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electorates

Mar 18, 2009

Cards on the table

Seat-by-seat election prediction is a mug's game I have been playing for just over five years – thus far without serious embarrassment, but there's a first time for everything. Thi

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Seat-by-seat election prediction is a mug’s game I have been playing for just over five years – thus far without serious embarrassment, but there’s a first time for everything. This election poses a particularly difficult challenge for a number of reasons. Firstly, there is clearly a big swing on, which always makes the terrain harder to read than at status quo elections. Secondly, there has been no localised opinion polling of any kind, which is most unfortunate in a state as regionalised as Queensland. Thirdly, internal party research seems to have been kept under wraps by the major parties, resulting in a limited amount of intelligence reaching us via the media.

Against this it must be conceded that the published polling has given a remarkably consistent view of the big picture. Of the three Galaxy and one Newspoll surveys conducted during the campaign, all but one has shown the Liberal National Party with a 51-49 two-party lead, and the exception had it at 50-50. The LNP’s primary vote has been at either 43 or 44 per cent, with Labor’s ranging between 40 and 42. In contrast to the Western Australian election, and in spite of occasional expressions of excitement about Ronan Lee’s chances in Indooroopilly, there has been no indication that the Greens will significantly improve on their 8.0 per cent at the last election. The elusive “others” likewise remain in the 7 to 8 per cent range, although many local surprises could lurk within that figure.

My broad methodology has involved determining the regions where especially big swings might be expected and balancing them out with smaller ones elsewhere. Brisbane and the Gold Coast, which collectively account for about 50 of the 89 seats (depending on where you draw the boundaries), are most ripe for correction if the 2006 results are compared with both the 2007 federal election and the state historical norm. Conversely, the 2006 backlash against Labor on the Sunshine Coast over water issues suggests the correction there has already occurred. The state’s mostly highly conservative interior did not move to Labor as dramatically as the coastal areas in the first place, and was largely back on the Coalition bandwagon by 2004. The same is true to a lesser extent of the Central Queensland coast, where the Jayant Patel furore cost Labor Bundaberg for the first time in 2006. It was a different story further north, where Labor consolidated its hold on the Cairns and Townsville seats with substantial swings.

As such, nothing in Brisbane with a margin of less than 10 per cent can be regarded as bolted down for Labor. There have even been suggestions Labor might be in trouble in Everton (margin of 10.6 per cent), where two factors are operating against them: the retirement of sitting member Rod Welford, and the importance of the Royal Children’s Hospital issue to northern Brisbane. The latter factor suggests Brisbane should be divided into north and south for purposes of picking which marginals are likely to fall. Labor is thus tipped to retain Redlands, which has a 6.8 per cent margin that wouldn’t have been deemed sufficient at the other end of town. The gains tipped for the LNP in Brisbane are Aspley, Redcliffe, Clayfield, Chatsworth, Cleveland, Pumicestone and Springwood. I am not persuaded that Ronan Lee can pull a rabbit out of the hat in Indooroopilly, so that’s on the list of LNP gains as well. Further successes in Brisbane are not by any means out of the question, but that’s all I’m going with.

The Gold Coast is a challenge all of its own, as only those privy to internal polling can say what damage the LNP has done (if any) by jettisoning the Carrara Stadium to emphasise its prioritisation of health. Mudgeeraba (2.7 per cent) and Gaven (3.2 per cent) are surely gone for all money, but there’s a glut of further seats in the sweet spot where the regional swing can be expected to kick in: Broadwater (6.6 per cent), Southport (8.0 per cent), Coomera (8.3 per cent) and Burleigh (8.8 per cent). The only one I’m giving the LNP is Coomera, which as a new seat is not defended by a sitting member. It’s also not entirely of the Gold Coast, comprising a northern end around Eagleby in Logan City along with Helensvale in the Gold Coast’s northern outskirts. An unpredictable variable throughout the Gold Coast is the pro-daylight saving party DS4SEQ, which some suggest could poll near double figures. If enough of that comes from soft Labor supporters who don’t feel inclined to pass on preferences, retreat could turn to rout.

