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Federal By-Elections

Dec 5, 2009

HIGGINS
# % SWING 2PP
O’Dwyer (LIB) 34764 54.4% 0.2% 59.6%
Hamilton (GRN) 20778 32.5% 22.2% 40.4%
Australian Sex Party 2084 3.3%
Liberal Democrats 311 0.5%
Australian Democrats 1455 2.3% 1.1%
One Nation 199 0.3%
Democratic Labor Party 2452 3.8%
Independents 1828 2.9%
TOTAL 63871
COUNTED: 72.5%
BOOTHS (OF 38): 38
BRADFIELD
# % SWING 2PP
Fletcher (LIB) 39159 56.3% -3.2% 63.8%
Gemmell (GRN) 17608 25.3% 14.4% 36.2%
Democratic Labor Party 1477 2.1%
Australian Sex Party 2222 3.2%
One Nation 450 0.6%
Liberal Democrats 561 0.8%
CCC 702 1.0%
ENE 719 1.0%
Independents/CDP 6646 9.6%
TOTAL 69544
COUNTED: 73.1%
BOOTHS (OF 40): 40

Tuesday. 3726 postals from Bradfield, massively favouring the Liberals (75.4-24.6 on 2PP).

Sunday (9pm). Turnout on ordinary votes was 88.8% of the 2007 election in Higgins and 95.9% in Bradfield, compared with 89.3% at the Mayo by-election, 93.2% in Lyne and 89.4% in Gippsland. So it was actually quite high in Bradfield and only slightly below par in Higgins. Part of the reason in Higgins might be that it’s not a growth area. We could equally get a high number of pre-polls and postals bringing the number closer to average. I suspect we’ve seen half the pre-polls counted so far (the rest should come in quite quickly) and a third of the postals (which should dribble in over the next week).

Sunday (7.30pm). 2938 postals from Higgins added. Error in my Bradfield table corrected.

Sunday (4.30pm). 5841 pre-polls from Higgins and 3765 from Bradfield added. These have been particularly strong for Kelly O’Dwyer, increasing her two-party margin from 8.3 per cent to 9.1 per cent. Special hospital team (about 500 votes) also added from Bradfield; not yet available from Higgins.

Sunday (early). The AEC has seen fit to publish booth results, so too late to be any use, I hereby reinstate the table. Also, here’s a revised version of my regional Higgins breakdown. I’ve abolished the distinction between the “pink-green” area of Prahran-Windsor and “red” Carnegie – notwithstanding that there’s some distance between the two, the figures were near identical. The other distinction is between “deep blue” Toorak-Kooyong and the “light blue” bulk of the electorate.

LIB CHANGE GRN LIB 2PP SWING
Light Blue 52.76% -1.2% 24.4% 58.5% 1.1%
Deep Blue 61.13% -2.9% 19.8% 65.3% -0.7%
Marginal 41.03% 2.1% 27.9% 48.6% 6.8%

And here’s the Bradfield breakdown, the “marginal” area being what I described previously as “pockets on the edges of the electorate in the north-west at Asquith and Hornsby and in the south at Chatswood and Willoughby”.

LIB CHANGE GRN LIB 2PP SWING
Deep Blue 58.0% -5.6% 25.2% 66.0% -1.7%
Marginal 48.4% 0.2% 28.9% 57.1% 4.1%

The general impression is that while the Greens absorbed most of the missing Labor vote across the board, some of it leaked either to the Liberals or to other minor parties (the DLP in particular polled 6.6 per cent in the marginal areas of Higgins, and scored double the vote in the marginal areas of Bradfield compared with the rest of the electorate) and thence to the Liberals as preferences. This counterbalanced a fall in the Liberal primary vote in the deep blue areas of both electorates, which proved nowhere near the magnitude required to put them in danger. It’s interesting to note that this fall was lower in Higgins than in Bradfield, which it’s tempting to put down to resistance to Clive Hamilton among those at the highest end of the income scale.

9.20pm. I’ve performed a similar exercise in Bradfield. There are marginal pockets on the edges of the electorate in the north-west at Asquith and Hornsby and in the south at Chatswood and Willoughby. These areas swung to the Liberals 4.7 per cent in two-party terms. However, the wealthy Liberal heart of the electorate, from Killara north through St Ives, swung 5.1 per cent to the Greens.

8.40pm. Psephos in comments notes the trend detectable from Higgins in the table below (which I’m continuing to update as the last few booths come in) is reflected in Bradfield: “Hornsby Central, Labor’s best booth in the seat: Liberal primary vote up 5.9%.”

