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NSW Politics

Oct 18, 2008

NSW by-elections live

7.51pm. The NSWEC has all but a few booths in from Port Macquarie, and you can now clearly call it for Peter Besseling, who leads the Nationals candidate 36.8 per cent to 31.9 per cent.

7.51pm. The NSWEC has all but a few booths in from Port Macquarie, and you can now clearly call it for Peter Besseling, who leads the Nationals candidate 36.8 per cent to 31.9 per cent. Elsewhere it’s clear the results are as expected: a big win for the Liberals in Ryde, and narrower wins for Labor in Cabramatta and Lakemba following swings of over 20 per cent.

7.30pm. With 22.4 per cent counted, Besseling 37.6 per cent and Nationals 31.9 per cent, so Besseling home and hosed unless these are very good Nationals booths outstanding.

7.26pm. Labor’s lead now up to 5.7 per cent in Cabramatta according to the ABC. Still no actual prefernece counts in yet.

7.24pm. Seven booths out of 21 counted on the primary vote in Ryde, and that Taverner poll is looking good: Liberal on 62 per cent of the two-party vote.

7.23pm. ABC computer has Besseling leading by 1.2 per cent in Port Macquarie, but with no notional preference counts in yet this is based on assumptions about preferences.

7.21pm. The ABC computer is now up to speed on the Cabramatta count: Labor is facing a 24 per cent swing, but that leaves them with 5 per cent to spare.

7.14pm. No real trouble for Labor in Lakemba, with 59.2 per cent after a third of the booths counted.

7.11pm. NSWEC has eight booths counted in Cabramatta, Labor leading 48.0 per cent to 40.4 per cent, so Nick Lalich is not actually in trouble. Liberals on 54.9 per cent in Ryde with over a third of the booths counted, so an obvious win for them there.

7.08pm. Comments tells me Cabramatta “tightening”, but ABC computer still only has one booth. NSWEC website most unwieldy (PDFs? Come on …).

7.00pm. Nine booths in and 6 per cent counted in Port Macquarie, and looking ominous for the Nationals, who trail Besseling 35.0 per cent to 32.9 per cent on the primary vote. Still nothing from Ryde.

6.55pm. Labor looking at an ugly swing in Cabramatta of over 20 per cent, but not enough to cost them the seat.

6.50pm. Commenter Oakeshott Country, who knows his Port Macquarie onions backwards, says the three small booths in so far suggest a very close result between the Nationals candidate Leslie Williams and independent Peter Besseling.

6.42pm. Riverwood booth in from Lakemba. Labor vote on 55.3 per cent, which suggests a 20 per cent drop.

6.20pm. Booths closed 20 minutes ago. First results should be in shortly.

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206 comments

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Oz
Guest

Fair enough.

Australia Votes
Guest

Just waiting for the final results so I can get the exact percentages.

Oz
Guest

Are you waiting for something in particular? Isn’t it pretty much cut and dried?

Australia Votes
Guest

So, I found put they continually update the results not enter them all at once.

Australia Votes
Guest

The NSWEC seems to have all the declaration votes for Lakemba added to the result but it’s still only 80.3% of the total enrollment, this seems too low, even for a by-election. Do they wait until all the votes from a certain part of the declarations are counted before they add them to the results or do they continuously update it?

Bird of paradox
Guest

[ Dubbo was close both at the by-election to replace McCrane with Fardell and her re-election at the 2007 election. Labor preferences assisted her on both occasions and with Labor on the nose their preferences will be fewer and fewer come 2011. This should assist the Nationals in reclaiming Dubbo and Tamworth on simple mathematical dimensions. ]

This is wrong – Labor didn’t run a candidate in the 2004 by-election. They got 11.1% in 2007… it’s hard to see them going much backwards from that. In 2007, Fardell was 0.9% behind the Nats on primary vote, but won by 0.9% – the figures here would suggest about half the Labor voters preferenced the Nats, so they’re neither helped not hindered by any reduction in Labor’s vote. If the Nats want to win Dubbo, they’ll have to do it themselves.

