A week into the election and Labor’s strategy of sleepwalking to victory appears to be working. Even the recalcitrant Nielsen poll has swung in the ALP’s favour in today’s Fairfax papers.
Tony Abbott had a poor start. Eric Abetz ruined his attempt to shut down Workchoices – you certainly can’t say Abetz doesn’t generously share his incompetence with leaders progressive and conservative alike – and there was a strangely slow start for the Liberal HQ that Brian Loughnane will have to explain if he’s on the losing side again.
But even with those hurdles surmounted, there was an “is that it?” feel to Abbott’s campaign, which seems to lack a strategy beyond trying to shut down Workchoices. A big ticket and potentially attractive campaign commitment on the education rebate came and went in the media cycle, with no follow-up from the Liberals and questions about its costings.
Labor’s campaign kicked off with a strong emphasis on population as Julia Gillard dog-whistled her way around Queensland regional centres and outer-suburban Sydney. The fact remains that if John Howard had made the sort of comments on population made by Julia Gillard – with her emphasis on protecting the Australian way of life from the pressures caused by immigration – progressive commentators would have screamed. By mid-week the opportunistic nature of Labor’s campaign had become apparent with both Gillard and Swan denying their emphasis on sustainability meant lower immigration, a bizarre claim that rightly came in for severe criticism, including from Australia’s most famous parliamentary pension holder, Mark Latham.
Labor’s most important task of the week was to finally fill the gaping hole in its climate change credibility where the CPRS used to be. Given Gillard had already ruled out a carbon price in the near-future, there was no chance the policy was ever going to offer a genuinely effective path to decarbonisation, but the breathtaking cynicism of the policy launched by Gillard yesterday had to be seen to be believed. There was more today, with new vehicle emissions standards introduced – but with a generous four-year transition period so our car manufacturers, which are de facto government-owned industries given their level of protection, won’t complain too loudly.
Labor clearly regards climate change as a relatively minor political irritant unlikely to move votes in the outer-suburban and regional seats in Sydney and Queensland where it is concentrating its campaign pitch.
The campaign has been sufficiently boring that the media have been tempted to run with the idea of Kevin Rudd deliberately disrupting the Labor campaign, despite not a jot of evidence to support it. The ABC was the most egregious offender in this regard, with its overhyped new 24 hour news channel kicking off with a nonsensical and, given later revelations by Rudd, almost malicious beat-up about his national security record.
The next major event is notionally Sunday evening’s debate, but the format is so ossified and the chances of interaction between the leaders so minimal that it should more properly be regarded as a joint press conference. Labor’s sleepwalking strategy – in this case, burying the debate on Sunday evening, ensuring the format is as boring as possible – isn’t merely intended to ensure that any unexpected outcomes, like a halfway-decent showing by Abbott, for example, or an unlikely gaffe from the frontrunner, isn’t seen by too many voters. Labor wants to ensure the whole campaign continues to fail to engage voters, preventing the Opposition from gaining any traction with voters.
At the end of first week, Crikey’s Election Commitment Scorecard shows Labor well ahead in its spending commitments, with the Opposition yet to make much of a dent in its savings measures which, while they don’t come within cooee of the proclaimed $47b, will yet provide it some room for some decent announcements.
26 Comments
This very thought passed through my head this morning:
“The ABC was the most egregious offender in this regard, with its overhyped new 24 hour news channel kicking off with a nonsensical and, given later revelations by Rudd, almost malicious beat-up about his national security record.”
But on a serious matter, there seems to be an unnatural obsession with budget balances in this country. When are commentators going to start talking about the cost to employment, rather than the budget bottom line.
There have over six hundred thousand unemployed Australians, and many more underemployed. This waste of productive resources and the long term cost of unemployment is damaging our nation.
The ALP were always going to win the election because the neocons are pathetic and out of touch with everything.
