I’ve added a new item of methodology for state polling aggregates: as many days’ worth of polling will be included from a given state as is necessary to produce a sample of more than 3000. The base line remains October 1. Apart from that, polls are being adjusted to incorporate the shift in the Real Clear Politics national average since the time they were conducted. Two developments are worth noting. We have a new swing state in West Virginia, where an American Research Group survey shows Obama with a shock 50-42 lead. This reverses the result from the last poll in the state (by Rasmussen) on September 24, so it should be treated with caution for the time being. Conversely, another American Research Group survey has McCain leading 49-46 in Missouri, which cuts Obama’s aggregate lead there from 2.2 per cent to 0.2 per cent.

Obama McCain Sample D-EV R-EV
Michigan 54.4 39.1 1031 17
Iowa 54.8 39.8 692 7
Pennsylvania 53.3 38.6 3142 21
Washington 53.9 42.0 700 11
New Hampshire 53.4 41.6 2760 4
West Virginia 50.9 40.4 600 5
Wisconsin 52.1 41.7 2641 10
Minnesota 51.2 41.3 3673 10
Virginia 51.6 42.5 3183 13
Colorado 50.6 42.8 3441 9
Florida 51.1 43.7 3125 27
New Mexico 47.7 40.6 1159 5
Maine 51.9 45.0 500 4
Nevada 50.8 44.6 1768 5
North Carolina 49.3 44.7 3736 15
Ohio 48.5 45.1 3418 20
Missouri 48.9 46.6 1600 11
Indiana 45.6 47.4 1977 11
Others 175 158
RCP/Total 49.9 42.3 369 169
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