The political stalemate continues in the latest Essential Report poll: the two parties remain stuck in their post-election position of polling lock-up, with Labor and the Coalition on 50:50 on a 2PP basis. We’re now into a third month of deadlock in the levels of support for the major parties. Levels of primary support for the parties were virtually unchanged – Labor up a point to 41%, the Coalition steady on 44%, the Greens down 1 to 8%.
Essential also asked about the three issues dominating politics in recent weeks: Afghanistan, asylum seekers and the Murray-Darling.
Support for our role in Afghanistan remains at about the same levels as a fortnight ago, with just under half of voters (47%) favouring withdrawal, down two points in a fortnight and well down on the 61% favouring withdrawal in June. 10% of voters support a larger role for Australia, but the same consistency across party lines that has been a persistent feature of voter views of the conflict remains – 10%, 12% and 10% of Labor, Liberal and Greens voters favour a greater role, and 49%, 45% and 55% favour withdrawal. Interestingly, the Coalition’s traditional strength on national security issues doesn’t translate into support on this specific conflict – Labor leads by a point on the question of who is most trusted to handle the war, 33-32%, with 7% opting for the Greens.
On the MDB, there is strong cross-party support for reducing water allocations in the Basin, with 49% supporting reduced allocations and only 20% disagreeing with less water for irrigation – but there was a high don’t know response, 31%. Greens are more likely to support reduced allocations, but even 47% of Liberal back them as well. Nearly half of voters supported action on the MDB “even if it means some job losses or other economic impact”, while 31% said “protecting the economic well being of local communities and jobs” should be first priority. Liberal voters were evenly divided, while Labor and especially Greens voters were strongly in support of the first option.
On asylum seekers. there was no joy for Labor even from its own supporters. Only 33% approve of the Government’s decision to let children and families live in the community, compared to 53% who disapprove. The move drew very high rates of strong disapproval – 23% of Labor voters, 38% of Liberal voters and even 16% of Greens voters, although 63% of Greens voters approved of the decision, compared to only 24% of Liberals and 42% of Labor voters – compared to 43% of Labor voters who disapproved.
10 Comments
It would be interesting to see some more breakdown in terms of age and regional differences here.
If you look at most polls which examine voting intention and views on matters such as Environment and Asylum seekers, for example, there is a very big difference on balance between those under 30 and those over 55 – The latest Neilsen, for example has the under thirty vote breaking 30% first pref Labour to 20% Green, while amongst the over 55′s it is 34% Labor to only 8% Green.
The shape of future politics, and the impact of particular policies, depend in a significant part on such things.
Gillard is that she is no leader and appears dimensionless. Making jokes and being droll maybe popular with insiders and her ardent supporters but it reveals that is who she is, an insider, machine politician. She has no ideas, strategy, and little connection with the people, directionless…she is the consummate seat-warmer. You would be hard pressed to even know she was PM.
She grabbed the job and has since the very first week been leading Labor into the wilderness. Going by the standard she previously used, and these latest polls are far worse, she should step down…as she has lost her way and the government losing the support.
An interesting thing to keep an eye on, and something I mentioned earlier, is that as Labor starts to get on the nose the independents will start to distance themselves, at that may end the govt.
“no joy for Labor on kids in detention”
A pity too. Because it sounds like such a joyous subject…
There is unlikely to be any movement in polls until things actually happen in govt.
So far we’ve had positioning and the introduction of legislation — but no real outcomes.
How is the electorate supposed to have a view?
I’m afraid I have no time for journalists who keep agitating for change, and keep saying there has been no movement, when in reality there cannot be any yet!
And the opposition’s constant MPIs over things that cannot YET be acted upon by government is quite ridiculous.
The media gallery might think t is really interesting, but they need to get over themselves and start looking at what is actually happening, not what they think might happen.
THis banking thing is a perfect example — Hockey is bagging the banks over the fact that they ‘might’ want to raise rates. Have they done it? NO. It is merely ‘fear mongering’ from the opposition — something they have become very adept at.
Irritating, not distressing.
From jenauthor: “… It is merely ‘fear mongering’ from the opposition …”
Who cares what the opposition thinks, does or says? We have a Government. The Government runs the show; that’s who you pay attention to. That’s where policies are made and implemented, money spent or withheld. The election’s over. Let’s see how the Government governs, now.
I agree. The thing is the media is only paying attention to Opposition a lot of the time.
Jenauthor noted the media’s cramped viewing.
More importantly, how do you get Italics on a posting?
GS
put square brackets around the text [
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and then move down to next line
Works. Thanks.
Now all you need is all the smileys!
