbull (more a win for Rudd, but you know) and he is counting on the newspoll release on Tuesday to show a boost to his satisfaction ratings, which may help him to scrape over the line in any leadership ballot.
Tunebull is a Business man and Technocrat, not a politician. I suspect he’d sell us all out to Goldman Sachs in an instant.
Got to love all those catch phrases, like MT’s hero Maggie Thatchers ‘Risk Management’ and Ruperts ‘Benefit of the doubt’.
Big Risk, bad management (for some, like the little man) . Isn’t that what brought on the financial crisis?. But thats ok, Bank says no? We’ll bail you out….
The major person to blame is everyone’s hero, Kevin Rudd.
He would not get his hands dirty by going out to the talk-back radio stations to put the message across about the ETS. As a result nobody understands the ETS, what it is about, why it is necessary, and why ETS superior to a carbon tax.
Furthermore, the entire population is not convinced of its necessity. When I mention sea level rise I get nil response. It was clear that people do not believe me.
Do not invest in coastal real estate, people! What is now the prediction? Over the top of Circular Quay in the next 20 years?
Finally people say that since Australia is small, why bother? Again Kevin Rudd did not convince the population about this necessity.
Kevin is a sanctimonious creep who does not get his hands dirty. Penny Wong has as much personality as a piece of wet blotting paper.
Howard with the GST went out and stumped the country. There was not a talk back radio he did not take his message, not once, but several times. “Tax? I will hand it back to the States.”
What is Kevin going to do with these billions? No one knows. A tax cut elsewhere?
The whole thing has been massively mismanaged by this sanctimoniousness incompetent, and it has now blown up in his face.
If Hockey ascends to the Liberal leadership as a result of the carbon lobby’s political assassination of Malcolm Turnbull, he will never feel secure in the job – knowing that they can do it again whenever and to whomever they decide to target. This is only one of many good reasons why Hockey should – and I believe, will – stand by his leader on Tuesday.
To (in a garbled manner) quote the great Karl M: “The Liberal Party: first as tragedy, then as farce.”
Bob
Has anyone mentioned that the Galaxy poll in the Courier Mail had the Federal ALP on a two party preferred of 54/46 in Qld – sample size 800. That would give the ALP 22 of the 29 Qld seats.
Qld is supposed to be the anti-ETS bastion for the Coalition
I an starting to think that Turnbull is not a “denialist” about his continued leadership. He is busy today trying to make it impossible for Hockey to stand against him. If his only opponent is Abbott then it is possible that enough Liberals will take fright at the thought of becoming a right-wing rump, fighting the Nationals for scraps, and retain him, somewhat reluctantly.
While there is a lot of talk about his poor management of the party the public doesn’t see much of that but they do see him standing up forcefully against an attempted coup. If he comes out on top his public standing may be significantly increased however the Liberal Party’s standing will have been grievously wounded irrespective of who comes out on top.
On a personal level my estimation of Turnbull has risen considerably. However, not enough to vote for him!
And if you are looking for a laugh read in today’s SMH about Miranda Devine’s crush on the new golden boy of conservative politics Cory Bernardi. Cory Bernardi!!
If Hockey goes with the LIB anti ETS mob, to get the leadership, he would have to do a 180 on his Tunbull deal, ie renig on the negotiated changes with Turnbull and the ALP to allow the ETS legislation through parliament
Surely that would shoot his cred to bits, even for a Pollie
And Rudd won’t call a DD. C Change has grown too big.
The Greens would cause far too much damage.
DS, I nearly choked laughing at Miranda’s homage for that cream puff!
And to say that it’s Malcolm Turnbull ‘burning the building’ on his way out is so arse-about you have to wonder if she’s a few neurons short of a functioning synapse.
I think as far as Turnbull is concerned that everyone is forgetting that he almost certainly now considers the right of the party to be full of sh*t. It was those on the right that were telling him what a wonderful, trustworthy and unimpeachable asset old Godwin Grech was and whilst he should obviously have been more discerning you can bet he relied heavily on the advice from those long term liberal members of parliament when he accepted Grech’s word and evidence.
I think to understand the Liberal party you need to go back and see how the leadership of the opposition worked in the Hawke/Keating years. The Liberal leadership works on the basis of last man standing. At the end of any government there are numerous people who have the exerience necessery and ambition to be a prime minister. In the Liberal party there are generaly two strong figures, one from each of the factions as well as some moderates in between. Because all of these potential leaders want to be the next PM they undermine each other until only one is untarnished enough to be leader. At this point the Labor party has been in for an extended period of time and the Liberals start working together to get back government.
