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SA Election 2010

Mar 17, 2010

Educated guesswork

After much indecision, I have finally appended my South Australian election guide entries with predictions for each seat. To cut a lo

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After much indecision, I have finally appended my South Australian election guide entries with predictions for each seat. To cut a long story short, I am tipping Labor to win 24 seats (loss of four), the Liberals to win 20 (gain of six), independents three (loss of one) and the Nationals zero (loss of one). I thus find myself tipping a one-seat Labor majority for the third state election in a row. In Western Australia I was only a seat or two out, but my error was crucially in the wrong direction, such that I missed the change of government. The Queensland election prediction was not one of my better performances: I made from memory seven wrong calls, each being a seat I wrongly thought the Liberal National Party would gain from Labor. Third time lucky, perhaps.

What follows are detailed rationales for the choices I’ve made. Two pieces of terminology which appear throughout require explanation: one familiar to election buffs the world over, the other of which I just made up. “Sophomore surge” refers to the advantage known to accrue to candidates who were first elected at the previous election, and are thus enjoying the advantages of incumbency for the first time. The effect is particularly pronounced where the member unseated a candidate of the opposing party at the previous election, as the incumbency advantage moves from one party to the other. So it was in most of the seats on which the election will hinge, which is a major advantage to Labor. In calibrating this effect I examined results from the 2002 and 2006 elections in Victoria, the former of which delivered Labor a mother lode of seats at the expense of their opponents. Of the 19 such seats, 16 delivered Labor better-than-average results in swing terms in 2006, the average swing to the Coalition being 1.6 per cent less than the statewide result.

“Donkey flip” refers to circumstances where the donkey vote favoured one party in 2006, but favours the other in 2010. The conventional wisdom says about 1 per cent of the electorate wantonly numbers the candidates in ballot paper order, so under preferential voting the vote ends up with whichever of the Labor or Liberal candidates is higher on the ballot paper. If it’s the same party at both elections, the value of the previous election as a guide to the current one is undiminished. But when it changes, a 1 per cent bonus must be factored in to whichever party picks up the benefit.

Light (Labor 2.4%): There are a number of reasons Labor has remained vaguely hopeful about Light in more optimistic moments, despite it being their most marginal seat. Labor member Tony Piccolo gets both the sophomore surge and donkey flip, so his natural margin might be said to be more like 5 per cent. Labor also believes the rapid growth of the area puts some wind in its sails because it has changed the electorate’s once-rural character, although the booth swings over the past decade have in fact matched the statewide results quite closely. In any case, the narrowness of the margin is such that a Labor win would be an upset. Those watching the seat’s progress on election night should note that it might behave erratically: it combines the heavily Labor outer suburbs of Munno Para and Smithfield Plains, the growing rural towns of Roseworthy and Angle Vale and the satellite city of Gawler which dominates it. Each of these might swing in different ways: even within Gawler itself there might be a division between the growing outer suburbs of Hewett and Evanston and the town centre, where voters might be taking unkindly to their region’s rapid transformation. In the final analysis though, this goes down as a Liberal gain.

Mawson (Labor 2.7%): Labor member Leon Bignell has sophomore surge going for him, but he has lucked out on the donkey vote both times. Mawson is also a growth area, but not necessarily in ways reassuring to Labor. Hackham in particular has been trending away from them as new housing developments emerge, while remaining strong in absolute terms. The trump card for Bignell, Labor would hope, is the Southern Expressway, on which Labor snookered the Liberals shortly before the campaign began. At that time the Liberals were compelled to put their own planned announcement on ice, saying details of its promise would be made available later in the campaign. That will presumably happen over the next few days, allowing them to at least neutralise the issue. Mawson might ultimately be a tougher nut to crack for the Liberals than other seats with bigger margins, but the margin being what it is I have it down as a Liberal gain.

