Readers of The Economist may be familiar with the political predictions of the Iowa Electronic Markets. That great British magazine regularly publishes the market on the US Presidential election as an alternative to relying on the opinion polls because history shows it is a better indicator. Without going in to all the detail (you can read that for yourself here ) the average error of opinion polls is 1.9% compared to an error of 1.5% for markets.
The Iowa Electronic Markets are operated by faculty at the University of Iowa Tippie College of Business as part of its research and teaching mission. Because of the limited range of events it operates on, Richard Farmer in 2004 began using the markets from the British Betfair website to develop an Election Indicator on other contests.
The Crikey election indicators are an indication of what the market thinks is the likely result when an election is finally held. In that respect they are different from opinion polls that are meant to indicate what the result would be at the time the poll was taken.
CURRENT PREDICTIONS
AUSTRALIA
Winner of the next federal election
- As at 15 November 2011
To lead Labor at the next federal election
As at 15 November 2011
UNITED STATES
2012 Presidential election – party of the election winner
As at 15 November 2011Some of the markets included in the compilation of the American election indicators are those of Intrade. The latest markets on the presidential election are graphed below.
Republican primaries and caucuses
A Democrat to become president in 2012:
A Republican to become president in 2012
Republican Presidential Nominee
- As at 15 November 2011
United States to enter recession in 2012
As at 15 November 2011
THE OSCARS – BEST FILM
UNITED KINGDOM
As at 17 November 2011
PREVIOUS PREDICTIONS
USA
The bookies paid on the favourite just getting home in this Caucus by eight votes but the final count showed Santorum as the winner! The market was right to be a bit diffident.
Romney was the clear winner this time:
And Gingrich made a come back
DENMARK
AUSTRALIA
NEW ZEALAND
And the Nationals were easy winners.
As at 15 November – the National government just keeps on getting firmer favourites as voting day gets closer.
SPAIN
W victory for the favourite
As at 15 November 2011
UNITED KINGDOM
Oldham East and Saddleworth By-Election