8.20pm. I’ll keep that coming in tabular form. “Light blue” zone is the bulk of the electorate; “deep blue” the riverfront from South Yarra through Toorak to Kooyong; “pink-green” Prahran/Windsor; “red” the Carnegie area.

LIB 2PP SWING BOOTHS REPORTING
Light blue zone 0.9% 20 out of 21
Deep blue zone -0.8% 6 out of 6
Pink-green zone 6.3% 6 out of 6
Red zone 7.1% 3 out of 3

8.02pm. While I’ve been quiet, I’ve been calculating the Higgins booth results provided by Antony into four zones. While this has been happening the Liberal-Greens margin has blown out to 9 per cent. All four zones have swung to the Liberals: the normally Labor-voting area in the south-east around Carnegie by 9.3 per cent; posh Toorak/Kooyong has swung 1.7 per cent; pink-green Prahran/Windsor 4.3 per cent; and the middle-Liberal balance, from Armadale to Glen Iris and Camberwell to Malvern, by 1.1 per cent. That’s assuming my calculations are correct, which I can’t state with total confidence.

7.38pm. Twelve booths now in from Higgins, swing steady at 5.4 per cent, Kelly home and hosed. Props though to the 400 or so voters of Toorak West for the short-lived entertainment they provided.

7.32pm. Another booth pushes Liberal two-party lead in Higgins to 5.4 per cent. Antony has abandoned commentary, but if he hadn’t I’m guessing he would be calling it now.

7.30pm. No alarms for the Liberals in Bradfield: projected margin 12 per cent.

7.28pm. Antony nonetheless says Higgins “can’t be called yet”.

7.27pm. Antony Green has eight booths in from Higgins and 9.2 per cent counted – O’Dwyer with an almost certainly sufficient 4.8 per cent two-party lead.

7.22pm. Possum, who took about 10 seconds to call the US election for Obama, says on Twitter: “Shorter Higgins – Greens went well with wealthy Lib voters but not so good with middle income Libs. Failed with ALP voters. game over”.

7.19pm. I’ve abandoned the table – it is not possible to keep up with the furious number crunching I needed to do to keep track as each new booth reported. Head to the ABC for elucidation on what’s happening.

7.15pm. That Toorak West result looking quirkier after Gardiner booth reports, but it’s still close. Having trouble keeping up due to AEC failure to report individual booths, so double check anything you see above.

7.13pm. Better result for Liberals in Higgins from Kooyong Park.

7.05pm. Both the booths have 2PP votes in, so my 2PP figures are now less speculative.

7.02pm. First Higgins booth is super wealthy, super Liberal Toorak West, and it shows a very interesting plunge in the Liberal vote.

6.49pm. Unless I’m mistaken – please let it be so – the AEC are not providing individual polling booth figures, which means I might as well pack up and go home.

6.46pm. Lady Davidson Hospital booth in from Bradfield – only 293 votes, but no evidence of a remarkable result.

6.36pm. Still nothing. These are urban electorates so there are no small booths that report quickly; the large number of candidates, particularly in Bradfield, might also be slowing things down.

6.20pm. Until I get notional 2PP counts, my 2PP will be based on the following preference estimates:

HIGGINS: ASP 80-20 to Greens; LDP 80-20 to Liberal; Dems 70-30 to Greens; ONP and DLP 80-20 to Liberal; all others 55-45 to Liberal.

BRADFIELD: DLP 80-20 to Liberal; ASP 80-20 to Greens; ONP and LDP 80-20 to Liberal; CCC and ENE 50-50; all others 75-25 to Liberal.

# and % primary vote figures are raw; primary vote swing and 2PP figures are based on booth matching.

6pm. Welcome to the Poll Bludger’s live coverage of the Higgins and Bradfield by-elections. First figures should be in in about 20 minutes.

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1328 comments

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Daniel B
Guest

testing [[testing]] testing

Daniel B
Guest

testing [ testing ] testing

Daniel B
Guest

testing [testing] testing

bob1234
Guest

So why did the Bradfield informal vote go up 5% when the 1992 Wills by-election saw no change in the informal vote despite fielding 22 candidates too?

Rebecca
Guest

Labor was never going to contest these seats in the circumstances as they were at the time of Abbott and Nelson’s resignations, for the reasons Adam states. If they had somehow had the psychic foresight to know that the Liberals were going to engage in the most spectacular implosion in recent memory in the meantime, they might have taken the risk. Without that, though, it would have been a stupid decision.

