‘Melbournes’: how many are there?
A new Australian site, Other Cities, has just published a must-read article for anyone interested in cities. It’s an interview with Kevin O’Connor, Professorial Fellow in Urban Planning at the University of Melbourne.
This fascinating and insightful interview covers many issues from developer levies to public transport to cars to where university workers live. I find I agree in almost all respects with Professor O’Connor’s analysis and suggested solutions.
He starts with the idea that residents’ social, working, family and community lives tend to revolve around a limited geographical area centred on where they live.
Using his home city as an example, he argues there are really ‘five Melbournes’ – the inner city plus west, north, east and south regions. He provides an effective illustration of peoples’ home-centredness: “for most people their Melway (street) directory has half-a-dozen maps that are all well used, while the rest are virtually untouched”.
I’ve published data before that supports Professor O’Connor’s contention that Melbourne is regionalised. As discussed here in more detail, the residents of each of the city’s 31 municipalities display a highly localised journey-to-work pattern. For example, around 80% of workers living in Monash, Brimbank, Casey and Cardinia either work within their home municipality or in a contiguous one.
This is consistent with a point I’ve made here many times before – half of Melbourne’s jobs are more than 13 km from the CBD and 72% are more than 5 km. Moreover, the great bulk of suburban jobs – 80% – aren’t in the 31 largest suburban centres but rather are dispersed across the suburbs in smaller district and neighbourhood centres.
The VISTA data on travel patterns tells the same story. Cars account for around 90% of all trips by Melburnians and half of these are shorter than 5 km. Almost two thirds are shorter than 8 km. The corresponding figures for public transport are 21% and 37%, indicating its forte is longer trips.
The data also supports Professor O’Connor’s observation that the staff of universities tend to live near their workplace. More than two thirds of staff at the La Trobe and Monash university main campuses work within their ‘home’ region (see exhibit).
Melbourne University seems different at first glance – only a little over a quarter of the University’s workers live in the inner city (Melbourne, Yarra, Port Phillip municipalities). This apparently lower regional share is probably due to factors like its higher metropolitan accessibility and the high cost of housing close to the centre.
However the inner city is small geographically as well as in terms of its share of metropolitan population relative to the other regions. The inner suburbs seem a better measure. When Moreland, Darebin, Stonnington, Boroondara and Moonee Valley municipalities are added to the inner city, the share of Melbourne University workers living in the University’s ‘home region’ is 61%, similar to La Trobe and Monash.
This pattern is repeated for students – for example, 58% of La Trobe students live in the northern region. La Trobe is only 13 km from the CBD, so if inner city addresses north of the Yarra are also counted within the ‘home region’ the number rises to 68%.
As Professor O’Connor suggests, policy needs to come to grips with the highly decentralised, dispersed, regionalised and car-based pattern of suburban development. An effective centres policy is an obvious place to start, although it’s important to understand that most suburban firms have little appetite for the costs and congestion of large regional centres.
Flexible transport systems like cars and buses are likely to be the most plausible approach to intra-regional transport where activities are dispersed. The focus of policy accordingly needs to be on ways of improving their performance (e.g. see here and here). Proposals like the Rowville rail line, however, misunderstand what’s going on in our suburbs and cities.
While Melbourne’s CBD (including Docklands and Southbank) only has circa 15% of all metropolitan jobs, access to the city centre from all parts of the metropolitan area nevertheless remains of vital importance. The CBD isn’t the great job destination for suburbanites it once was, but the great majority of CBD jobs are still filled by workers who live in the suburbs.
No matter where you live, if you work for a major corporation or in certain industry sectors like insurance and business services, there’s a high probability you’ll need good access to the CBD. You can’t even do that quintessentially Melbourne thing of going to the footy unless you can get to the MCG or Docklands.
Similarly, you can’t see the latest teenybopper sensation, One Direction; or go to the opera, theatre or major public galleries; or lose your shirt at Crown Casino; or get your nose bloodied in King Street, unless you can get down town. For the vast majority of Melburnians, travel to the CBD is only occasional, but outside their home region it’s the only metropolitan destination most have in common.
Not surprisingly given views I’ve expressed before, I think Professor O’Connor makes a very important point when he says that reducing the size of lots and fitting more people into less space seems to be the only policy response that’s offered to urban sprawl:
I worry less about urban sprawl as a physical feature, and more about accessibility to services, and the fact that we are willing to allow housing and population growth, but have no plans in hand to match that with additional schools, doctors surgeries, hospitals, TAFE colleges and the like.
I also agree with his view that existing infrastructure in the inner city (and I’d extend that to the inner suburbs more generally) no longer has spare capacity. He says that to date:
higher density redevelopment has been based on the idea that there is surplus capacity in the inner city. When inner city population development began it was quite reasonable to compare historical and current population figures and decide that the inner city was “under-populated” to an extent. However, over the last decade population growth has changed that situation.
You might not agree with all Professor O’Connor has to say, but you should find it thought-provoking and challenging. And it’s very readable. It will be interesting to watch the development of the Other Cities site, which will focus on in-depth interviews with people who’re involved with the built environment. Professor O’Connor is the first interview. The site is run by Sofia Anapliotis, David Morison and Nick Stephenson.










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I’ve always found that Kevin makes a fair bit of sense – probably because he tries to use data instead of just making it up.