Let’s look at why it is the claim suddenly went out that Rudd had lost touch – the OO’s continual bagging of the HIP and BER. Notice that they have gone very quiet since principals starting saying how much they love their new buildings?
That’s it really.
And Rudd’s supposed failure in Copenhagen as if he was the only frigging person there.
Tony and his toerags have got big policies: “stop the boats” and “no big new tax”. That’s it. Utterly reactionary and useless.
Bernard dearest, have you conveniently forgotten the primary reason we don’t have an emissions trading scheme in place already is because the Greens cynically chose to play wedge politics?
When the Greens voted down the ETS in hope of pushing Labour to the Double Dissolution election that would provide them an opportunity to snaffle several new Senate places, Bob Brown effectively became the Yasser Arafat of Australian Environmental Movement. Should Tony and Toorak Taliban manage to pull off enough electoral smoke and mirrors to come up trumps on the big day, we’ll all be looking back in anger at Belligerent Bob.
Should Julia Gillard retain power with the Greens holding the balance of power in the Senate as is currently projected, we can only hope they grow up enough to understand that it is sometimes compromise is necessary in order to act in the national interest
As for Mark Latham, seemingly now intent on becoming the Quisling Quasimodo of Australian politics, maybe that political pension you refer to should now include a supplementary carers benefit for the unfortunate woman who has to live with a man so depressingly embittered he makes Paul Keating look like a prozac commercial.
I suspect the only positive fallout from this debacle is that Philip Nitschke may finally have found a living argument for euthanasia
Whats the tip. Labor by 13 seats?
How does that reconcile with Abbott’s announcement to dramatically cut the immigration intake by a significant amount, stated to be as much 135,000pa and to keep our population to around 35 million by mid century?
Abbott is now running contradictory policies for business, where he has stated he will get rid of the mining tax that is welcomed by the small and medium mining companies, but at the same time has said immigration will be cut which will substantially increase the shortage of skilled workers that these mining companies are screaming out for. Abbott then does the double whammy against them by promising to not change the IR laws meaning industry will have to pay considerably more for the in demand workers that will be in greater shortage.
Surely the cost of Abbott’s immigration and IR policies to mining companies (and industry in general) is far greater than the cost of an MRRT, which has me questioning why the small to medium mining companies are supporting him, and that came after a meeting with Abbott in WA. Is Abbott’s promise on IR as hollow as his promises on just about everything else?
Looks like Labor in a landslide. Abbot is unelectable with women voters.
Time to consider Abbots replacement: is it too late to change leaders at this stage?
I reckon Turnbull could win it from here. C’mon Libs, be as ruthless as Labor.
Best piece I’ve seen from Bernard Keane for a very long time.
What’s woken him up particularly as simultaneously Labor endeavours to lull everybody else into a stupor?
Labor now just too cynical even for Bernard?
Who could have guessed that Gillard would morph into Rudd-on-’roids?
I suspect though that Gillard will pay in the coming weeks for that announcement on climate policy yesterday.
The rest of the Canberra Press Gallery are mostly just too stunned and can’t quite yet bring themselves to attack the monster that is the Rudd government.
The monster they created.
Perhaps some of those clowns are still deluded that it would be a better government than a Coalition one….
Whatever happens there will be few mea-culpas, I’d venture.
We are really accursed by our loathsome MSM.
Ahh poor James, as the Coalition falls further back in the polls and Abbott is on the nose with just about everyone but the really rusted on he’s lamely attempting to paint Labor as being the lesser government.
The very thought of an Abbott government sends shivers down your spine and especially when you find out that he in his UK rugby days compared Prince Charles to Linda Lovelace. What a buffoon of a leader and you just hang out for the next brain fart that you know is coming. Imagine those brain farts on the world stage?
A good example of a cringe worthy Abbott was his effort to garner the women’s vote today with the way over the top praise of Julie Bishop as if to make out he respects women. Julie Bishop the greatest foreign minister Australia has ever had, please spare me.
