Does equality of opportunity produce…..equality?
Federal MP Andrew Leigh has a vivid metaphor for describing inequality in Australia. He asks us to imagine a ladder in which each rung represents $1 million of household wealth. Then:
- The typical Australian household is halfway to the first rung
- A household in the top 1% is at least 5 rungs from the ground
- Gina Reinhardt is 8 kilometres off the ground (that puts her around 26,000 rungs up)
Inequality is getting worse and worse in Australia and many developed countries. Dr Leigh points to a range of possible causes, but gives most attention to taxation. He says taxation – especially low marginal tax rates – can explain a third to a half of the rise in top income shares in English-speaking countries between 1970 and 2000.
As I’ve discussed before, improving equality of opportunity is a key way to create a more equitable society. However in a remarkable new book released last month, Twilight of the Elites: America after Meritocracy, Christopher Hayes argues it’s not enough. We must also concern ourselves with equality of outcomes.
He contends equality of opportunity does not inexorably produce equality of outcomes – the ideology of meritocratic achievement stands in the way of social progress.
The first commandment of the post-1970s meritocracy can be summed up as follows: “Thou shall provide equality of opportunity to all, regardless of race, gender, or sexual orientation, but worry not about equality of outcomes.”
In an interview with Rolling Stone reporter Julian Brookes, he says meritocracy is insidious because it “countenances and tells a story that justifies the extreme inequality. Which is why you see those extreme payouts at the top. And those extreme payouts create a tremendous corrupting influence.”
He explains how the mechanisms of mobility and of equal opportunity are inevitably subverted by unequal power and wealth.
We want to make a neat division between equality of opportunity and equality of outcome, but in practice, we can’t. I use my high school, Hunter College in New York City, as an example. It’s a public school, free, open to students from all five boroughs, but it’s highly selective. When I went there, in the 1990s, you took one test to get in, in sixth grade. If you scored high enough you got in, if not, not. And if you were the mayor’s kid and you didn’t score high enough, you didn’t get in. That’s the kind of democratizing promise of the meritocracy.
What’s happened over time is you’ve seen a decline in black and Latino students in the school — who were always underrepresented, but are even more so now — at the same time as there’s been this growth of a test prep industry. Parents are paying thousands of dollars for cram schools to prepare their kids for the test, and now the majority of kids getting in are products of the test-prep regime. So the test prep industry has been this perfect parable: You have this scarce resource — a spot at an elite school — and people with money in a very unequal city have a clear advantage over those who don’t.
Here’s a brief extract from his book which I think gathers up some of Haye’s key ideas. He starts off with the arresting proposition that the US has made “remarkable, improbable, even transcendent progress toward equality” over the last seven decades. Best to let him speak for himself:
Since World War II, we’ve seen two distinct eras of equality in which a whole host of deeply embedded, overwhelmingly powerful systems of inequality were dramatically weakened, and in some cases all but destroyed.
The first era of equality, from the end of the Second World War to the early 1970s, represented a period of historically unprecedented growth, mass affluence, and middle-class expansion that has not been duplicated since. Income inequality markedly declined, even as the economy posted a nearly unmatched level of annual GDP growth. Union density rose as high as 34 percent (the highest it’s ever been), while the ratio between average CEO compensation and average production worker compensation hovered around 25 (by 2009 it was 185), and people up and down the income scale saw remarkable material gains.
Between 1947 and 1979 real family income grew for everyone but it grew the most for the poorest 20 percent of the population. Compare that to the period from 1979 to 2009, when real family income declined for those in the lowest income quintile, while increasing annually by 1.2 percent for those in the top quintile. During the Great Compression income gains were relatively evenly distributed, while in the three decades after 1979, the top 10 percent captured all of the income gains, while incomes for the bottom 90 percent declined
The fact that the first era of equality—with its strong middle class, manufacturing base, union density, but also “traditional families,” higher levels of church attendance, and far less tolerance for sexual identities outside rigidly prescribed norms—has something to recommend to both the left and the right means that we are gripped by a tangled kind of nostalgia politics. “Here, in the first decade of the twenty-first century,” writer Brink Lindsey observed in a 2006 essay, “the rival ideologies of left and right are both pining for the ’50s. The only difference is that liberals want to work there, while conservatives want to go home there.”