Psephos
Guest

[seats which Labor has come close to winning]

Oops “seats which Labor has NEVER come close to winning”

Psephos
Guest
[Labor turned out to be a bunch chicken-sh*t wimps and ran away from the good fight. I think they could’ve won.] Ho hum. It is now the established view in both parties that you do not contest Opposition held seats at by-elections when you are in government. The likelihood of a news-positive outcome (“Labor wins Bradfield!”) is very small, the likelihood of a news-negative outcome (“Setback for Rudd!”) is very high. That’s why the Libs didn’t contest Blaxland, Fraser, Holt, Isaacs, Cunningham or Werriwa when they were in office. Labor did contest Gippsland, and duly got a news-negative outcome when… Read more »
john2066
Guest

Ok, but your comment says “this fall was greater in Higgins than in Bradfield” so the liberal vote dropped more in Higgins, which means more of these deep blue voters went to Clive Hamilton than in Bradfield.

Desert Fox
Guest
Now even Tim Flannery admits that the warming of the previous 25 years has halted and “there hasn’t been a continuation of that warming trend … (climate scientists) work with models, computer modelling, when the computer modelling and the real world data disagrees you have a problem …” Why will not Kevin Rudd admit the same thing? Now Abbott tells Macquarie radio, “Notwithstanding the dramatic increases in man-made CO2 emissions over the last decade, the world’s warming has stopped.” Wong’s response – “He is out there publicly talking about the world cooling when we have so many world leaders …… Read more »
john2066
Guest
I dont understand this comment: “This counterbalanced a fall in the Liberal primary vote in the deep blue areas of both electorates, which proved nowhere near the magnitude required to put them in danger. It’s interesting to note that this fall was greater in Higgins than in Bradfield, which it’s tempting to put down to resistance to Clive Hamilton among those at the highest end of the income scale.” On the one hand you’re saying that the fall in the deep blue Liberal vote was more in Higgins, and then you say ‘its tempting to put down to resistance to… Read more »
coconaut
Guest
Is this the first election where everyone loses? 1. At an election where the Liberals are wondering if their new leader is any good, the Liberal booths swung away from them, an ominous sign for the next election. 2. Labor turned out to be a bunch chicken-sh*t wimps and ran away from the good fight. I think they could’ve won. 3. The Greens couldn’t crack it, despite favourable conditions and a high profile candidate, and ran an extremely lacklustre 20th century campaign. 4. The Sex Party didn’t make 4% 5. All the other minors were just that … minors. No… Read more »
jaundiced view
Guest

The Lib experience since Turnbull took over is a bit analogous to a start-up coffee shop. The first owner is meticulous in staff selection, training, customer service, and builds up the customer base over 12 months, eventually getting the figures up to, say, ’44 points’. Then the cafe is sold at its peak returns to a big-mouthed abrasive chap from out of town. How’s it going to go?

Tom the first and best
Guest
Tom the first and best

1310

Yes. And for once it is not the my wireless or internet.

Thomas. Paine.
Guest

I was thinking it would be a point or two worse than this, but will require a few polls to gauge anything.

Least Tony will take something from it not leaping to 59/41.

Rocket Rocket
Guest

Captain Renault : “The Greens vote has fallen. Round up the usual suspects.”

bob1234
Guest

Anyone else having trouble getting to http://mumble.com.au/ ?

bob1234
Guest

It must be a rogue Newspoll.

LOL

😀

ShowsOn
Guest

LOL! So 56 / 44, which is about the average the polls have been for the last 2 years.

scorpio
Guest
I thought this was a good comment on Virginia’s piece also! [Virginia – good article. I heard exactly the same from my wife when Abbott was elected. The squeeze and comment for Julie Bishop made my wife, who is not madly feminist, yell at the telly. She also made the comparison between Julie Gillard and Penny Wong and how well they handled their press conference. Only part of your article I disagree with his your description of Kevin Rudd. I agree with Professor Chris O’Brien who said before passing away that Rudd is intelligent, articulate and compassionate and he was… Read more »
jaundiced view
Guest
[Barnaby is a beer-garden polly…..loud, exaggerated, the grog doing all the thinking…] I daresay- not that I have always avoided that convivial scenario out of hand… I think the difference between Barnaby and other beer-garden bombasts like myself is that Barnaby forgets to identify and marshall a few ideas BEFORE he gets on the grog. I’ve always thought that if you are a speaker on an issue and you reduce it to 3 key points then you can take it anywhere – even to the bottom of a bottle of Ron Zacapa XO without losing your cogency. (‘Ron ‘- That’s… Read more »
Dario
Guest

That’s it? Gee, I should have gone to bed…

Peter Young
Guest

Psephos – 1293

[ are you the Peter Young who was the Labor candidate for Lowe in 1969? (I guess you’d be getting on a bit now.) ]

Good no-god, that question is out of left field.

Was he the guy who stood on the platform ” Billy I want your seat !”