Well a member of the opposition sceptical of Anthropogenic Global Warming (AGW), and opposed to the requisite ETS, would seek a delayed or post Copenhagen ETS vote, under Hockey, particularly if Turnbull, and Abbot are not acceptable options.
All you need is that party room compromise agreement, and Joe Hockey.
A better than the Abbot choice for the ETS champions too, no doubt.
Attractive too for those opposed to the CTS as they get rid of their ‘despicable’ leader and accept the inevitable.
Also this scenario offers the Coalition a small chance in a potential Double Dissolution election.
Malcolm Turnbull may well be in the right all along however, he may acknowledge the need to implement any scheme that; mitigates against Oil supply failure to meet unprecedented demand, and delivers fossil fuel independent economic reform/recovery, regardless of the AGW lobby. Also release from the political millstone of oil dependency that can be achieved with such reforms.
He is possibly smart enough, but not smart enough to realise that too many members of the coalition are not smart enough?
Today’s editorial in the Oz is a model of its kind. The clarity of the analysis is remarkable – and the message to the Libs is: stay with Turnbull, pass the ETS and remove it from being the overwhelmingly dominant political issue, and all those who can’t live with that should get the hell out of the parliamentary Liberal Party at the next election and let some fresh and more contemporary blood take their places. I think whoever wrote this is sensing two things: the destructive force at work is not Malcolm Turnbull: it’s the ones who didn’t get their way with the absurd spill motion by Kevin ‘Stalking Horse’ Andrews. Second, many of the key denialist players are too smart by half: they have either flip-flopped so badly that the ALP will grind their credibility to dust, or have painted themselves into a lunatic fringe corner somewhat akin to those who suggest that Santa Claus can be expected late next month. My concern is that the conservatives of the Liberal Party will try to garner support by promising the ‘mother of all scare campaigns’ about climate change and the ETS at any election whenever it’s held – just to show that they can do the sort of thing the ACTU did last election. Let’s face it – they’re good at fear.
The Liberals really are at the crossroads.
If Minchin and Abbott succeed in garbbing control of the Liberal Party, what is it’s future?
It will be reduced to a 30 or so seats at next year’s election, which we fought on Climate Change.
The Green’s will pick up some lower house seats given the focus of the campaign, outnumbering the Nationals, and beginning a major shift in the political debate in the Lower House.
The Liberals and Nationals will be competing for the extreme Right with Pauline Hanson, Family First and Fred Nile, and see their Senate numbers wither, while the Greens and Labor will gain control of the Senate.
Abbott would lead the Liberals into obscurity.
However, Hockey would be crazy to take the leadership at this time. The Right has destroyed the party, and should wear the flak coming at the next election.
Hockey’s best option is to prop Turnbull up until the election, and take the reigns then. They may retain 40 seats if Turnbull can neutralise Climate Change as an issue, and hope to rebuild for the 2016 election. Hockey will be 51 then.
Having watched ABC Insiders today, I am more optimistic about how next week might go. Julia Gillard gave a measured and statesmanlike interview. Paul Kelly delivered a cogent political analysis, setting two conditions for Hockey to contest which Barrie Cassidy rightly commented are impossible to meet: firstly, that Turnbull would need to declare the leadership open again (he won’t, after last week’s vote); and secondly that the sceptics and deniers and anti-ETS tax conservatives in the Liberal Party sort out an agreed position on climate change by Tuesday, as Hockey who supports the ETS bills would be mad to take over the Liberal Party reins in the present confusion. Kelly did not spell this out, but Hockey would then be vulnerable to the same kind of destabilisation Turnbull was subjected to by the deniers and opportunists. Finally, it was useful that Andrew Bolt revealed more about his agenda: to push the climate change denialist cause, whatever damage it may do to the Liberal Party.
Anyone watching Insiders today would have come away with a forecast that as long as Turnbull holds to his present principled position, he will honour his party’s commitment to the agreed ETS bills; this ETS will pass; and Turnbull will retain the leadership against any possible leadership candidate from the rebels. ( In whatever order these three things may happen).
