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The Australian Electoral Commission has unveiled the proposed new boundaries for Tasmania. More to follow.

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Scotty
Guest
Well as a local of the eastern shore in Franklin i can say i don’t know many who have strong concerns about the shape of franklins borders. Maybe the odd jealous swipe at Kingston for a perceived unfair treatment. Though i will concede that we may have more in common with the area around Sorell than The Huon valley. This divide may become problematic in future if these areas continue to grow as quickly as they have. On the same note i would worry if the status quo was changed then it might give CFMEU Labor even more influence within… Read more »
Kevin Bonham
Guest
Franklin is pretty bizarre; there is really no community of interest between the Huon/Channel area and the eastern shore; perhaps the South Arm area has characters intermediate between them to make some kind of continuum out of it but that’s about it. However, it’s really hard to find a better solution. If you put the Huon/Channel in Lyons you end up with the Huon/Channel area as an effectively disjunct arm of Lyons – even if it isn’t spatially disjunct, it may as well be since it is only connected to the rest of the electorate by obscure dirt roads. If… Read more »
Antony Green
Guest

Pseph, the arrangement with Franklin has been in existence since 1903. I suspect that if the locals had a concern about Franklin’s fragmented state, we would have heard about it by now.

David Walsh
Guest

J-D – Give it a rest. This is beyond tedious.

Pseph – Franklin is contiguous through the D’Entrecasteaux Channel.

Pseph
Guest

Err, Franklin.. without the g

Pseph
Guest

I’m quite surprised that Frankling still remains a fragmented seat… no requirement for contiguity, which is interesting. Not sure what the community of interest is between the Huon Valley and Eastern suburbs of Hobart either… anyway, that’s my two cents.

J-D
Guest

Adam, are you asking what the point of the guidelines is in theory, or what the point of them is in practice? If you mean ‘in theory’, then I don’t know the answer. The practical answer, though, is empirically clear. The guidelines are used to provide justification for dismissing public suggestions which the commissioners don’t want to accept and which also conflict with the guidelines. When the commissioners themselves want to do something which conflicts with the guidelines, they simply don’t refer to them.

Adam
Guest

What’s the point in guidelines if they’re to be ignored? I agree the Commissioners are not *required* to preserve federation seat names, or they wouldn’t have been able to abolish Gwydir. But the point of guidlelines is to guide people. The Commissioners are supposed to be guided not to abolish federation seat names.

Kevin Bonham
Guest

typo – “Labor” for “Lanor” in last para

Kevin Bonham
Guest
I’ve noticed some amount of jumping the gun in the media about what are at this stage still only draft changes. It is worth bearing in mind, for example, that the Tasmanian boundary changes to Legislative Council divisions ended up being quite significantly different in some cases following the public comment period on the proposal. I don’t know how often changes in response to public comment on the draft occur at federal level however. Thanks to Antony for the nice work on the state swings (saved me some effort!). Kim Booth’s current margin over Labor in Bass is 0.224% of… Read more »
Shriking pipe
Guest

Regarding the Federation Seat Names

A good example of this would be the merger of Wakefield and Bonython in SA in 2004

There were more electors from Bonython in the new seat but the Committee went with Wakefield – a Federation seat (or 1903 seat in SA’s case)

J-D
Guest

Adam in Canberra Says:
August 23rd, 2008 at 11:34 am

… the commissioners are supposed to preserve federation seat names if possible. …

No they aren’t.

http://aec.gov.au/Electorates/Electoral_DPM/Guideline.htm

It should be noted that neither Redistribution Committees nor augmented Electoral Commissions are in any way bound by the guidelines

Couldn’t be clearer, could it?

David Walsh
Guest

I guess my point was that the Mersey hospital is still a potential pork-barrel target for the voters of Braddon. Albeit a slightly reduced one.

But I take your point about the north-west having a larger community of interest than can fit in one electorate.

Antony Green
Guest
David, I think your extrapolation from my joke about LaTrobe hospital to a community interest argument about the boundary between Lyons and Braddon is funnier than the original joke. I note West Coast Council is thoroughly happy to have been transferred back into Braddon, but something has to come out if that happens. LaTrobe Council has only been in Braddon since 2001 and is the obvious candidate to come out. I presume the residents of Braddon will just go back to having the community of interest with LaTrobe hospital that they used to have before 2001. I’m not aware they… Read more »
Adam in Canberra
Guest
Braddon has now resumed its historic boundaries – the old seat of Darwin/Braddon always included the West Coast (which used to be called “the Gibraltar of Labour”), which was how King O’Malley used to win it. I agree that a seat named for Inglis Clark would be good, but Denison has existed since 1903 and the commissioners are supposed to preserve federation seat names if possible. (Although you wouldn’t know it they way they quite unnecessarily abolished Gwydir.) The only Tas seat names which don’t date from 1903 are Braddon and Lyons. Tasmanians will just have to breed faster until… Read more »
David Walsh
Guest

I hate when I spot errors only after I have posted.