Further north, the LNP should have no trouble accounting for the 2.1 per cent margin in Hervey Bay. A trio of central coast seats can likewise be written off for Labor, only one of which – Whitsunday (0.4 per cent) – can properly be said to be a Labor seat. Burdekin (0.9 per cent) and Mirani (1.2 per cent) have been made notionally Labor by the redistribution, but their sitting Nationals/LNP members are unlikely to be troubled. Also in this region is Keppel (8.1 per cent), where I am tipping Labor to hold. I’m going out on a limb and giving the LNP Townsville (9.4 per cent) due to the retirement of sitting member Mike Reynolds and local disquiet over the preselection of Mandy Johnstone, who got the nod over long-serving former mayor Tony Mooney. Cairns has three Labor seats that could all change hands in the right circumstances: Cairns itself (8.0 per cent), Barron River (4.8 per cent) and Mulgrave (9.8 per cent). Mulgrave could well go for the same reason as Townsville, with sitting member Warren Pitt making way for his son Curtis. However, the only one I’ve been game enough to pick for the LNP is Barron River.

There are a number of other wild cards in the deck. Most famously there is Beaudesert, which has not only Pauline Hanson but also a popular local independent in Keith Gee, and a wet-behind-the-ears LNP candidate replacing long-serving retiree Kev Lingard. It has been suggested that vote-splitting between the contenders might give Labor’s Brett McCreadie an outside chance. Labor has been making a concerted effort to win Gladstone from independent Liz Cunningham, presumably on the basis that Labor voters who indulgently supported her in previous elections will be return to the fold now the government is endangered (remembering that it was Cunningham’s vote that tipped the Goss government from office in 1996). I have no idea whether this is hope or desperation, but as Cunningham’s vote has never fallen below the high 40s, backing her seems the safer option. It might also be that a general rise in support for the LNP will help John Bjelke-Petersen succeeded in ousting independent Dolly Pratt in Nanango on his second attempt. The redistribution has set two sitting Nationals/LNP members, official candidate Ray Hopper and independent Stuart Copeland, against each other in Condamine. One suspects Copeland will be welcomed back to the party fold if he is successful. In both cases I have played it safe, going with Pratt and Hopper.

Those of you who have been paying attention will have noticed that I’ve tipped Labor to lose 17 seats – as many as they can afford to and no more. That would result in a very exciting parliament with Labor on 45 seats, the LNP on 40 and four independents, three representing highly conservative seats. However, it should be remembered that I also tipped a one-seat Labor majority at the Western Australian election, and we all know what happened there.

UPDATE: Thanks to Bird of Paradox for pointing out my failure to mention Dalrymple, where I am nervously tipping that the LNP’s Shane Knuth will defeat One Nation’s Rosa Lee Long. I should also mention Toowoomba North, where I acknowledge Labor is in grave danger. However, Kerry Shine’s strong performance in 2006 leads me to conclude he has enough of a personal vote to just hang on.

UPDATE 2: Ben Raue at The Tally Room has a go. At least as likely to be on the money as me. I gather that apart from a few minor differences here and there, our main point of departure is that he tips the LNP will clean up on the Gold Coast.

43 comments

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43 thoughts on “Cards on the table

  1. Susan

    So has anyone had the great joy of seeing Dear Leader drive through their own electorate on her final magical mystery tour of 80 electorates in 80 hours. Can any comunist party member here give me a tip as to which street corner I should stand on to get a glimpse as Dear Leader’s motorcade zooms by?

  2. J-D

    dovif, I think you’re still missing the point. You say:

    When the election tide is going 1 way, it is unlikely that a seat will go in the oposit direction.

    That’s true in one way, in the sense that the bigger the average swing in one direction, the smaller (probably) will be the number of seats that move in the opposite direction. But why is it true?

