Trevor Cook writes that the Coalition took Kevin Rudd too lightly while vastly overplaying its own hand.

"One
reason Howard probably didn’t dump this major political problem
[WorkChoices] is the Liberal myth that Malcolm Fraser wasted his senate
majority. Well, Howard has used his majority to ruin his government…"
More…

On 30 October, half a campaign ago, I predicted a Ruddslide in a piece I wrote for this site. Nothing has happened to change my mind and the last week has confirmed that the swing is definitely on.

If today’s Galaxy poll is right it will be a close election, if the Fairfax Nielsen poll is right the ALP will win with a bigger vote than Malcolm Fraser got in December 1975. Galaxy has the ALP at 52 per cent of the two party preferred vote; Nielsen has labor at 57 percent.

The long-term poll average, at around 54 or 55 per cent, is probably a more reliable guide. With just minor variations, the polls have been consistent for many months.

THE Liberal Party has been hugely embarrassed over a campaign team caught delivering fake letters linking Labor with the Bali bombers.

The grubby night-time operation in St Marys, in the seat of Lindsay, was busted by a squad of ALP sleuths who conducted a stake-out.

An absolute disgrace. A cynical manipulation of baseless fears. The Liberal Party in NSW is a bloody mess and it ought to be disbanded and re-built from the ground-up.

THE Liberal Party has been hugely embarrassed over a campaign team caught delivering fake letters linking Labor with the Bali bombers.

The grubby night-time operation in St Marys, in the seat of Lindsay, was busted by a squad of ALP sleuths who conducted a stake-out.

An absolute disgrace. A cynical manipulation of baseless fears. The Liberal Party in NSW is a bloody mess and it ought to be disbanded and re-built from the ground-up.

it is worth noting that in the lead up to the 2007 election most commentators in the on-line psephological community are predicting a change of government with a sizable swing to Labor. The most conservative commentator has Labor winning eight more seats than the needed 16. At the other end of the spectrum, Geoff Lambert believes Labor will more than double the necessary 16 seat gain.

Trevor Cook has been in London and draws some unflattering parallels
between new UK Prime Minister Gordon Brown and Peter Costello.
"Lesser
stars in the political firmament often dismiss highly successful
players (like Tony Blair, Bill Clinton, and, even, John Howard)…When
he finally moved to Number 10, Brown had an advertising company come up
with a slogan that was designed presumably to emphasise that there was
nothing slick or clever about their man, and the days of spin were
finally over. The slogan – "Not flash, just Gordon" – has turned out to
be a prophecy as the Brown Government stumbles from one bizarre crisis
to the next" More…

Trevor Cook argues that a lazy legacy of spin, underinvestment and
middle-class welfare leaves a tough job for whichever side wins.

"Both
sides of federal politics know, unequivocally know, that the federal
budget surplus should be much bigger to take pressure off interest
rates and to prevent the economy overheating and then falling into
recession. John Howard has been particularly culpable. He spent
billions buying re-election in 2004 and he, and his uninspired
Treasurer Peter Costello, have been pumping a raging economy with tax
cuts ever since." More…

Mr Howard announced a new spending measure on YouTube this morning – promising $500,000 to help orangutans in Indonesia.

Is there no stunt too silly for this desperate PM.