Scroll to top

Mark Bahnisch

Brisbane-based political analyst and Centre for Policy Development fellow

One for the poll sceptics

I won’t belabour the point any more that the polls were accurately measuring public opinion up to Thursday and that it shifted very quickly as undecideds focused right at the pointy end of the campaign, but this piece in the Sydney Morning Herald by Cosima Marriner and Mark Davis is spot on: Ms Bligh’s victory […]

Reviewing the media coverage

Over at Woolly Days, Derek Barry has posted a comprehensive wrap of the media coverage of the Queensland campaign, and says some kind things about our humble efforts on this blog. Barry links to a rather bizarre Courier-Mail editorial apparently posted at 11pm last night. Among other things, it contains some odd non sequiturs like […]

Whither the LNP?

There’s been a bit of discussion about the LNP’s prospects and its leadership across a number of threads, so it might not be a bad idea to start a dedicated thread. I think there are a few points to make here. First, the furious spin about how well the LNP did – combined with a […]

Welcome to the Anna heterogeneity! How Labor won

… I don’t like to use the term “hegemony” because my hope is that under Anna Bligh, the first woman elected as a Premier in Australia from a supposedly conservative state, we’ll finally collectively wake up to the fact that the Smart State is at the forefront of a diverse and exciting country that’s in […]

A curiosity: The only LNP seat swinging to the ALP

Looking over the ABC’s figures, it would appear that there is just one LNP seat and one of only two out of 89 electorates recording a swing to the ALP: Toowoomba South, held by veteran LNP MP, former Minister and former Nationals Leader Mike Horan.

Cards on the table II

I’m going to chance my hand on a seat by seat prediction. I tip Labor to win 45 seats, the LNP to win 40 and Independents to win 4. Details of the seats I think are worth watching are below the fold, categorised into likely changeovers (the basis for the numbers above), and possibles. They’re […]

Graham Young's new poll

Graham Young has written up his last lot of polling for the state campaign at What The People Want. Of interest is the number of respondents in his sample who’ve switched their vote during the campaign, the association between switching and particular issues, and the direction the vote’s headed: The purpose of any election campaign […]

Newspoll 49.9/50.1

Newspoll [pdf] is out [hat tip to Oz in comments on a previous thread]. The poll, taken on Wednesday and Thursday with a weighted sample of 1328, suggests a very evenly poised contest. Labor’s primary is 41.7 to the LNP’s 42.1. The Greens are on 7.4 and Others on 8.3. In the capital, Labor is […]

Revenge of the sub-editors

Andrew Bartlett’s review of the Queensland campaign at New Matilda is graced (?) by this tagline: Andrew Bartlett was sceptical that the Libs and Nats could even pull off a merger, let alone win an election as the newly formed Liberal National Party. It looks like he got it very wrong. I’m not sure I’d […]

Join William Bowe, Possum and Crikey political correspondent Bernard Keane from 2pm today for a lively chat about tomorrow's election, shaping up to be a corker.

Queensland Election Preview Liveblog: chat with Crikey

Join William Bowe, Possum and Crikey political correspondent Bernard Keane from 2pm today for a lively chat about tomorrow's election, shaping up to be a corker.