Norwood (Labor 3.7%): Norwood went down to the wire in 1997 and 2002 before giving Labor its smallest swing of any Adelaide seat in 2006. The conventional explanation for the latter result was the popularity of the Liberal candidate, Adelaide Crows star Nigel Smart. Given that Smart is not the candidate this time, it might be thought the seat is safer for Labor than the margin makes it appear. However, long-term sitting member Vini Ciccarello is one of the few marginal seat defenders who won’t enjoy a sophomore surge, and the Liberals also get the donkey flip. Labor should also cop the brunt of the evident public preference for the Liberals’ Royal Adelaide Hospital policy, both due to the hospital’s proximity to the electorate and the large proportion of older voters (16.9 per cent of the population compared with 13.3 per cent nationally). Labor was also deeply concerned at how the land tax issue was playing in this and other eastern suburbs electorates, hence the government’s announcement at the end of January of $52 million in cuts that would in future spare 75,000 people out of 121,000 from having to pay it. The Save RAH and Fair Land Tax parties both have candidates in the field who are directing preferences to the Liberals. While the seat is not a lay-down misere, the weight of the evidence seems to favour a Liberal gain.

Newland (Labor 5.2%): The margin in Newland is below the statewide swing indicated by Newspoll and Galaxy, but there are a number of reasons to believe Labor has it sufficiently sand-bagged. Most obviously there is the 53-47 Advertiser poll from earlier in the campaign, notwithstanding that the paper’s methodology is believed to be less sophisticated than that of the established polling agencies. Labor member Tom Kenyon gets both sophomore surge and donkey flip, although the former is diminished by the fact that he was not opposed by a sitting member in 2006, which contributed to his massive 12.3 per cent swing. The electorate is distant from Royal Adelaide Hospital, although the much nearer Modbury Hospital carries dangers of its own for the government. Land tax was biting as an issue here, but the government’s aforementioned giveaway might have taken some of the sting out of it. Most significantly, the Liberals have almost certainly made a mistake in nominating the baggage-laden Trish Draper as their candidate. All that being so, Labor retain.

Hartley (Labor 5.6%): A difficult one. Grace Portolesi will benefit from sophomore surge, but it might be mitigated by the fact that she faces Joe Scalzi, the defeated Liberal member from the last election, who by all accounts has since kept up his profile in community groups and the locally numerous Italian community. Against that, there may be a stigma attached to a “recycled candidate”, and it appears Portolesi has worked her turf very effectively over the fortnightly garbage collection and Chelsea Cinema issues. Portolesi had the donkey vote both times, so that won’t be a factor. The Royal Adelaide Hospital is close enough to be a problem for Labor, and the electorate was an epicentre of discontent over land tax: it goes without saying that Save RAH and Fair Land Tax both have candidates here. Factoring all that in, the margin is right where you wouldn’t want it to be if you were trying to make a prediction. After swinging back and forth over the past few days, Vickie Chapman’s foolishness has brought me down on the side of Labor retain.

Morialta (Labor 6.8%): Adelaide has a reputation for swinging in a fairly uniform fashion, so it’s a remarkable fact that a seat this far down the pendulum is reckoned by some to be the likeliest Liberal gain. Some background to the 2006 election can help explain this. Observers on both side of politics speak in tones of wonder at the scale of defeated Liberal member Joan Hall’s surrender during the campaign. Always averse to door-knocking, she is said to have retreated entirely to the central campaign headquarters and was almost never to be seen in her own electorate. On the other side of the ledger, Morialta had not been part of Labor’s strategy in either 1997 (the electorate was then called Coles) or 2002, but was attacked by the party with a vengeance in 2006. Cultivating territory it had previously ignored, Labor found low-hanging fruit to be particularly abundant in the Housing Trust-dominated territory around Paradise, where it recorded awesome swings of over 15 per cent. This time it’s the Liberals whose campaign efforts have switched from moribund to frenzied. An important factor here is the resources and campaigning expertise brought to bear on the electorate by Christopher Pyne, member for the corresponding federal seat of Sturt, whose office is described by Labor sources as an “aircraft carrier” for the Liberals’ campaigning efforts. Joan Hall didn’t get much help from Pyne as she had made an enemy of him and other moderates when she switched her allegiance from Dean Brown to John Olsen in 1996, enabling the latter to depose the former as Premier. By stark contrast, current Liberal candidate John Gardner worked until very recently as a staffer to Pyne, who is understandably doing his best to smooth his protégé’s passage into parliament. There are still a few points in Labor’s favour: Lindsay Simmons is said to have worked the electorate conscientiously, and there is surprisingly no Fair Land Tax candidate in the field. However, the Liberals get the donkey flip. Early in the campaign The Advertiser produced a poll which had the Liberals 52-48 in front – the consensus is that this was about on the money. Liberal gain.