Lindsey, a libertarian, prefers the values of the second era of equality, the period from the mid to late 1970s until now that follows the contours of our meritocratic model: more equality along lines of race, gender, and sexual orientation, with far greater inequality and segregation in skills, wages, and wealth: More women law students, more black doctors, more openly gay millionaires.
I don’t share Lindsey’s politics, but I do think there’s much to celebrate now. It’s senseless to pine for a bygone era of Jim Crow, Mad Men–style casual sexual harassment and gender apartheid, police raids of underground gay bars and sodomy prosecutions, and laws against interracial marriage. The second era of equality has dismantled many (though certainly by no means all) of the legal and cultural structures that regulated and enforced these brutal inequalities of race, gender, and sexual orientation. Women entered the workforce in unprecedented numbers, and trends suggest that in the very near future, women will surpass men in all levels of educational attainment. While women still make on average 23 percent less than men, that gap has shrunk markedly since 1980, when women made on average 40 percent less.
As for racial equity, the gains are decidedly more mixed, but one unambiguous achievement of the second era of equality is that the elite has undoubtedly become more diverse. In 1975, only 1.4 percent of black households made more than $100,000. By 2006, it was more than six times that, a considerably faster rate of growth than that of white households. The number of black officeholders doubled between 1975 and 1993. And of course, there is what many view as the crowning achievement of the Civil Rights era: the first black president of the United States.
Equality for LGBT people hardly existed as a political issue during the first era of equality, while during the second the strides have been historic and remarkable: in 2003, the Supreme Court in Lawrence v. Texas struck down sodomy laws as unconstitutional. Eight states plus the District of Columbia have legalized gay marriage, while 58 percent of Fortune 500 companies offer benefits to same-sex partnerships. As of 2011, gays and lesbians can serve openly for the first time in the history of the United States military.
So the first era of equality produced an unprecedented reduction in economic inequality, a reduction that did not last, but that was, in some senses, replaced by a dramatic, if patchy and incomplete, reduction in inequality along the lines of gender, race, and sexual orientation
Given this history, the path forward is clear, if not exactly easy: we need to bring about a social order that combines the best things about each era of equality, one that shrinks the yawning social distance that now makes elite failure inevitable
The first step is persuading the public—including the elites themselves—that the ideology of meritocratic achievement stands in the way of social progress. The first commandment of the post-1970s meritocracy can be summed up as follows: “Thou shall provide equality of opportunity to all, regardless of race, gender, or sexual orientation, but worry not about equality of outcomes.”
But what we’ve seen time and time again is that the two aren’t so neatly separated. If you don’t concern yourself at all with equality of outcomes, you will, over time, produce a system with horrendous inequality of opportunity. This is the paradox of meritocracy: It can only truly come to flower in a society that starts out with a relatively high degree of equality. So if you want meritocracy, work for equality. Because it is only in a society which values equality of actual outcomes, one that promotes the commonweal and social solidarity, that equal opportunity and earned mobility can flourish.
I thought it was a fabulous read. And thanks to the wonder of e-readers and the internet, we can read it now (I couldn’t see it in hardcopy in any local bookstores). Here are some reviews: Aaron Swartz at Crooked Timber, Hua Hsu at Slate, and Nick Krafft at Open Economics.












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I’ve only read your links, not the book, but am not impressed. Maybe we cared more about equality of outcome than the Americans, with our better welfare system etc, but those of us old enough can remember where it went wrong, and why.
For example, you quote Hayes: “The second era of equality has dismantled many (though certainly by no means all) of the legal and cultural structures that regulated and enforced these brutal inequalities of race, gender, and sexual orientation.” But that progress in social equality had been continuing for a long time; the second era of equality was a continuation of the first, not something new.
It took a while, after the war, for private corporations to re-assert their dominance over government. Politicians came out of the war believing that government was in control. But by the time Eisenhower retired he was warning of the power of the ‘military-industrial complex’. It took ’till the late seventies for private corporations to be effectively running the show, and we then saw the changes to tax laws etc that have allowed the well-off to become the super-rich and, consequently, super-powerful.
Boscombe #1
He’s talking about the US where race tends to dominate. But even here, while there were various activists struggling through the 50s and 60s, real changes didn’t come until the 70s, esp with the (2nd) Dunstan (1970), Whitlam (1972) and Wran (1976) Governments. Equal pay for women, for example, wasn’t ratifed until 1972. Laws which carried prison sentences were still applied to consenting male homosexual acts in most Australian states until the mid 70s, in Qld until the mid 80s, and in Tasmania until 1997. Federal law didn’t give same-sex couples the same rights as de facto heterosexul couples over matters like superannuation until 2009.
