November 13, 2008 – 8:42 am
Most people, including many in the Liberal Party, think that Barry O’Farrell and the Opposition parties in NSW should be at least twenty points ahead in the polls given just how bad Nathan Rees and the NSW ALP are travelling.
Make no mistake the Rees Government daily plumbs new depths. Tuesday’s mini-budget got the worst public [...]
By Trevor Cook
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Posted in NSW politics
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Also tagged ALP, elections, Jeff Kennett, Joe Hockey, John Brogden, Ken Henry, Liberals, Mike Baird, Nationals, NSW, O'Farrell, Rees, Rudd
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November 4, 2008 – 3:58 pm
Realclearpolitics managed to add another 53 polls to its site on Monday (and over 150 in the last four days); there is no lack of data! A dozen national polls with Obama ranging from 5 points up to a massive eleven. There are five Florida polls and this key state is on a knife edge [...]
November 4, 2008 – 7:01 am
Polls in the final day or two seem to be showing a late swing to Obama, not McCain as anticipated by many pundits. According to Fivethirtyeight, the best of these (NBC/WSJ) is good news for the Democrats:
the one that ought to give Democrats the most reassurance is the new poll out from NBC and [...]
November 3, 2008 – 10:49 am
Back in late June, I posted about a dinner party disagreement I had:
At dinner on Saturday night a Canberra political lobbyist told me that Obama can’t win because he just won’t win enough states to get there, a view I strongly disagreed with, so earlier this week I did up a state-of-play using the excellent [...]
November 2, 2008 – 6:12 pm
It’s so near. It being the weekend, I guess, the daily release of polls slowed to a mere two dozen on Saturday. No real surprises, if anything the margin has widened again with Obama up by 6.8 on the realclearpolitics average, 6.4% on pollster.com, 5.6% on FiveThirtyEight, Daily Kos 13%, and Talking Points Memo, [...]
November 1, 2008 – 4:09 pm
Less than four days until the first polls close and everything looks on track for an Obama victory. Obama’s national lead seems stable around six points: 538 says 5.8%, Pollster says 6.0%. Realclearpolitics says 6.5%.
Realclearpolitics has 40 new state and national polls following on from 44 polls yesterday. Today’s national polls range from a 4 [...]
November 1, 2008 – 3:33 am
Just four days to go. Obama’s vote is holding up around 50 to 51 per cent, while McCain’s vote has risen to the 45 to 47 per cent band. McCain’s vote has risen but Obama’s has not fallen. Obama continues to hold a heavy lead in electoral college votes.
In Arizona (10 electoral college votes), [...]
October 31, 2008 – 3:11 pm
It’s late evening Thursday on the US east coast and the polls have been coming thick and fast today. Realclearpolitics has a list off 44 polls released on Thursday in the USA.
None of the polls represents any gains for McCain in battleground states. Overall, the poll situation seems to have stablised a little after several [...]
October 30, 2008 – 3:03 pm
I did a wrap-up piece for New Matilda looking at polls, turnouts and those all-important electoral college votes.
October 29, 2008 – 9:19 am
Obama’s lead declined slightly again in the national polls and is now between six and seven percentage points, probably closer to seven then six.
But national polls do not reveal the way the race is going in the only place it matters i.e. the contest for the 538 electoral college votes which will determine the outcome. [...]