CORRECTION:

‘Moving Bridgewater from Lyons into Franklin…’

should read

‘Moving Bridgewater from Franklin into Lyons…’

David Walsh
Guest
There are more changes than I expected here. With all the old electorates except Franklin within tolerance, my expectation was that a southward expansion of Denison might be the only change. They have made precisely that change, so a big tick there. The modest expansion of Bass also makes plenty of sense. The other changes I find less convincing. Moving Bridgewater from Lyons into Franklin may make sense in numbers terms, in that it gets both divisions closer to parity. But it’s not strictly necessary according to the figures, and it can’t be a good thing to have more of… Read more »
Antony Green
Guest

Shane, I’ve already changed the Lyons figure. That’s a number of transcription errors I’ve made using the blogging software provided to me. It unfortunately won’t let me cut and paste out of Word or Excel.

Antony Green
Guest

Ok ok. It actually wasn’t a calculation problem at all. I typed the wrong original margin for Stirling into the blog. Now fixed.

rod
Guest

Sorry Shane

I had to post it after seeing Antony’s comment.

“I’ll check Stirling after I’ve done the WA Election, the NSW Local Government elections and the two Federal by-elections.”

shane easson
Guest
Erm, re Stirling I wrote on Antony Green’s blog re WA redistribution that with Stirling he’d made a simple mistake. In 2007 the LIb 2pp was 51.3% in that seat. The Commissioners proposed boundary changes did have the effect of weakening the seat for the Liberals. But in his blog Antony describes Stirling as original margin of 0.9% and new Lib margin of 1.1%. That’s clearly a simple mistake. Antony chose not to print my comment on his blog. Back to Tassie. In Lyons (at the State election in 2006) level, the ALP primary vote was 51.9% and not 47.2%… Read more »
rod
Guest

“If no one’s noticed, I’ve also re-calculated all the state figures on my blog page,”

Yes, but have you done Stirling.

Antony Green
Guest

If no one’s noticed, I’ve also re-calculated all the state figures on my blog page, following on from the Federal re-caluclations.
http://blogs.abc.net.au/antonygreen/2008/08/draft-new-bound.html#more

Ben Raue
Guest

Oooh.

Pseph
Guest

I think Labor should be quite chuffed with this redistribution. It puts a buffer on Braddon whilst making minimal impact on the other, safer seats. Then again, no
redistribution was really ever going to make a seat easier to clinch for the Liberals.

As for State impact, Greens might be the only ones worried as it shaves off their margin in Bass only to give the excess to death zone Braddon.

Antony Green
Guest

Wait and see.

Ben Raue
Guest

What are you doing for the NSW LG elections, Antony?

shane easson
Guest

ok. You win!!

Antony Green
Guest

I’ve re-checked Braddon and I’ve now got it at 2.7%.

I’ll check Stirling after I’ve done the WA Election, the NSW Local Government elections and the two Federal by-elections.

shane easson
Guest

I just saw antony green’s blog .He said Braddon is 51.6% >having now rechecked my numbers he’s right. Its 51.6 not 51.7 as i wrote above.
Antony, it’s time for you to recheck your Stirling. Best to start out with 51.3% which was the lib 2PP in 2007.

Antony Green
Guest

http://blogs.abc.net.au/antonygreen/2008/08/draft-new-bound.html#more
Same figures as Shane
And WA Legislative Council calculators are about to be published

shane easson
Guest
DIVISION Proposed Old Change 1. BASS 51.0 51.0 – 2. BRADDON 52.7 51.5 +1.2 3. Denison 65.3 65.6 -0.3 4. Franklin 54.1 54.5 -0.4 5. Lyons 57.9 58.8 -0.9
major mitchell
Guest

I agree there isnt a major shift in people despite the large area change into braddon. Does this marginally favour the libs in braddon, could make it very interesting in 2010?

Ben Raue
Guest

Oh, and the seat of Denison still remains, it hasn’t been renamed as Inglis Clark.

Ben Raue
Guest

At first glance:

The whole of West Coast council seems to have been transferred from Lyons to Braddon. This makes the map look really different but I don’t know whether there really is that many people being shifted in that area. Braddon has also gained Kentish LGA and lost Latrobe LGA.

Bass is almost identical, apart from minor changes around Launceston.

Lyons, as well as losing Kentish and West Coast and picking up Latrobe, has picked up the Bridgewater area and the area around Lake Pedder up from Franklin.

Denison has gained what’s left of Kinsgborough from Franklin.

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