As much for personal amusement as anything else, I will henceforth be doing my own polling aggregates for swing states. To account for the fact that state polling lags behind the nightly national tracking polls, each result is adjusted according to the change in the Real Clear Politics national average since the date of the poll (if the polling period was more than one day, the last date is used). For example, the only poll from Indiana was a 46-all result from October 3: the RCP average has since had Obama up 0.6 and McCain up 0.2, so into the Obama column it goes. The results are also adjusted so that greater weight is given to polls with larger samples. I’ve only been doing this for a few days, so at present the only polls used are those ending October 1 or later. This means I have no data for Wisconsin, which Electoral-Vote says was most recently polled on September 23 (I’m following their lead and giving it to Obama). As you can see, Obama currently has a clean sweep of the swing states: I’ll have to reconsider which ones to include if this keeps up. (UPDATE: I’m progressively updating this as new polls come in, so much of what I’ve just said is now out of date).

October 1-8 Obama McCain Sample D-EV R-EV
Pennsylvania 51.3 40.6 2552 21
Michigan 51.1 41.3 531 17
Washington 53.0 43.6 700 11
New Hampshire 52.6 43.3 2160 4
Minnesota 51.1 42.2 3073 10
Wisconsin 51.2 44.3 1531 10
New Mexico 46.8 42.2 1159 5
Maine 51.0 46.6 500 4
Ohio 49.3 44.9 6622 20
Virginia 49.6 45.4 2891 13
Nevada 49.9 46.2 1768 5
Colorado 48.5 45.2 2110 9
Florida 49.3 46.0 2250 27
North Carolina 48.6 46.0 3113 15
Missouri 49.7 47.5 1000 11
Indiana 45.5 48.7 1477 11
Others 182 163
RCP/Total 49 43.9 364 174

As was the case last week, tomorrow I will have an open thread for discussion of the presidential candidates’ debate, which will run independently of this one.

UPDATE: Polls from Time/CNN shift Indiana to the McCain column.

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