I believe Turnbull will emerge the stronger for weathering this trial. By next year – with a reasonable outcome secured from Copenhagen that lays a basis for further global progress towards carbon emissions cuts next year – this week will be remembered by Rudd and Turnbull and the wiser heads in both their parties as a bad dream.
But there are lessons from it. First, do not underestimate the power and ruthlessness of the climate denialist cause; it will eat politicians who allow it to dupe or intimidate them: denialism must be robustly resisted. Second, accept that a lot of mainstream voters are unimpressed by this ETS. Regard it as a basic building block for better climate policies in future. It was not a credible bill; of itself, it probably did not deserve to pass: but when it became a test of strength against the power of the denialists, it had to be passed. We can all do better next year.
If The Greens are smart, when it comes to the final ETS vote, they should vote in favour, with a suitable recording of the ETS bills’ shortcomings. Or do they really want their votes to be counted with the Liberal-Nationals rump of climate know-nothings?
It’s now Sunday and time to put some predictions for next week on the line.
1. ETS passes with support from the Greens and a few Liberals.
2. Turnbull remains leader as Hockey does not stand against him and he wins a party room vote against Abbott.
So the Minchkins are warning Hockey not to go the way of Costello. That is a seriously desperate talking point.
WHAT has the Liberal Party and Andrew Bolt’s blog got in common? Both of them are R/S!
Anybody notice how sick Bolta looked this morning on his favourite chat-show—ABC Insiders! Regards Richard Ryan. PS. Now his wingnut bloggers are over on Tizona’s Group been brain-washed by bingbing—so sad really.
Turnbull has made the reasonable judgement that there is no prospect of winning an election in the foreseeable future and has instead given himself the task of re-inventing the Liberal Party just as Menzies re-invented conservative politics after the collapse of the UAP. The ETS is the right issue on which to make a start on this process.
If he is rolled by Hockey then Hockey will have destroyed himself because he has caved in to hard-right zealots. He will lose badly at the next election and Turnbull will once again be the leader who has the best understanding of the necessary future direction of the party. While he has not well-used his formidable organising powers until now he can be expected to do so in future and he will be up against opponents who are demoralised and lacking credibility.
If he retains the leadership then Minchin, Abbott and crew will be permanently tarnished and diminished (nothing smells quite like a failed coup plotter) and Turnbull will be reinvigorated. It will take a new style and all his ability to charm and organise to to give the party some semblance of unity but at least he will be able to choose issues on which to fight Labor and save the party from total devastation. It will take to marginalise the hard-right altogether but it can be done and a modern workable party could be Turnbull’s legacy even if he never becomes PM>
David: ‘… but at least he will be able to choose issues on which to fight Labor and save the party from total devastation….’
I think Turnbull could reset opposition purpose to critically reviewing and modifying Policy, instead of the useless, counterproductive game of ‘Bash the Govt … no matter what!’, ‘fight Labour’ antics.
He can resurrect the Coalition as a credible alternative Govt and himself as a credible leader if he does so, particularly in this Social Media environment. Continued party political rhetoric, abuse and obstructionism has severely undermined electoral faith in our system.
It’s starting to sound as if Hockey will have a go at the leadership. He’s having a meeting now with Dutton. I have no doubt that Howard would have told him to run – JWH has been wandering the halls of the American Republicans and probably thinks Abbott and Minchin are moderate centrists.
I hope Hockey doesn’t run. I don’t think being Minchin’s bitch will be a very good career move for him or the Liberal Party.
Late News – Howards thrown his hat into the ring
Late late news Cory Bernardi has let Miranda’s praise go to his head and throws her bra into the ring.
Late late late news – Kevin Rudd looking for suitable job to offer Turnbull
Very very foolish if Hockey is even considering taking over the reigns? never understood why Turnbull was so keen on taking the job from Brenden so quickly. Dont any of the pollies understand the concept of timing? the next election is lost to the libs. you dont want to be known for leading the libs into a loss Joe….enjoy your kids for a few more years and let some other idiot take the fall….
Looks like the idea of this blog having people “from every which side of the ideological divide” hasn’t worked so well. Sounds like another LP.
Not even mdma could save the libs at the moment.
Has body shape ever before played such a significant role in the rise of a politician? Put it this way if he looked like Kevin Andrews would he now be about to become the-really-rather-cheap Leader?
Arise, inhale and expand Sir Joe.
Dare I ask any chance of Australia’s most famous political smirk making a comeback? Just kidding…