    This is fairly simple maths. If the seat-by-seat swings are spread out over a range from average swing plus X percentage points to average swing minus X percentage points, and if the average swing is nought or close to it, then about half the seats will swing one way and about half the other. On the other hand, if the seat-by-seat swings are spread out over exactly the same range, but the average swing is close to X%, then all the seats with an above-average swing will swing in one direction [I]and[/I] nearly all of the seats with a below-average swing will swing in that direction (but by less than X%), with only a few swinging the other way.

    My point is that the historical record suggests that there will nearly always be those few. It is unlikely that there will be many of them, but it is also unlikely that there will be none at all.

    Look at your own example:

    We can probably get some idea on how many seat will go against the grain by looking at the Federal election 5.8% swing

    The seats that swung to the Liberals were Calare (vs Ind), Cowen, Franklin, Swan, Wentworth (vs Ind).

    Of 148 seats only 3 swung against the ALP and toward the Liberal/National. The swings were Cowen (new ALP member 2.5%) Swan (.2%) Franklin (new ALP member 3.2%)

    In your example, few seats swung against Labor and towards the Coalition: few, but not none.

    Of course you’re right to go on and point out that there were specific local reasons why the swing is different in different seats, but that was true in all 150 seats, right across the range from the ones that swung against Labor to the ones that swung to Labor by the biggest above-average margins.

    You could say that it was just bad luck for Labor that two of the seats that swung (because of local factors) against it happened to be two seats (Cowan and Swan) where a small swing could deliver them to the Coalition. That’s not something that the mathematics makes particularly likely, it’s just something that the mathematics makes possible.

    What Labor needs to gain a seat or two in the face of a substantial average swing to the LNP is two things: (1)a few seat swings deviating substantially from the average; and (2) those results happening to fall (because of local factors) in seats where just a small swing in Labor’s favour translates to the gain of a seat. The historical statistics make (1) close to a certainty, but have nothing to say about (2). If you’re saying that (2) is not going to happen, because of the way the specific local factors work out, then I’ve got nothing to say about that. But if you are saying (as you originally seemed to be saying) that (1) isn’t going to happen, then you haven’t made your case. You started out by expressing disbelief that any seat would deviate from the average swing by 6 to 8 per cent. Look again at your own example of the 2007 Federal election. The biggest swing against Labor on your figures was in Franklin and deviated from the average swing by 9 per cent. If that could happen in 2007, it could happen in 2009. On the other hand, that extreme swing in Franklin happened somewhere that did the Coalition no good–Labor still won Franklin, and easily. But that brings us back to the difference between (1) and (2). The odds are high (point 1) that a few seats will deviate widely from the average swing in this election, but the historical odds alone don’t tell us (point 2) whether those few seats will be like Swan and Cowan or like Franklin. The thing is that your original comment on this looked as if you were arguing the toss on point 1, rather than point 2.

  3. steve

    Well another thing I’ve really noticed tonight is wall to wall TV advertising by the Nationals ahead of the black out at midnight tonight. I’m just getting the feeling everything is not well in that camp either.

  4. Mark Bahnisch

    steve, I reckon it’s a bit late for the election to change course. There might be a bit of extra mo one way or the other. I’m sure the LNP figure this, which is why the figures are being released so late. I suspect that the result’s more or less decided already. Unfortunately, I don’t think we have sufficient polling data to predict it safely.

  5. steve

    oops! National Party election promises

  6. steve

    All these predictions are of course subject to change should the usual Galaxy be produced at the last minute with its larger sample that it’s reputation will be staked on. Another Newspoll is also due I’d say which also could vary considerably from what we have seen so far.

    Don’t forget we still have the spectacle of Nicholls announcing the funding of National Party tomorrow which depending on what they choose to hide could change the whole course of the election itself.

  7. William Bowe

    Ben Raue at The Tally Room has a go. At least as likely to be on the money as me. I gather that apart from a few minor differences here and there, our main point of departure is that he tips the LNP will clean up on the Gold Coast.