Unfortunately, the short answer to the question posed by you is NO.

scorpio
Guest
The MSM might be trying to soften Abbott’s image with the female voter but two of the sisterhood aren’t going to give him an easy ride. Good thing too! Stephanie Peatling had this comment at the end of her piece and the second one is by Virginia Haussegger who presents ABC TV News in Canberra. [Nevertheless his minders would probably prefer if he didn’t repeat his comments to Sarah Murdoch after she launched Battlelines. The pair knew each other through their mutual support of the Manly Sea Eagles. Abbott said he asked Murdoch because at least one person on the… Read more »
Frank Calabrese
Guest

[Now you can go to bed!]

Still 8.58pm in WA 🙂 The night is still young.

Grog
Guest

[Now you can go to bed!]

Thank you I will!

mexicanbeemer
Guest

No differences

Diogenes
Guest

Now you can go to bed!

Grog
Guest
Diogenes
Guest

Newspoll 56-44

Psephos
Guest

“and he’s too to change now.” = “and he’s too old to change now.”

Psephos
Guest

Abbott will get a bit of a honeymoon over the summer (unless Rudd actually does save the world at Kobnhavn), but he will be cut to pieces next year when battle resumes. He’s shallow, careless, ignorant, undisciplined, intellectually lazy, and never knows to when stop until he seriously offends someone. He’s repeated this pattern over and over, and he’s too to change now.

dave
Guest

[ Barnaby is a beer-garden polly…..loud, exaggerated, the grog doing all the thinking… ]

Yep. But let him run with the rope. Lets just see where and how he goes.

Let him hang himself. Doubt if it will take very long.

Psephos
Guest

Peter Young, are you the Peter Young who was the Labor candidate for Lowe in 1969? (I guess you’d be getting on a bit now.)

briefly
Guest

as I say, tedious

crikey whitey
Guest

http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2008/03/17/newspoll-59-41-2/all-comments/#comments

Seems to work. Checkers in will read some vigorous argument.

I have not changed my mind. About Kev and stuff.

Though now I wonder about Harry ‘Snapper’ Organs well being.

bob1234
Guest

[I think criticism is only to be expected.]

Indeed. That’s why this is Labor hackery rubbish:

[He seems to have a lot of Liberal DNA in his politics, Centre, reflected in his repetitious, disingenuous and entirely gratuitous snottiness towards those of a Labor persuasion.]

Keith is not my real name
Guest
Keith is not my real name

“William Bowe
Posted Sunday, December 6, 2009 at 11:15 pm | Permalink
ACN is the new benchmark IMO

Why forgive Nielsen this rogue 52-48 result, but not Newspoll this one?”

Whatever William bets, I’ll go double 😉

Keith is not my real name
Guest
Keith is not my real name

Apologies for the formatting errors

Keith is not my real name
Guest
Keith is not my real name

Mind, you are encouraging me!!

I certainly hope so.

Dull, these one eyed repeaters are

briefly
Guest

I think criticism is only to be expected. It is just so tedious and destructive when it becomes [repetitious, disingenuous and entirely gratuitous snottiness].

bob1234
Guest

[He seems to have a lot of Liberal DNA in his politics, Centre, reflected in his repetitious, disingenuous and entirely gratuitous snottiness towards those of a Labor persuasion.]

Are you really that ignorant that you’re yet to understand modern Labor will receive criticism from the left as well as the right? Jeez Louise..

briefly
Guest

lol j-v @ 1272.

Barnaby is a beer-garden polly…..loud, exaggerated, the grog doing all the thinking…

Thomas. Paine.
Guest

It is only news for a day or two then forgotten…Liberals elected replaced Costello and Nelson, news not that big for the general public.

Peter Young
Guest
Trying to draw a consensus from the over 1,200 posts on the by-election results the best I can do is:- 1. The poll results are inconclusive leaving it open for spin-meisters to put whatever spin they choose to put on the results. 2. Spin-meisters have the choice of- a. A shocking perforance by the Greens/A brilliant result for Liberals, or b. A good result for the Greens/A disappointing Liberal performance. and c. A brilliant tactical decision by the ALP not to contest the seats, or d. The Rudd ALP are scared of the polls and e. The correct pronunciation of… Read more »
Dario
Guest

[A rogue is a rogue there is nothing to forgive. It is not the poll that is the problem but the way the media used what was most likely a rogue.]

In particular how the poll’s owner used and abused it

ltep
Guest

Nielson, of course, was also furthest from the mark for ‘the big event’.

Thomas. Paine.
Guest

A rogue is a rogue there is nothing to forgive. It is not the poll that is the problem but the way the media used what was most likely a rogue.

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