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Dec 22, 2016

Are these the 3.5 minutes that sealed MH370's fate?

Is this not the most plausible and closely argued scenario for the causes of the loss of MH370 yet advanced?

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Is this the sequence of events that meant MH370 was doomed?
Is this the sequence of events that meant MH370 was doomed?

Imagine, for a moment, the appalling scene that would have happened in the cockpit of MH370 on March 8, 2014, if a fierce brief fire broke out  with little warning in the Malaysia Airlines 777-200ER on its way from Kuala Lumpur to Beijing?

Australian researcher Michael Gilbert has made this the central feature of his hypothesis for the causes of a lethal sequence of events on MH370 for some months and has now published a peer reviewed and assisted version of those moments.

One of many unsettling, but compelling aspects of Michael Gilbert’s scenario for the loss of MH370, is that it dispenses with the media fabrications that poisoned early reporting of the Boeing 777-200ER’s disappearance nearly three years ago.

There was no climb to 45,000 feet to kill the passengers through oxygen starvation, nor a low level hedge hopping flight to avoid radar.

There was, Mr Gilbert argues, no intricately navigated flight right between the boundaries of the air traffic control zones of Malaysia and Vietnam when MH370 went ‘dark’ while over the Gulf of Thailand between both countries.

Instead, he argues, there was a windshield fire in a jet that on the records, was particularly prone to such a fault, which may have been force fed by a leaking supplementary oxygen system in the cockpit, for which there exists substantial if circumstantial indications.

Yet all of this remains a set of  possible events, all or some of which may not have happened.  That said, the signature of some of these events happening seems very evident in the information that informs all serious evidence based attempts to understand what caused the MH370 mystery.

Those early media inventions were shameful, and unfortunately, continued to this day to be relied upon in much of the popular commentary. The public debate was utterly hijacked and distorted by an unprofessional desire to wrap up ‘solutions’ to the greatest aviation mystery of all for popular consumption.

If the latest version of Michael Gilbert’s hypothesis is studied, it also comes with other strong points.  It reads like the intricate, and at times fiercely resisted, investigations that eventually nailed the loss of the first Comet jetliners, the defective cargo door latch that caused the United flight 811 accident near Honolulu in 1989 and the Boeing 737 rudder incidents that the jet maker tried to pin on the dead pilots and extreme weather scenarios in what was a campaign of disinformation.

Michael Gilbert has enlisted and acknowledged the help of some IG members in his latest and most closely argued hypothesis for the causes of a control crisis in the Malaysia Airlines 777 that vanished with 239 people on board.

There are three notable additions to the new version of this hypothesis that make it more accessible to the curious. There is the graphic representation of the three and a half minutes in which hell broke loose in the cockpit and in his words, ‘sealed the fate’ of those onboard.

It is shown at the top of this post, but needs to be read on a full sized display. There is a graphical summary of the importance of the left overhead circuit breaker panel, shown in low resolution below.

mh370-key-circuit-breaker-panel

And there is a simplified timeline of known and hypothesised events in both UTC and local Malaysia time.

This isn’t a paper for those who have made up their minds, or want it all in bumper sticker sized lumps. These things take time and patience, and an open mind, to be properly considered, criticised, and rejected or accepted.

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