As for Torbay, he ain’t going nowhere… he beat the Nats 72.7 to 17.7 on primary last time. Tamworth’s more winnable for them, but if it’s following Northern Tablelands (and New England federally), the Nats are gonna get squelched. Will be interesting to see which one happens. As for Port Macquarie, they’ve blown their best chance to get that back.

Generic Person
Guest

No 198

Point fully taken, William.

Generic Person
Guest

No 171

Albertross, what a load of rubbish mate.

Dai Le was raised in the area, married in the area and her family in the area. So she is not some candidate that has absolutely no links to the community unlike the former Member for Coogeematta, Reba Meagher, who was parachuted from the eastern suburbs to run for Cabramatta in 1994. Your absolute failure to recognise that fact highlights your appalling double standards.

SNIP: Defamatory comment deleted – The Management.

barry99
Guest

Paul Nash,
Your comments sound like something from National Leader magazine or its predecessor, The Countryman.

If TV aggregation hurt the Nationals so much, how come independent candidates with limited resources have flourished since 1991?

Maybe the electors are astute enough to realise that an independent MP can do more for their electorate then a National Party opposition backbencher.

Geoff Robinson
Guest

If 2011 is to be a rerun of 1988 Labor’s problem is that the left vote is split, many Green voters will only vote 1. Labor might do worse in Sydney than in 1988: Blacktown & Londonderry look at risk, but Labor might do a bit better in the country than in 1988 Bathurst & Cessnock should be held and Monaro might be difficult for the Nats.

Paul Nash
Guest

To Answer the Previous blogs;

Bird of Paradox at 189

I hope the age of the rural independents in over in New South Wales come the next election. Dubbo was close both at the by-election to replace McCrane with Fardell and her re-election at the 2007 election. Labor preferences assisted her on both occasions and with Labor on the nose their preferences will be fewer and fewer come 2011. This should assist the Nationals in reclaiming Dubbo and Tamworth on simple mathematical dimensions. The Speaker of the NSW lower House elected by his Labor mates is Richard Torbay the Independent member for Northern Tablelands and his spending big according to some sources in the Parliamentary speakers office this should rub off in 2011 and see the Nationals return in this seat once held by Wran Labor. Port Macquarie may come back to the Nationals with a higher voter turnout at a General Election.

Barry 99 @ 191 and Antony Green @ 192

I understand both your points well but the real problem facing the National profile particularly in Southern NSW is the effect aggregation of Regional TV stations in the early 1990’s. Win based in Wollongong is Sydney centric and the National Party profile in submerged by this Labor/Liberal main contest. NBN in Northern NSW is still problematic but not yet to the same degree.

barry99
Guest

Antony,
Thanks for that information.

Antony GREEN
Guest

The National/Country Party’s strength in the north rather than the south of NSW owes much to the party’s long connections with the New England New State movement. It’s only after the defeat of the New State Referendum in 1967 that the Country Party finally let the idea of a New England state slip. Mind you, the Liberal Party made sure they included Newcastle in the proposed state to ensure that the referendum was defeated.

barry99
Guest

Paul Nash,
All of the NSW Nationals’ state MPs on the mid north coast are blow-ins.

John Turner, the member for Myall Lakes, is a blow-in from Cessnock. He only moved from Cessnock after being elected to parliament.
Andrew Stoner, member for Oxley, is a blow-in from Brisbane. He joined the NSW Nationals just before the 1996 Port Macquarie by-election.
Andrew Fraser, member for Coffs Harbour is from Newcastle.