However, it does make you wonder whether we shouldn’t be doing more to make the 90+% of trips within people’s local area better rather than planning to spend even more mega-bucks on massive road projects. Spending $1m at each of 1000 locations (or $10m at 100 locations even) around Melbourne could do a lot to make travel easier (and safer) – a bit of bus/tram priority in there would help as well.
I expect this would also create a lot more real jobs and happen much faster as well!
Parker Alan OAM,
what happens in the US, happens in Australia a few years later US. Its it going to happen here because . Census data and Experts Confirm Death of Sprawl in US
“Posted Apr 10, 2012 by Warren Karlenzig Originally posted at Common Current.
The United States has reached an historic moment. The exurban development explosion that defined national growth during the past two decades has come to a screeching halt, according to the latest US Census figures. Only 1 of the 100 highest-growth US communities of 2006—all of them in sprawled areas—reported a significant population gain in 2011, prompting Yale economist Robert Shiller to predict suburbs overall may not see growth “during our lifetimes.”
We are simultaneously witnessing the decline of the economic sectors enabled by hypergrowth development: strip malls and massive shopping centers, SUVs and McMansions. The end of exurban population growth has been accompanied by steep economic decline in real estate value, triggering a loss of spending not only in construction, but also home improvement (Home Depot, Best Buy) and numerous associated retail sectors that were banking on the long-term rising fortunes of Boomburbs. The fate of these communities has been so dire that for the first time in the United States suburbs now have greater poverty than cities”.
The Dinosaurs In the Australian planning community need to
Heads around in the real world and take a look at what is happening, Australian oil is running out the growing national debt is growing as China cuts back its imports from Australia .Climate change is here to stay Australia. The impact of a more volatile and here to to stay. As I see it urban planners live in cloud cuckoo
Last Name, First Name,
I’m not sure that we can conclusively say that ‘Sprawl is Dead’, particularly in the US. There are definitely Census Bureau estimates that show encouraging signs.
However, firstly, these are just estimates (which often are far from accurate). Secondly, to what extent is the improving demographics trends of inner cities just an anomaly of the GFC?
If young people can not get a job, they will continue living with their parents, who generally live in older, established inner suburbs. People are also going back to university to skill up in the hope of getting a job – student housing is more often then not in the inner city near university.
Finally, people are not moving out to the suburbs in droves as they were before the GFC because they can not get the finance, there is huge uncertainty in the housing market (not conducive to confidence) and the industries that were previously large employers in the suburbs (and suburban cities. i.e. Phoenix), such as construction and retail, were supported by free-flowing, low-interest debt spending which has now come to an end.
As to what will happen from here, there is much speculation. Richard Floride believes we will see a revival of inner cities, as they will become the next centre of the ‘knowledge economy.’ But others such as Aaron Renn make the point that thare is just not enough potential to cater for housing growth in the inner city. Surburbia might not be dead yet..
Australian planners ought to pay no attention to what is happening in the United States. They also ought to have learnt long ago that US cities are not like Australian ones. “Sprawl” in the US means having the richest citizens, and the best jobs pushing outside the city boundaries (hence “ex-urban”) to different tax districts and (in many cases) the near abandonment of the inner areas. “Sprawl” in Australia means tacking low-income suburbs onto a continuous outer-fringe. They are superficially similar at best. The socio-economic profile of most American cities is almost completely inverted to Australian ones because here the richest suburbs remain clustered around the urban core.
Australia may well be in a housing bubble, but it doesn’t have exurbs, because the tax base supports state revenues, and there is no evidence of significant office and retail speculation on the suburban fringe; which in the US was predicated on exurban tax incentives and continuing growth of those areas. Even if the Australian housing market implodes, the results won’t look anything like the US. The likely outcome is big losses on inner-city investment properties and stagnant growth amongst owner-occupiers with negative equity. Widespread foreclosures as seen in the US are much less likely.
The cost of oil would only be relevant if suburban residents were undertaking long commutes. But as was discussed in the article, they largely aren’t. Moreover, increasing housing density and providing major infrastructure is much more difficult than shifting retail density, jobs and trip patterns. An increase in the cost of travel (by oil, by congestion) will merely accelerate suburban decentralization; it will only very very slowly reshape suburban patterns of living.
For some of us there had always been two Melbournes…namely ”East and West of Sydney Road”, reinforced by the other two Melbournes “those that lived on your side of the River, and those that did not”.
There are probably more than five ‘Sydneys’. The Harbour is one dividing line. The Northern Beaches, Eastern suburbs and ‘the Shire’ are separate realms unto themselves, their inhabitants rarely venturing outside except for holidays. Then you have the West, totally divorced from Sydney’s image as a city of the Harbour and the Beaches – even the weather is different. The west itself is a collection of regions with the affluent North West, the highly multicultural Canterbury-Bankstown-Fairfield areas, the outer South West and so on.
Congestion is making travel by car less and less attractive in all parts of Sydney and I would suggest only marginally viable within about 12-15 km of the CBD. After dealing with gridlock there’s nowhere to park when you arrive. However, unless you are travelling to the CBD or somewhere on the direct route to the CBD, public transport is a very unattractive proposition. Between congested traffic, low frequency (especially in outer regions) and circuitous routes, travel by public transport between nearby suburbs is barely faster than walking. Cycling isn’t the answer except for a tiny minority. What we need is much better planning and organisation of public transport around major regional suburban centres rather than the CBD-centred model we have now.
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