And Mr Leigh may be good at metaphors, but is, as the ALP member for Fraser, hardly the man to talk about equality. His parliamentary pension, assuming he survives the next two elections, puts him probably a couple of rungs off the ground.
Note that your link “worse and worse” is to a static situation – it does NOT show that inequality is getting worse in Australia. It shows that inequality, measured by the Gini curve, is at 0.33 at a particular point in time. Which is probably a pretty good outcome.
And also note that the illustrations are from US sources, where undoubtedly ‘inequality’ has got worse. I recall, though I cannot remember where I saw it, that inequality of outcome in Australia has been reduced, not increased.
It all depends on how you measure things. If you consider that in the 1950s most women did not work, and had no bank accounts or money of their own, then the degree of inequality was far greater than it is now. Yes, top incomes have soared, far faster and greater than others. So what? When the general level of wealth has evened out, it is not surprising that the ‘high flyers’ have soared away from the ruck, if I can mix metaphors.
It also depends on where your start and finish points are. Start with 1989, and end in 2006 and you have a rapidly increasing wealth spread. Start in 1981 and end in 2010 and you have a different picture, due largely to booms and slumps in house prices. As the value of a house forms a fair chunk of a family’s net wealth, this can make quite a fair difference.
One would need to look very carefully at the details of the calculation of ‘wealth’, just as one would need to look very carefully at the calculation of ‘income’ in any discussion on thee subjects. When there are substantial payments for various things, from central or state or local government, paid for from general or specific taxation, it can be very misleading if some of these are left out of the equation. Consider education. Send a child to a State school and there are very substantial payments from State and Commonwealth governments towards the cost of education of your child, which should properly be counted as ‘income’. Consider the value of a State supported pension. The future income stream has a net present value which is quite considerable, especially for MPs!
So, equality of opportunity does not produce equality of outcome. It is not supposed to, nor should it. People, no matter how much Mr Leigh wants it, are not equal, and their differences will always result in dofferent outcomes. If you try to impose equal outcomes, you get either the “doesn’t matter whether I work or not, it is all the same” outcome where the outcome is at the bottom, or the “if I work inside the legal system, hard work does me no good so I will work in the illegal system” where the truly hard working get degrees of affluence that would make Mrs Reinhardt be rather jealous. Both were tried in Socialist systems, and resulted in disaster.
Alan – Those social advances and changes in the law in the 70s and 80s were the result of changes in attitudes that started earlier, and they were demanded by people who grew up in the post-war prosperity society. They didn’t grow out of the increasing inequality of 70s, 80s and 90s.
Dudley, I don’t think the progressive income tax of the 1960s seriously reduced anyone’s incentive to work, or was particularly socialist. Did we need all the tax cuts for the well off that we’ve had over the years?
Dudley Horscroft #3
You’re a hard taskmaster Dudley, but you missed two important points re the link I provided. First, re whether inequality is increasing, note it says “However Professor Kreuger notes there’s been a significant increase in inequality in the US since the 1980s. He says that if the cross-sectional pattern shown in the exhibit were to hold into the future, the IGE for the US would rise from 0.47 to 0.56.” Sure, it’s the US not Australia.
And second, so far as it being based on US sources, note the diagram includes a number of countries in addition to the US, one of which is Australia.
Boscombe #4
Well OK, the pressure for greater social equality started to build in the 50s and 60s and started to take concrete form from the 70s, but does that invalidate his proposition (although your point is a very interesting one in its own right – perhaps the greater economic equality of the 50s/60s was a pre-condition for the social equality of the later decades)?
Equality of opportunity rewards those who work hard and take advantage of their opportunities.
But it should be accompanied by a ‘safety net’ for those who need it. We have all heard horror stories of elderly people who can’t afford a private dentist, spend years on a public waiting list, and end up having to pull out their own teeth in desperation.
Keeping people in prison is often more expensive than treating them in hospital. Here, no doctors bulk bill. The $25 co-payment for a 15 minute visit almost certainly deters some people from getting much-needed treatment, and probably cost more in the long run through increased risk of infections spreading through the community.
There’s no doubt the power of the political lobby has increased. I see no reason why companies should pay less tax than their shareholders. Keeping the rates the same (37c in the $, assuming most shareholders are in the $80,000 bracket) would make tax calculations a whole lot easier.