  8. Susan

    dovif don’t the stats also show that the swing the LNP needs is also very huge and very unlikely, so a certain Labor win?

    You can all start celebrating now.

  9. dovif

    J-D looking at the last Qld election, only 1 seat changed hand with a swing more than 3.5% from the actual statewide swing

    That is Noosa, the swing was caused by Cate Malloy spliting the ALP vote

    It could happen, but it is unlikely

  10. dovif

    J-D

    the last election, there was hardly any swing and there seem to be a lot of seats that moved on local issues or because 1 side’s vote swing, I think no one expected a Labor loss and a National win.

    At the moment the opinion poll are showing the LNP’s Primary vote is going up from 37-43 or 44% ie a 7% gain. When the election tide is going 1 way, it is unlikely that a seat will go in the oposit direction. We can probably get some idea on how many seat will go against the grain by looking at the Federal election 5.8% swing

    The seats that swung to the Liberals were Calare (vs Ind), Cowen, Franklin, Swan, Wentworth (vs Ind).

    Of 148 seats only 3 swung against the ALP and toward the Liberal/National. The swings were Cowen (new ALP member 2.5%) Swan (.2%) Franklin (new ALP member 3.2%)

    The swing in Cowen and Franklin seem to have come from the lost of exiting member’s personal vote. Swan and Cowen was in WA, which also lost Kim Beasley’s supporter and WA has been a very strong state for the Liberal (see WA election)

    I think when a swing is going strongly toward one party, there will be very little swing to the other party. ALP will only win seats off the LNP if the following happens
    – Strong new candidate
    – Existing member quiting
    – Local issues
    – Small 2PP differential (Swan and Cowen had only a .7 and .2 margin)

    Most LNP marginal has at lease a 2% margin (except Glasshouse) Bundaburg is the only exception I see.

    The more likely scenario is because of OPV, swing are likely to be caused by candidate spliting Left (ALP/Green/Ind)/right (LNP/Ind) vote. The ALP might win Beaudaset if Pauline/Gee split the right side votw

  11. Jack Strocchi

    Early in March I predicted a “close, but not nail biting” LNP victory 2PP of 52%-48%. Dont know how that will translate into seats.

    The LNPs will continue to win state governments as both the electoral pendulum and economic cycle swing against incumbent ALP governments. Possible exception being VIC where Lefties are thick on the ground and Brumby got lots of cred for his Bushfire performance.

  12. J-D

    dovif, let’s look a bit more closely at the maths.

    Let’s say you have a hypothetical election where the average swing is 5%. I think we all know that doesn’t mean that every seat swings 5%. Some swing more, and that means that the average won’t come out to 5 unless some swing less. So there has to be a range from the seat that swings the most to the seat that swings the least. There will have to be one seat where the swing deviates farthest from the average. If the average swing is 5%, a seat that swings 2% is deviating from the average by 3 percentage points, while a seat that swings 15% is deviating from the average by 10 percentage points. Is it possible for the swing to deviate by 10 percentage points? Mathematically, yes. In fact, the deviation can be even greater. If the average swing is 5%, it’s mathematically possible for there to be a seat which swings 20 percent the other way, thus deviating from the average by 25 percentage points. Even larger deviations are mathematically possible.

    If the average swing to the LNP in this election is X%, then there will have to be one seat with the biggest swing to the LNP, which will also be the biggest deviation in that direction from the average swing. And there will also have to be one seat which has the biggest deviation from the average in the other direction. If that seat deviates by less than X%, it will have the smallest swing to the LNP, and if it deviates by more than X%, it will have the biggest swing to Labor. There is no reason why there shouldn’t be some seats that swing to Labor even if the average swing is to the LNP, even a big average swing. Most elections have some seats deviating far enough from the average swing that they actually swing the other way.