Bright (Labor 6.9%): The Liberals’ apparent failure to make inroads in this seat, demonstrated by last week’s 55-45 Advertiser poll result, seems to be largely down to the popularity of local member Chloe Fox. I suspect the Liberal strategy has been to concentrate efforts in a minimum number of specific seats to be in a position to form government, and Bright hasn’t been one of them. Chloe Fox of course should get a sophomore surge, although like Tom Kenyon in Newland she did not face a sitting member in 2006. She has had the donkey vote advantage on both occasions. By overwhelming weight of conventional wisdom, Labor retain.

Mitchell (Independent 0.6% versus Labor): I might as well toss a coin here. The consensus view is that Kris Hanna won’t be able to keep his head in front of the Liberal candidate, but they said that last time as well (myself included). The argument goes that the Liberal resurgence gives him too great a hurdle to clear, and he won’t be able to piggy-back as effectively off Nick Xenophon as he did last time (the Liberal candidate rather than Hanna will also get the donkey vote this time, but that’s a relatively minor consideration). Against that, when Labor sheds votes many of their erstwhile supporters prefer parking their vote with a neutral candidate to getting in bed with the enemy. On the basis that I wrongly wrote off Hanna last time, Independent retain.

Frome (Independent 1.7% versus Liberal): Whereas Mitchell is almost certain to be determined by who finishes second, it seems very likely in the current environment that Frome will finish as a straightforward two-horse race between independent member Geoff Brock and Liberal challenger Terry Boylan. Here too there is very little hard data to go on, but my intuition is that a Liberal resurgence will be too much for Brock, and that he will struggle to appeal outside his home base of Port Pirie and in the very different electoral terrain of the surrounding rural areas and Clare Valley. That being so, Liberal gain. UPDATE: In the warm light of the late morning (Perth time), I’ve thought better about this one. That “Liberal resurgence” should be cancelled out by the general tendency of oppositions to do better in by-elections, and Geoff Brock will have a lot of low-hanging fruit in the Clare Valley even if he doesn’t poll hugely well there in absolute terms: his vote in many of these booths at the by-election was below 10 per cent. So make that Independent retain.

Chaffey (Nationals 17.2% versus Liberal): The decline of Labor’s fortunes has changed Karlene Maywald’s association with the government from asset to liability. With Labor’s re-election in 2006 a foregone conclusion, it made sense for the Riverland to vote for a seat at the cabinet table. This time it’s a case of conservative rural voters facing a clear opportunity to contribute to the defeat of a Labor government. It’s been suggested this week’s announcement on River Murray flows will be a boon for Maywald, but my guess – and that’s all it is – is that irrigators would sooner credit the forces of nature than Mike Rann. Against that, the advantages of incumbency in a rural seat should never be written off: but on the other hand, independent Russell Savage lost his Victorian state seat of Mildura just over the border in 2006, which I didn’t see coming. The Advertiser poll at the start of the campaign showing Maywald ahead 50.5-49.5 doesn’t make my life any easier, but I’m told the Liberals are confident. That swings it for me: Liberal gain.

