tip off
12

What’s really putting the brakes on millennial’s driving?

The reasons for the drop in driving by 20-29 year olds seem self-evident to many. So too are the appropriate policy responses. But as is so often the case, it’s not that simple

How Sydneysiders travel, by age and region (source: Sydney Morning Herald)

The Sydney Morning Herald published a neat graphic in the car section on the weekend illustrating how Sydneysiders aged 21-30 years are turning away from driving and increasing their use of public transport (Gen Y makes a sharp turn away from driving). (1)

Ten years ago, people aged 21 to 30 in Sydney drove themselves on about 53 per cent of all trips on an average weekday. That share fell almost eight percentage points to 45.5 per cent in 2011-12.

In a related article, the paper’s Transport Reporter, Jacob Saulwick, reckons the data proves Prime Minister Tony Abbott should reverse his decision to withhold Commonwealth funding from urban public transport.

I’ve discussed the fall in car use by Gen Y a number of times before (e.g. here, here and here). There’s a long list of possible explanations (see Why are Australians driving less than they used to?) but not much agreement on what the key ones are.

The Herald reports that experts say the change is most likely due to the high cost of car ownership and operation, as well as to “the widespread use of mobile devices, which are more attractive on public transport”.

While the cost of owning and operating cars is likely to be in there somewhere (but the importance of smart phones is trivial), as usual it’s a much more complex phenomenon.

One of the better studies I’ve seen compares the trend in travel behaviour of young people in six industrialised countries over the last 20 years: Germany, France, Great Britain, Japan, Norway and the USA. It was done by a team led by Tobias Kuhnimhof from the Institute for Mobility Research in Munich (and includes prominent cycling researcher, Ralph Buehler).

I reviewed a pre-publication version of the paper last year (Are millennials driving less?) and it’s worth recalling the key findings in the light of the new data for Sydney presented by the Herald. The researchers say that since the turn of the millennium:

Access to cars, measured in terms of drivers’ licences and household car ownership, has decreased in most study countries—especially for young men.

Average daily car travel distance has decreased in most study countries, again especially for young men. Although not in all countries – young men now drive more in Norway.

Kilometres driven by millennial women also fell. However the fall was generally smaller than that for young men and wasn’t observed in all countries. In particular, there was barely any change in France and Japan.

One consequence is that American and German women of this generation now drive as much as their male counterparts. This is a turnaround from the nineties when young men in those countries drove noticeably more.

In France, Japan, and most significantly in the USA, the decrease in car travel has led to a reduction in total everyday travel (i.e. all modes) by young travellers.

In Great Britain, the decline in car travel by millennials was partly, and in Germany fully, compensated by an increased use of alternative modes of transport. However in France, Japan and (especially) the US, this was not the case – the decline in driving resulted in a fall in total travel.

Kuhnimhof et al think broad social changes are the primary explanation for the travel trends they identify. They cite factors like more young adults in tertiary education, lower workforce participation, and starting families at a later age, as contributing to “a larger share of young people being in a life situation in which they are less prone to car ownership or use.”

Contrary to the advice tendered to the Herald, they think smart phones have negligible impact on the changes. I think that should be self-evident and have said so before (Is the iPhone why Gen Y love public transport?).

They also found that better public transport was an important explanation for the decline in driving in only two countries, Germany and the UK. It is especially important in Germany though, where the shift to other modes explains around a third of the decrease in car travel between 1998 and 2008 (they say the other two thirds is attributable to structural factors).

Dr David King from Columbia University’s Transportation Research Centre argues that the decline in driving and auto ownership in the US is unlikely to be related significantly to changes in land use or the built environment.

A decline in the utility of driving helps explain why we aren’t seeing the reduction in miles (km) travelled show up elsewhere. The trips not taken have not been replaced. They are mostly just forgone. While it is true that transit trips have increased while driving has declined, the increase in transit usage doesn’t come close to matching the reduction in auto travel.

Urban policy-makers and managers need to be confident they really understand the underlying forces driving the reduction in driving in their cities. They need to be wary of jumping to simple conclusions.

_________________________________________________

  1. Take care: not all the scales on the SMH’s graphic are the same (but at least they all show the zero point). Perhaps this isn’t the best graphic method to use? Or perhaps some things are too complex to present graphically and be confident readers won’t misunderstand the meaning?
12

Please login below to comment, OR simply register here :



  • 1
    Jacob HSR
    Posted September 19, 2013 at 12:13 am | Permalink

    Sydney has built many miles of Busway in the last 10 years. That would have something to do with it surely.