Acidic Muse, you dont seem to know your math very well.
KRudd needed 7 more votes to pass the CPRS. there are 5 Green senators. So it was not just the Greens. It was Fielding as well. I dont know how Xenophon voted.
You are technically correct about the vote when Abbott became leader, as 2 Liberals voted for it, meaning only 5 more were needed.
But if the Greens changed their mind, the media would have accused them of backfliping, if nothing else. What would be worse for the Greens would be that they would lose credibility among their voter base. The Greens dont change just because the votes change, they will only change if the policy does.
But then, if the Greens had changed their vote, would the Libs have crossed the floor?
Tony Abbott makes me laugh and that is just by looking at him! Unfortunately it isn’t funny at all if he and his inept cohorts should get into power. No wonder Labor’s election strategy is to play it safe in the national interest, good idea!
@Mobius Ecko
Its evident you are desperate to have reality bend to your blinkered worldview but you would be well advised to not count your chickens….etc
If Tony Abbott is a “bufoon” it would leave you in something of a rather more demeaning character straitjacket than is already patently evident.
I suspect for example that the academic requirements of a Rhodes Scholarship would be well above your competency…………..
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Rhodes_Scholars
but apparently not Bill Clinton’s, Bob Hawke’s …..nor Tony Abbott’s.
Please….. spare us.
My fed-up description of Julia Gillard comes from my own comments after BK’s article “Gillard Abandons Leadership on Climate Change”.
“”Travelling on the same minstrel trail, this ‘Canterbury Tale’, are a band of nuns whose Mother Superior has fiery red hair. Emblazoned on her chest is a double-headed budgerigar, indicating her ability to point in any direction, if it so pleases her.”"
Which comes straight from my heart. Sorry Julia, I am sure you have many fine qualities. However, courage is not one of them.
@ Venise.
Does Tim Mathieson do parakeet coconuts as well?
Der.
Of course it’s a boring election campaign so far.
That’s because both major parties are political professionals and they know that this is a boring electorate, unwilling to vote for any real change to their comfortable lifestyles and easily scared by a bit of excess traffic.
Gillard is absolutely correct to proclaim that there is no real community consensus for a carbon price. Polls show approval for action on climate change when the question is put the right way, but Abbott has proved that most people dither when told that it will mean higher energy prices.
Without higher prices for energy, there can be no action on climate change that will work.
This is not an election where a leader can go to the electorate saying that you will pay more for everything that has an energy input.
If Gillard were to put such a thing to the people, I’d cheer. I might even join the campaign. But, I’d know that it would be a losing campaign in this climate.
I’m willing to forgive Gillard a lot, because priority number one is to win the election. I will hope for more and better after that.
There’s on ly been one decent Rhodes Scholar: Kristopher Kristian Kristofferson. The rest just wasted their education.
As per the Coaltion’s campaign, I actually thought Mr Abbott did ok today – exept for the over praise of Julie Bishop (isn’t she about the worst foreign minister we’ve had? Even if not the worst, Casey? Peacock? Evatt? Evans? ) It was probably too little too late, but at least he mostly sounded like the leader of his party…
This election
whoops – this election will clear out a lot of Liberal dead wood hopefully: when Abbott resigns, as he almost certinaly must (shoudl hte coalition lose), Ms Bishop surely must go with him: Even Mr Howard only had 3 goes at the job (and at least successfully parlayed tha into government… whether he was good or not is besides te point for this discussion)
Just when I thought I couldn’t be more disgusted with Labor’s climate change strategy, along comes the $2,000 trade-in allowance for pre-1995 cars. News flash – by 1995 cars were pretty much as efficient as the are today, with sophisticated electronic fuel injection systems and intelligent automatic transmissions. They’re not in the same league as say earlier cars with carburettors and three-speed autos, which ARE big fuel guzzlers (but very small in number).