Elsewhere, it’s by no means unthinkable that independent Don Pegler will upset the Liberal applecart in Mount Gambier, a naturally conservative seat being vacated by retiring independent Rory McEwen. However, the Liberals probably did what needed to be done in endorsing local mayor Steve Perryman, despite the knowledge that he might emerge as a loose cannon. The retirement of Liberal veteran Graham Gunn in Stuart made it a hypothetical Labor gain, but that prospect has surely receded. The Liberals are heartened by the fact that Gunn is managing the campaign of their candidate Dan van Holst Pellekaan, and has been working hard to introduce him around the electorate. The Nationals might nab Flinders from the Liberals now that sitting member Liz Penfold is retiring, but I’m thinking it must be significant that I haven’t heard it discussed lately. Finally, the perception that the swings don’t seem to be landing in the marginals where the Liberals need them most raises the prospect that swings in non-marginal seats might be on a sufficient scale to deliver Labor a nasty surprise. Adelaide‘s margin of 10.5 per cent is less than the federal Coalition suffered in some Queensland seats in 2007, but the government has spent a lot of political capital keeping it happy and has a locally popular incumbent. Beyond that I could only speculate, but it would certainly take a brave punter to tip a swing of over 12 per cent in any seat without hard evidence.

Finally, a couple of snippets of campaign news.

• Déjà vu all over again in Mount Gambier, with occasional Poll Bludger comments contributor Michael Gorey resigning as editor of the Border Watch newspaper and journalist Sandra Morello being banned from covering the election campaign. Renato Castello of the Sunday Mail reports the latter event was occasioned when “the Liberal Party complained her husband and former Border Watch editor Frank Morello was writing media releases for (independent candidate Don) Pegler”, with three such releases said to have formed the basis for Morello’s stories (a common enough practice at hard-pressed suburban and regional newspapers, as I can state from personal experience). However, Gorey gave notice six weeks earlier, so the two events are presumably not related. Pegler denied suggestions his campaign was being bankrolled by the paper’s publisher, the Scott Group, which was owned by recently deceased trucking magnate Allan Scott. Frank Morello was himself stood down by Allan Scott during the 2006 campaign after the paper ran a number of articles seen to be critical of Liberal candidate Peter Gandolfi, whose well-financed campaign was believed to have been financed by Scott. This prompted the sudden resignation of Lechelle Earl, the writer of the articles and the paper’s chief-of-staff. When Gandolfi was defeated for preselection ahead of the current election by Steve Perryman, Scott wrote to the then Liberal leader Martin Hamilton-Smith threatening to back “any independent who might contest the seat”, according to Greg Kelton of The Advertiser.

• A timely “in-principle agreement” between the South Australian, New South Wales and Queensland governments will deliver South Australia 400 gigalitres in Murray River flows, courtesy of recent flooding in Queensland. This will be a boon to irrigators in the Riverland, and thus to Karlene Maywald in Chaffey. However, Shadow Water Minister Mitch Williams says Rann is claiming credit for being granted water that New South Wales “physically cannot keep”. The announcement came shortly after irrigators had their allocations increased to their highest level since October 2006 on the back of earlier flooding in New South Wales. Meanwhile, Tony Abbott has promised to hold a referendum on referring powers over the Murray-Darling Basin to the federal government if the states don’t agree to refer the powers voluntarily.

• Brad Couch of the Sunday Mail reports Labor strategists are considering a “whirlwind rural tour” for Mike Rann in the final week, the chief virtue of which is that such a tour paid handsome dividends for Anna Bligh at the end of last year’s Queensland campaign. One problem with this is that in stark contrast to Queensland, Labor in South Australia has no marginal seats it needs to defend in rural areas – unless Giles has emerged as a problem, or the party still holds out hope of gaining Stuart. Nonetheless, it is reckoned such a move might “portray Mr Rann as energetic and statesman-like”, thus countering the widespread perception he has looked tired during the campaign.

• That hardy perennial parish pump issue, the Britannia roundabout, has been targeted by the Liberals with a promised $12 million upgrade that will include the installation of traffic lights. An $8.8 million proposal to regulate the knotty five-way traffic snarl was scrapped by the Rann government in 2005. The roundabout is located at the junction of the electorates of Adelaide, Norwood and Bragg.

• Lauren Novak of The Advertiser reports the Greens have drafted laws to replace above-the-line voting with optional preferential voting for the upper house, apparently without a minimum number of boxes that must be numbered as usually occurs in similar cases elsewhere.

