Obama’s lead declined slightly again in the national polls and is now between six and seven percentage points, probably closer to seven then six.
But national polls do not reveal the way the race is going in the only place it matters i.e. the contest for the 538 electoral college votes which will determine the outcome. Professor Rod Tiffen of the University of Sydney did a good article on how all this works, and the outcomes in presidential elections, on Australian Policy Online recently.
A key point is that a small win on the national popular vote often translates into a large margin in electoral college votes.
Unless the polls are wildly wrong, and/or there is a dramatic swing to McCain in the last days of the campaign, the Democrats should have these states ‘in the bag’. They are California (55), New York (31), Washington (11), Oregon (7), Michigan (17), Pennsylvania (21), Minnesota (10), Iowa (7), Illinois (21), Vermont (3), Maine (4), Rhode Island (4), Connecticut (7), New Jersey (15), Maryland (10), District of Columbia (3), Delaware (3), Massachusetts (12), Wisconsin (10), and Hawaii (4). Total = 255
That is, Obama has a lead of 10% or more in states that add up to just 15 electoral college votes short of winning the presidency.
As a point of context, at this stage in 2004 John Kerry was only ahead by more than 10% in states that added up to 88 electoral college votes: Illinois, New York, Maine, Vermont, Massachusetts, Delaware, Maryland and D.C.
That is why the McCain camp is campaigning so feverishly in Pennsylvania at the moment and hoping for a miracle, currently Obama leads by about 11% in Pennsylvania. Unless, McCain can pull a big state off Obama’s ‘in the bag’ list he is doomed.
Obama has many pathways open for getting those extra 15 votes.
Obama is leading by less than 10% in Nevada (5), Colorado (9), New Mexico (5), North Dakota (3), Missouri (11), Ohio (20), New Hampshire (4), Virginia (13), North Carolina (15), and Florida (27). Total = 112
In addition, McCain is only slightly ahead (less than 5%) in Montana (3), Indiana (11), and Georgia (15). Total = 29.
Another problem for McCain is that many votes are already in, so that the impact of any late swing back will be muted. For instance,
a SurveyUSA poll of Ohio: 22% of the likely electorate has already voted, favoring Obama by a 56%-39% margin, and the two candidates are tied among the remaining 78%.
One Comment