Moreover the “surplus at all costs” mantra seems like a false economy. Slashing much-needed programs saves very little and re-instating them to mitigate the resulting problems is likely to cost at least 10 times any so-called savings.
Providing safety nets and second chances for people who don’t succeed the first time round is a good way of reducing inequality, so is good for society and is likely to save taxpayers a whole lot of money in the long run.
I’d've thought the US’s biggest problem is the fact that social mobility there has been decreasing for a long time, to the point it’s now significantly below that of most Western nations – in other words, not only are the poor now much poorer than the rich, but they have very little chance of escaping poverty. To me that’s by far and a way the single biggest indictment of the tendency there to belittle anything that might be considered socialism or welfare. But the unfortunate reality is that US citizens continue to vote for leaders who aren’t promising much of a break from that, so I doubt anything will change anytime soon. It can’t last forever though.
Taxation. In Australia in 1950 only the top third of incomes paid income tax, but the tax threshholds lagged increases in income so that by 2011 all adult Australians, even those only receiving Newstart Allowance had to pay income tax.
Income equality. In the late 1960s I remember my university educated mother bitterly railing about being paid 2/3 of the male wage when her male co-worker was lazy, had lower quality education than his female counterparts and was suspected of [literally] stealing money out of his co-workers purses. Their response was to only keep their lunch money in their purse.
This ties in with the article in the Guardian about how trickle down effect doesn’t work as the rich offshore their wealth to tax havens like the Caymans, where Mitch Romney and Reg Grundy play
Alan – only reading bits of Hayes, I might be misunderstanding him, but when he writes like this: “So the first era of equality produced an unprecedented reduction in economic inequality, a reduction that did not last, but that was, in some senses, replaced by a dramatic, if patchy and incomplete, reduction in inequality along the lines of gender, race, and sexual orientation” it seems he credits growing economic inequality as somehow a pre-condition for the social advances of the 70s – 90s.
Maybe he thinks Germaine Greer started feminism, but I would point to Betty Friedan, Simone de Beauvoir, the suffragettes …. those social gains were part of a long social change and influenced by many historical/economic factors along the way
He’s one of those writers that I read while thinking ‘what is he saying?’, I feel like shouting “Dot points, please!”. I don’t think we need grand theories to explain why the well-off became the super-rich. Yes, factors like technology and globalisation played a part, but really it was simply the well-off getting government to favour them when ‘reforming’ tax and investment laws. It could be reversed, but probably only when collapse causes the public to demand that government step in and really run things for the general community benefit.
boscombe: “it seems he credits growing economic inequality as somehow a pre-condition for the social advances of the 70s – 90s.” I read the book and I certainly didn’t come away with that idea. Have you seen a review that makes that charge? AD
Maybe it was this bit:
“Lindsey, a libertarian, prefers the values of the second era of equality, the period from the mid to late 1970s until now that follows the contours of our meritocratic model: more equality along lines of race, gender, and sexual orientation, with far greater inequality and segregation in skills, wages, and wealth…I don’t share Lindsey’s politics, but I do think there’s much to celebrate now… The second era of equality has dismantled ….
He seems to sort of approve – he says ‘much to celebrate’, of this ‘second era of equality’ which has, as the other side of the coin to social progress, rising economic inequality. But this is a tiny fraction of a book I haven’t read, so I’m happy to accept your view that that’s not what he means. I still don’t think there is any second era of equality: the values driving these changes have been working away for a long time.
boscombe – I also suspect it has something to do with your statement “Politicians came out of the war believing that government was in control.”
They were probably right, but at that time “Government” was largely a bureaucracy that implemented broad political direction provided by parliament with professionalism, some inertia and an eye on the long term.
In today’s world this has been replaced by a few executive politicians driving a more politicised bureaucracy to implement change for short term gain and to satisfy either opinion polls or vested lobbyists.
This has lead to “initiatives” like tax cuts for those who don’t really need them, “means tests” that cut in at $160,000, subsidies for favoured industries, mining “super taxes” that probably won’t collect a cent, etc, etc.
On the other hand, there will always be a few Gina’s in whatever type of society you have, either through inheritance, luck, hard work, corruption or force. I think the issue is how the other 99% are doing, and especially the bottom 10% or so. And that shouldn’t be measured in terms of whether they have everything they want, but more in terms of everything they need. Now we just have to agree on what they “need”!
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