The move could be justified in reducing urban air pollution and better primary and secondary safety, but to try to present it as a CLIMATE CHANGE policy is ludicrous. What’s happened is that more recent cars are putting on weight to an alarming degree, thus largely offsetting more efficient engines.
To make it worse, it’s been paid for by cutting funds to CCS (yes, I’m dubious about whether it will work, but it’s at least worth some investigation) and solar power, both of which are real climate change measures.
What sort of idiots do they think we are?
sickofitall – get rid of Abbott and Bishop (removing the ecclesiastical faction
) and what talent would they have left? Andrew Robb and….? If Christopher Pyne is the brave new face of the moderates heaven help the Liberal party being anything more than a far-right rump, a bastard cross between the DLP and One Nation.
What a choice we Australians face on August 21. In one corner we have Hoolia Saleyard and in the other corner we have Phony Rabbit. Fortunately, to attempt some sanity and balance we have the third player, Sob Crown.
What on earth has happened to the Spirit of Australia???
When this land was first discovered and placed on maps – way way back – this land was called TERRA AUSTRALIS ET CUM SPIRITU SANCTO – which is Latin for GREAT SOUTHERN LAND OF THE HOLY SPIRIT. THAT was Australia’a original name and description. The origins of the word “Holy” come from the concept of the word “Whole”. How “whole” are the policies and intentions and the visions of either of our major leaders and parties???? Both still see wars and conflicts as honourable necessities and refuse to open GENUINE DEBATE on TWO war fronts which so many never wanted to be a part of in the first place – and still do not. One sees Climate Change with skeptisim and only as a “political issue” to raise or not – depending on how popular the issue raising is – whilst the other treats Climate Change as a football to kick around – but only IF there is a chance to kick goals with it.
And WE the People have become apathetic and disinterested and disengaged from it all now because we know that we cannot do much about it all anyway – IN TRUTH AND FACT – and that our leaders will do whatever they intend to do anyway – irrespective of what we say and how we feel about it. We the People only THINK we have any REAL power but the recent ruthless political decapitation of KRudd showed us all very clearly that when push comes to shove, the REAL power players who make things happen, or not, are the REAL powers after all.
Where is the “spiritu sancto” among our leaders???
And has OUR “spiritu sancto” disappeared and gone forever or is it just hiding in a corner somewhere afraid to show its face lest it be deemed “impractical or outdated”??? If ever there was a time that we ALL needed noble “spiritu sancto”,
surely that time is NOW.
@ Malcolm
The $2,000 is a shallow attempt by Labor to revive interest in its “Australian hybrid”. Remember that? It was one of Kevvie’s big initiatives and, despite projecting sales of 20,000 p.a., barely made it to a few hundred (after politically-correct Government buyers are excluded from the figures).
“What sort of idiots do they think we are?”
Hmm, the same sort that have put up with Labor incompetnence for three years, and thinks we’ll come back for a second serving.
The future of the Liberal Party, if it even has one, is Malcolm Turnbull. Expect him to be back in the pilot’s seat before 2014.
If the Liberals ever completely culled their dead wood, they’d be left with just Malcom Turnball and a pile of kindling.
Granted Labour would no doubt make a substantial contribution to this particlar bonfire of inanities but at least a handful of their union apparatchiks and machine ALP staffers show empathy for the common man and occasional flashes of political talent.
Who knew we’d ever come to miss Paul Keating and Gareth Evans this much
Abbott Highlight of the week for me was the Vietnamese fruiterer;)
I’ll vote for the first climate change policy which is effective in reducing CO2, rather than effective in molifying political discontent. Its a fairly simple standard to apply.
“Julie Bishop (isn’t she about the worst foreign minister we’ve had? ” asks sickofitall.
Ans: No.
But I’m not going to tell you why that’s the case ……..
Can work it out sickie?
“A week into the election and Labor’s strategy of sleepwalking to victory appears to be working.”