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371 comments

371 thoughts on “Educated guesswork

  1. bob1234

    Love your work William! 😀

  2. Roxanna

    William, it might be a good idea to put SA in the thread title, or near the top. I thought you meant Tasmania. 🙁

  3. Peter Young

    With this prediction, and CentreBet offering Labor at $1.36, there is no “value” in backing Labor.

    However, some punters might be happy to accept “under the odds” on a winner. However, as a general rule, a punter who doesn’t insist on value, or “near value”, will in the long term end up in the poor house.

  4. Peter Young

    William,

    Thanks for the analysis.

    My only disappointment was you did not come up with any rogue seats : lol: 😆 😆

  5. my say

    and guess what i am tipping the same in tas

  6. Socrates

    Excellent analysis and summary, thanks William. If Antony Green retires the ABC should offer you a job.

    Some litter in my mailbox last night from Robert Brokenshire caused me to ponder the upper house and Family First. With Xenephon goen to FEderal parliament there is probably a seat up for grabs. I suspect this will make it that much easier for minor parties to hang on there. I find Mark Parnell of the Greens quite reasonable and think he deserves another run. But what about Brokenshire adn Family First? Someone please tell me they have been asked some hard questions during the campaign, liek who funds them?

    The Family First pamphlet we received virtually asks you to vote for them on blind faith. There is not a single specific policy listed. Only a statement to vote for “the beliefs we all share”. Really? I had no idea Robert Brokenshire shares my atheism. Hindus and Muslims too will marvel at his plurality. I’m so glad he supports a separation of church and state too, and an end to tax exemption for other than charitable work. Lets hope some of Steve Fielding’s “gloss” rubs off on Mr Brokenshire.

  7. sykesie

    The F/F propaganda I saw had a long quote from Tom Playford on the back – I thought this seemed quite random.

  8. Socrates

    sykesie

    Yes, that was the one. But that FF pamphlet did not have a single specific policy on it. What sort of policy is it to promise lower unemployment? We already have the lowest rate of any mainland state. If you look on their website there is all sorts of stuff about cutting taxes and removing “barriers to entry” for employment. What does that mean? No minimum wages? How will the tax cuts be paid for? Service cuts?
    http://www.sa-familyfirst.org.au/policies.htm

    Meanwhile there is no mention of the fact that, for all practical purposes, Family First is a religeous party, backed by the Assembly of God church. Try to find a single candidate who is not a member.
    http://unbelief.org/groups/ffp/

  9. sykesie

    The family first LC candidate Bob Randall lives down the road from me – he used to work in Nick Michin’s office but found the libs too moderate on social issues. Now there’s a scary man.

  10. Diogenes

    Thanks for that excellent summary William. Do you have a TPP so I can plug you to to the contest?

    The Libs got a huge free kick from the Tiser front page today.

    SA’s favourite son Mark Riccuito has backed the Libs new stadium (only in SA could that make front page news in election week) and “Water Torture” doubts are raised about the suspiciously timed extra water we are going to get.

  11. Michael Gorey

    William, you’re right that my departure from The Border Watch was unrelated to the Liberal Party’s claims of bias. I have commented on that issue here: http://ax.lv/1q

    I expect Perryman to win Mount Gambier, mainly because Family First has a very good candidate (Henk Bruins) and should increase their vote. With FF preferences going to the Libs it is hard to see Pegler getting up. That said, it remains to be seen how disciplined FF voters are in following the card.

    I expect Geoff Bock to retain Frome. He’s had plenty of time to raise his profile in Clare.

    I’ll be surprised if Karlene Maywald loses Chaffey. She only needs to poll 35 percent to get across the line with Labor and Greens preferences. Again, there could be some leakage from FF.

    I haven’t heard much about Flinders either. It could be a rogue seat.

    Another to watch for something out of left field is MacKillop. There is a massive local issue to do with the future of the Kimberly-Clark (KCA) operation in Millicent, which is under threat from dumped foreign goods. KCA is the region’s biggest employer. Although it’s a federal issue, independent candidate Darren O’Halloran has made it his cause. He works at KCA, is a member of the CFMEU and has the union’s endorsement. I don’t expect O’Halloran to win, but he should get past Labor on primaries and reduce the margin of shadow minister Mitch Williams significantly.