    Of course there’s nothing mathematical to say that the seats which deviate furthest in the favouring Labor direction from the average swing and thus have the biggest swings to Labor won’t be seats which Labor already holds. If Labor gets a swing in its favour only in seats which it already holds, then it won’t pick up any seats. If that’s your expectation I’ve got no view one way or the other. But if you’re saying that you don’t expect any seat to deviate from the average swing by as much as 8 percentage points, I think the historical record is against you.

  13. dovif

    the other thing about Indooropilly would be that, how many ALP type would have a No 2.

    Green voter, in my opinion would be more likely to preference, as their No 1 are less likely to win. Is the ALP as likely to preference

    J-D

    It could happen, so could a seat swinging twice the state average. I think unless there is a split in the conservative vote, it is must less likely to happen

    The LNP starts from a really low base of seats, the once they are holding are mainly (apart from Bundaberg local issue) seats that would normally be safe Liberal-National seats, I don’t think many if any will cross over

  14. J-D

    Damn! Messed up the tags. Sorry. The first paragraph is a quote from dovif and the rest is me.

  15. ted

    Bobbyte (no.24) – what does ‘ALP machine’ support mean?

    To me, it means extra resources for materials and people on the streets, combined with media opportunities with the leader to raise profile.

    Indooroopilly is clearly the Greens’ no.1 priority (as evidenced by preference deal) and friends in the electorate say they’ve had lots of material and seen lots of Ronan and Ronan paraphernalia on the street.

    In addition, Ronan has had a far greater run in the media than he could ever have dreamed with the backing of the ‘ALP machine’.

    High local and statewide profile + lots of Greens activity in Indooroopilly + disaffection with ALP and LNP + predominance of young voters and small ‘l’ liberals + solid local campaigning from Ronan = Ronan coming second and getting over the line with ALP preferences.

  16. J-D

    If the seat was held by the LNP, and the swing is to them by about 6-8%, I find it difficult to comprehend that a seat will go against the trend by 6-8% and go from LNP to Labor

    Why not?

    I think in most elections there are a few seats that deviate from the average swing by that much, or even more.

    For example, a quick look at the figures at the Psephos election archive suggests that instances at the 2006 Queensland election may have included Cleveland, Cook, Robina, and Thuringowa.

    So from first principles I would guess that there will be a few at this election too, although I have no idea which seats they will be.

  17. dovif

    ted

    since the LNP is getting their best 2PP vote and primary vote result for a long time, let just say the swing to the LNP is only 2% (opposed to 7% Qld wide)

    The LNP will have 45% of the vote, with Exhaustions, Rohan will need at least 35% primary and hope almost all ALP vote flows to him (ie the people he choosed not to represent)

    Good luck

  18. William Bowe

    [William – error in the second last paragraph – Dolly Pratt is the member for Nanango. This would be a very surprising pick up for the Nats. Gympie on the other hand could go to Roberts.]

    Yeah, meant Nanango sorry. I’ll be surprised if the LNP lose Gympie.

    [You gonna call Dalrymple, William?]

    Forgot to mention that one. I’m calling it for the LNP (if you look at my election guide entries, the prediction is shown at the bottom of each page). Unlike Paul Williams though, I won’t be amazed if Rosa Lee Long wins.

    [I’d have thought Kerry Shine’s electorate was lower hanging fruit for the LNP than either of those two, for instance.]

    You may be right, but the WA election impressed me about the importance of sitting members in times of flux. Perhaps it over-impressed me – we shall see.

    [William I’ve only got 15 ALP losses on my reading. Surely Glass House (not mentioned) is a certain ALP loss – the redistribution made it line ball on the 2006 results. What else have I missed?]

    I’m going off the redistributed margins, so I’m counting Mirani and Burdekin as existing Labor seats and Glass House as LNP.

  19. bobbyte

    Ted – Ronan used to have the support of the ALP machine and more importantly Young Labor – that’s gone now and with it his chance of getting anywhere near 30 per cent let alone 20

  20. ted

    Mark,

    The Green base is still high on a state-wide basis and Ronan will bring with him his local following. He hasn’t been running his local campaign as a Green, but the same orange ‘indepedent’. With Sarah Warner’s low likely recognition, it’s not unfeasible for Ronan to hit 30%, which with good preference flows from the third placed Labor, would put him front of Scott Emerson. There’s likely good preference swapping with Greens and Labor in inner-city Brisbane seats.