As for Southern NSW being Nationals heartland, I suggest you do a little research.
Here’s a few points I can recall off the top of my head.
State seats:
Albury – has never been won by the Nationals or Country Party
Wagga – has not been won by the Nationals or Country Party since 1938
Bega – the seat was created in 1988 and has only been contested once by the Nationals. From what I can determine, the Nationals or Country Party have never won a seat on the NSW South Coast.
Goulburn – this seat has been held by Ron Brewer and Robert Webster for National / Country Party. The Nats were kind enough to donate it to the Liberals.

Federal:
Farrer – this seat was created in 1949 and has only ever had one non Liberal Party member, Tim Fischer.
Gilmore – this seat is hardly National Party heartland. The seat that John Sharp won in 1984 included Goulburn and towns further west. Even after door knocking every town in the electorate, the Nats were struggling to reach 20% in South Coast booths.
Hume – the Nationals all but gave this seat to the Liberals. IMHO if Alby retired (or carked it) then the Nats have a reasonable chance of regaining this seat.

oakeshott country
Guest

The chance was blown in Myall Lakes at the 2003 election. A single good independent should have got up but the mayors of both Great Lakes and Taree both stood and Chadban from Great Lakes “forgot” to register his HTV. Both these long standing mayors are gone and I don’t think anyone local has a significant profile at the moment. Paul Hogan the new mayor of Taree may be able to develop a profile over the next 30 months, if he wants to.

Bird of paradox
Guest

Nash and OC: What do you reckon the chances are of more local independents taking out existing National seats like Barwon, Myall Lakes, Oxley etc? It seems to be becoming the usual thing over there. (The same kind of swap from one independent to another at a by-election happened in Dubbo a few years back.)

Paul Nash
Guest

The real dirty campaign in Port Macquarie was run by the 11 local Liberals supported by its property developer president Ken Dodds.

The Liberals dreams of holding Northern NSW seats leds them into the arms of so-called independents to the great detriment of the Coalition.

The Nationals play their politics tough only because they have to an alliance and coalition of all groupings within the Australian political establishment are out for their complete destruction. The Just Vote One strategy was clever and was used successful in Queensland under Beattie Labor.

leone
Guest
The Nationals ran a filthy campaign in Port Macquarie, as usual, and deserved to lose. The ‘Just Vote 1’ campaign was organised and run by the Nats in an attempt to stop voters giving preferences that might have gone to Peter Besseling. Today in the Port Macquarie News the Nats NSW state director Ben Franklin was claiming that the Nationals encouraged people to simply vote one for Leslie Williams in the lead-up to Saturday’s by-election because they were confident that she would be one of the top two candidates and preferences would not be needed. Utter bullshit! The Nats had phone polled extensively in the weeks before the by-election and had learnt that preferences would be vital and would probably allow Besseling to take the seat. They had embarked on a crusade to make sure all voters did not allocate any preferences at all. Fortunately it didn’t work out as they had hoped. The Nats ran the ‘Just Vote 1’ campaign. Polling places were festooned with red and white ‘Just Vote 1’ posters. People on hand-out duty wore white T-shirts with ‘Just Vote 1’ emblazoned in red, they did an excellent job of pretending to be representatives from the State Electoral Office. It was only when you read the extremely small print at the bottom of their literature that you found out this shonky little operation had been approved by the Nats. Then there’s the appeal to the Greens to take Besseling’s name off the how-to-vote info. Greens campaigners on polling booth duty on Saturday claimed to have been present when a phone call came in with that request, it most definitely did not stop after a few bantering words between Sylvia Hale and Melinda Pavey. There was also the scare campaign aimed at elderly voters. Mrs Wiliams held a public meeting where she claimed that the NSW government would pass legislation that would see oldies in retirement communities out of pocket for expenses such as maintenance and capital improvement. She came over all caring and promised to fight this dreadful law. She forgot to tell her audience that the Retirement Villages Amendment Bill 2008 had already been passed by the Legislative Assembly with enthusiastic support from her own party and has been introduced to the Legislative Council on 23 September 2008, where it is expected to pass without any problem. She didn’t mention to her audience that she would,… Read more »
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