  • 2
    Alan Davies
    Posted September 19, 2013 at 7:51 am | Permalink

    Jacob HSR #1:

    I’d expect it to be an important factor explaining the increase in public transport use, but not so much the decrease in driving.

  • 3
    Tom the first and best
    Posted September 19, 2013 at 11:53 am | Permalink

    I think that tougher licence requirements, to increase road safety, have had an impact. Minimum driving hours especially (I do not know what has been done in other jurisdictions, this is probably worth some academic study).

  • 4
    Karl
    Posted September 19, 2013 at 12:50 pm | Permalink

    As someone falling into this age category, I don’t own a car because it is simply a hassle and expense that I am able to do without. I live within cycling distance to work, shops, services and friends (I chose to live in this area). I don’t have kids or pets, and even if I did I would still not use a car very often other than for longer distance trips. Most of my friends in the same age bracket are much the same. A few own a car but barely use it or share it with others. Most just cycle and use public transport as needed as we all made conscious choices to live close to places of study, work etc so we wouldn’t have to rely on a car for transport.

  • 5
    Andoman
    Posted September 19, 2013 at 2:08 pm | Permalink

    I choose not to own/drive a car because I live in the Inner West and it’s such a hassle to find a car spot. Plus it saves quite a bit of money not having a car.

  • 6
    Xoanon
    Posted September 19, 2013 at 3:10 pm | Permalink

    The wife and I haven’t owned a car since we moved to Melbourne in 1998. We started off without one, thinking “Let’s save some money for a bit,” and because we lived in the inner city soon realised we could do without a car altogether.

    I wouldn’t be so quick to write off the smartphone factor, though I agree it would be incidental at best. Having such a device does make commuting, even on crowded vehicles, far more pleasant and endurable – thus negating the urge to switch to private transport for some, even if only subconsciously.

  • 7
    Richard Butcher
    Posted September 19, 2013 at 7:19 pm | Permalink

    I put it down to the cost of insurance!
    http://m.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/09/the-dubious-future-of-the-american-car-business-in-14-charts/279422/

  • 8
    Socrates
    Posted September 20, 2013 at 8:07 am | Permalink

    I think it is a mistake to put this down to cost factors. There was a paper on this at the recent AITPM conference in Perth. One point made was that overall the cost of car travel in Australia had gone up more slowly than inflation in Australia in the past decade. Fuel cost rises had been more than offset by large falls in car prices and rising incomes. PT fars had increased faster than inflation.

    So, regardless of the debate about other factors, in Australia at least, cost does not explain this.

  • 9
    Posted September 21, 2013 at 2:38 pm | Permalink

    I don’t think anyone’s come up with a convincing reason as to why cars aren’t the status symbol and “assumed-to-be-needed” possession now that they were a generation ago, but surely to a certain extent it’s growing global awareness that cars do come with significant costs to the environment and our health, and don’t make as much sense in dense urban environments, which for one reason or another have been attracting the younger generation as a lifestyle choice to a greater degree than has been true in last the 20-30 years (certainly in Melbourne anyway – but I gather it’s something of a global trend for one reason or another). I’d almost say we’re now at a point where the only reason car ownership is still as high as it is can be put largely down to government focus on providing infrastructure for motorists over and above alternative modes of transport for the last few generations (largely as a result of the demands of the public over that time period, though of course a well-funded road lobby has something to answer for – unfortunately public transport/walking/bicycling etc. will never present the profit-making opportunities that everyone driving in privately-owned vehicles does).

  • 10
    Dudley Horscroft
    Posted September 22, 2013 at 9:20 pm | Permalink

    Yet is the decrease more in large cities and small in the country areas like Tweed Heads? Went to the Doctor and he gave me a letter for a Specialist. Took it to the hospital, absolutely impossible to find a parking space, so went home and posted it!

    Memo – when I go in for the procedure, take a taxi!

  • 11
    Alexddeg
    Posted October 7, 2013 at 12:20 pm | Permalink

    I moved to Sydney from Melbourne in my mid-twenties and without the need to visit family in the four-corners of the outer-burbs I have happily lived without a car and think I could probably continue to do so when I have a kid/s. I don’t think cars are the status symbol they once were.

  • 12
    Alan Davies
    Posted November 7, 2013 at 12:03 am | Permalink

    In a new article posted today, David Levinson reinforces the important point made above by David King:

    Importantly, travel by other modes has not made up for the large drop in car use. While transit, e.g., is up nationally due to the large investments in rail lines, that 20% increase in transit use in the decade is a little more than 1% of the 20% drop in passenger miles by motor vehicles.

Please login below to comment, OR simply register here :



Womens Agenda

loading...

Smart Company

loading...

StartupSmart

loading...

Property Observer

loading...