The Australian has published its quarterly accumulation of Newspoll results, allowing large-sample breakdowns over state, sex, age and capitals versus non-capitals. Samantha Maiden of The Australian judges the salient feature of the results to be a bounce to Labor in “non-capitals” from 49-51 to 53-47, but a look at the results over time suggests the earlier result was an aberration. In the capitals the score has been in a narrow band from 58-42 to 60-40; currently it is at the high end. A shift to Labor in Queensland from 51-49 to 56-44 looks a little counter-intuitive, and again the previous result looks to have been out of character. Interesting to note the Greens are up three points to 17 per cent among the 18-34 group, but basically stable elsewhere. Labor has dropped four points among 18-34s since the election, while edging up slightly in older cohorts. All told, the figures point to Labor swings of about 2 per cent swing in New South Wales, 5 per cent in Victoria and Queensland, 6 per cent in Western Australia and 7 per cent in South Australia.

Two ageing items I forgot to include in the previous post:

• Way back on December 13, The Sunday Age reported unions appeared to have scuttled a plan to cap corporate donations and double public funding of parties, which had been the subject of negotiations between Labor and Liberal. The plan was to bring Australia roughly in line with Canada and New Zealand by capping donations at $1500 and increasing public funding from $2.20 to $4.25. Significantly, Mark Skulley of the Financial Review reported in October that Labor had conceded to the Liberals a ban on corporations, third parties and associated entities that would extend to union affiliation fee, which had union leaders fearing a Rudd plot to “Blairise” the party. The plan also included an amendment to restrict political advertising by third parties.

Andrew Fraser of The Australian reported a few weeks ago on a deal in which Hajnal Ban, who was the Nationals candidate for Forde in 2007, would sit as a Liberal if successful in her bid for the new seat of Gold Coast hinterland seat of Wright. All Coalition candidates in Queensland will run under the LNP banner, so a deal has had to be arranged as to which party rooms they will join.

Note also that Ben Raue at The Tally Room has completed 41 out of 150 profiles for his federal election guide, the last addition before a new year hiatus being North Sydney.

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