    Saturday will tell, but my bold prediction is hung parliament with Labor looking to Lee for support.

  21. bobbyte

    That was he won’t get enough votes – sorry my typing is bad – to be more specific he won’t get more than high teens in primary votes and will no preferences from the LNP and not enough from the ALP to get him anywhere near winning.

  22. bobbyte

    Ted – I can give you a reason why Ronan won’t win – he won’t enough votes!

  23. Mark Bahnisch

    ted, this has been thrashed to death.

    No one can take any comfort from the large number of under 25s living in the seat because many are UQ students who are either not enrolled because they’re college students and enrolled at their home residence or because they’re international students and not citizens.

    In addition, there is a large amount of churn in enrolment in the electorate because of the sort of rental/unit accomodation that’s so prominent which reduces any incumbency advantage – the reason why Lee got there in the first place.

    The demographics aren’t necessarily in anyone’s favour, and the base vote for The Greens at the last state election was the lowest of any comparable inner city seat.

  24. ted

    Susan, while it is politically convenient for the LNP to oppose Traveston, they support equally destructive dams all over Queensland, would turf tree clearing and wild river laws, and a whole load of other miscellaneous anti-environment stances.

    You or alexgirl offer no real response as to why Ronan Lee won’t win Indooroopilly, other than party ALP/LNP party lines.

    The polling statistics and demographics of Indooroopilly, plus disillusionment with both parties simply point to Ronan Lee retaining the seat. Sarah Warner is unknown and the inner-west liberals just can’t stomach the Borg. Welcome any reasons for contesting this other than a ‘hunch’.

  25. alexgirl

    Susan I won’t disguise my support for Sarah Warner. I hope she wins and will enjoy watching the LNP heads explode.

  26. Susan

    Alexgirl – yeah with Ronan Lee, instead of the Greens doing deals with Labor over environment issues (to keep greens members and voters happy) he has used a lot of that negotiating power to make sure he gets preferences, so he hasn’t negotiated over real green issues like Traviston but has negotiated over his own job. Traviston will bite Labor and the Greens. They both loose credibility.

  27. dovif

    http://www.catallaxyfiles.com/blog/?p=4386

    Maybe the Borg is right in where did the money go theory, there must be about $2 bil they can cut from the fat

  28. Oz

    alexgirl, if Ronan Lee wasn’t the candidate they’d have 0 chance as opposed to the slim chance they have now.

  29. alexgirl

    I actually think Ronan Lee has managed to arrest any green swing. He has stuffed it for us and the Greens and may end up handing this to the LNP.

  30. Oz

    #4

    I think the regionalisation of Queensland, as William puts it, is masking some boosted Green vote.

    If there isn’t any decent swing to the Greens, and the polls indicate there won’t be, it’ll be the first election in a while (WA, ACT, NT, various by-elections, NSW local government, Victorian local government) that there hasn’t been.

  31. alexgirl

    John- start putting outlying seats like Cairns on that list. It isn’t a uniform swing but there is one. I’ve seen the internal polling.

  32. MDMConnell

    Somewhere around 17 seats seems about right, but I’d be inclined to add another couple of seats outside of Brisbane- possibly another one of the Cairns/Townsville seats, maybe one or more of the Gold Coast seats- and give a couple of seats back to Labor in Brisbane.

    #10
    I think Glasshouse is a notional LNP seat so doesn’t count. And Burdekin and Mirani have been made notionally Labor despite having LNP MPs so they count as the other two ‘gains’.

  33. John

    1. Aspley
    2. Redcliffe
    3. Clayfield
    4. Chatsworth
    5. Cleveland
    6. Pumicestone
    7. Springwood
    8. Indooroopilly
    9. Mudgeeraba
    10. Gaven
    11. Coomera
    12. Hervey Bay
    13. Whitsunday
    14. Townsville
    15. Barron River

    William I’ve only got 15 ALP losses on my reading. Surely Glass House (not mentioned) is a certain ALP loss – the redistribution made it line ball on the 2006 results. What else have I missed?

  34. Bird of paradox

    And finally before I go to bed (what a weird time to do so), keep an eye on Warrego. Wally Gleeson (wasn’t he a character in ‘The Dish’?) damn near won there a few elections ago, and may pull it close again. I’ll be keeping my eye on it.

  35. NorthShorer

    Do any of the betting agencies have seat-by-seat odds like they do at a federal election? My inspection of the Centrebet site only has Beaudesert. There could be some value opportunities here if we consider William’s forecast – Coomera and Townsville spring to mind (because at first glance they seem unlikely LNP gains to me).

    I’d have thought Kerry Shine’s electorate was lower hanging fruit for the LNP than either of those two, for instance.

  36. Bird of paradox

    Gympie will be moderately interesting too, what with the Labor candidate being dis-endorsed for something I can’t imagine going down too well there (apart from the dam thing). I’ll tip the Nats to get over 50%, Labor’s vote’ll sink like a stone, Elisa Roberts oughta do about as well as she did after her antics last time, and the Greens to pick up any non-Nat protest vote about the dam (eg: Rae Gate’s 14% from 2006). Margin (wildish guess): Nats 20% vs Grn… the LNP’s other margin over the Greens. 😉

  37. Bird of paradox

    You gonna call Dalrymple, William?

  38. dovif

    Lucky Dave

    If the seat was held by the LNP, and the swing is to them by about 6-8%, I find it difficult to comprehend that a seat will go against the trend by 6-8% and go from LNP to Labor

    UNless the Conservative vote is split and there is no preference

  39. ted

    Will, I think you’re wrong about Indooroopilly.

    Ronan will win the seat. The Galaxy and Newspolls have smothered what is likely to be a surgent Greens in inner-city leafy Brisbane.

    If you look at polling data from state and federal elections there is a clear pattern of soft liberal supporters at federal election voting Greens at state election. Springborg is still highly unpalatable to this demographic. The electorate is also a university electorate with many young people (mean age for electorate is 29) – Ronan’s free transport for under 21’s and pro-environment stance is a solid pitch for this vote.

    These combined with Ronan’s strong local recognition and support (he has always run his campaigns as a quasi-independent, void of ALP logos) means the this could well be the seat denies the LNP Government. And the one the ALP will need to hang on … in other words, Ronan holding the balance of power aint out of the question.

  40. alexgirl

    Steve- yep. The loss of greens support is just what we needed.

  41. steve

    Gympie just got messier, the Australian is reporting a hissy fit by the Greens in that seat which can only mean more support for Elisa Roberts.

    http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25203314-5006786,00.html

  42. Luckydave

    William – error in the second last paragraph – Dolly Pratt is the member for Nanango. This would be a very surprising pick up for the Nats. Gympie on the other hand could go to Roberts. In both cases the seats remain in the tory column, it would just further remove the already remote prospect of a National party led LNP government having a majority.

    Summarised your analysis is Labor returned by a whisker.

    Coomera, which includes Eagleby would be absolute boilover if the Nats picked it up – as would Townsville. In the flux of this election Labor should pick up something. Bundaberg, Currumbin, Kawana and Caloundra are all vulnerable seats to watch, but the ALP will also lose some skin.

    In the absence of fresh polling data your scenario is possible, but on the current data verges on the worst case for the government.

    I am observing two trends, apart from the low key nature of the election. Daylight Saving 4SEQ will absorb considerable protest vote and the business community still has major reservations about an unstable change to the kaos of the Lib/Nat/Ind coalition. FUD is the ALP’s best asset.

    Watch the ALP rally the base, show strength and win the late breaking pro- incumbent/stability vote.

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