    Shameless plug: I’ll be commenting on country seats on Saturday night at http://ax.lv/1p and would appreciate receiving insider updates.

  12. chinda63

    Dio – what’s the bet The Advertiser run anti-Labor stories all week and then at the eleventh hour endorse them to govern for another 4 years? 😉

  13. sykesie

    Someone from Waikerie supporting the liberals position on a new stadium … What a surprise!

  14. Diogenes

    chinda

    [Dio – what’s the bet The Advertiser run anti-Labor stories all week and then at the eleventh hour endorse them to govern for another 4 years? 😉 ]

    Bingo! (Except Greg Kelton who will continue his role as Rann’s media liason officer).

  15. Greensborough Growler

    Diogs,

    They’ll all be overwhelmed by the highly influential PB correspondent Diogenes and his unending hatred of Rann.

  16. Diogenes

    On the donkey vote

    [The conventional wisdom says about 1 per cent of the electorate wantonly numbers the candidates in ballot paper order,]

    If that is true (and I gather it is), it only constitutes a 0.5% swing to the donkey party as 1/2 of those votes would have gone to the donkey on average anyway.

    And there is a smaller reverse donkey vote which would further diminish the advantage of the donkey vote.

  17. Toorak Toff

    As a pretty average driver who has negotiated the Britannia roundabout something like 13,000 times without incident (touch wood!), I reckon it’s a paper tiger.

    Anyone who can’t handle it should give up driving or take another route.

    Traffic lights will clog the traffic. The Libs refuse to say how many significant trees will be felled under their plan.

  18. John

    Re donkey flips – 1% sounds like a very high figure to me. Is that really the conventional wisdom? Where does that come from?

    On an anecdotal basis I scrutineered for a party once in a state election where 7 candidates stood in my seat and no one’s HTV card said 1 through 7 in order. I watched 900 votes being counted and I reckon 2 were donkey votes (ie they went 1234567).

  19. ShowsOn

    [Diogs,

    They’ll all be overwhelmed by the highly influential PB correspondent Diogenes and his unending hatred of Rann.]
    G.G.,

    Last night you asked me for a link regarding the story that Phillips & Chantelois’ son Anton had been charged with assault. I recorded the repeat edition of 9 News and uploaded the story here:
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j-s_AyOd4kM

    He was charged with “aggravated assault” and “carrying and offensive weapon”.

    VexNews has stepped in with his take on the matter:
    http://www.vexnews.com/news/8615/family-of-menace-rick-phillips-and-michelle-chanteloiss-son-anton-phillips-charged-with-aggravated-assault-and-carrying-an-offensive-weapon/

  20. James Bodentown

    The informal vote is generally around 2.5-3% in South Australian elections.

    I’ve always heard this magical 1% figure. Where does the 1% donkey vote figure come from? Is the reverse donkey factored in to this?

    Surely a vast majority of the 2.5-3% aren’t donkey votes, rather they are deliberately informal protest votes going to noone, people who do not understand the voting system, first time voters, old people and ethnics?

    There could easily be a few hundred of these ^^ people, but I can’t see it being likely that 260 people in each electorate lodge a donkey vote.

  21. Greensborough Growler

    Shows On,

    Much appreciated.

  22. James Bodentown

    Just reread my post and realised that donkey votes aren’t even informal votes…

    But still, to the last question – do 250 odd people p/electorate really lodge a donkey vote? How is this figure formulated. I’ve scrutineered before and never seen a high enough donkey to justify 1% of the vote.

  23. spur212

    I think that’s a sensible prediction. The only seat I differ on is Frome as I think Brock can hold onto it (by a whisker).

  24. Psephos

    Whatever one thinks of Landeryou, his turn of phrase is often masterly:

    “Young Anton has had every advantage in life, attending the elite Adelaide private school St Peters College which owns significant chunks of Adelaide property and is the highest fee-charging school in the state. It has produced more Nobel laureates than any other school in Australia. It’s clear – as we’ll see – that Anton Phillips is not one of them.”

  25. ShowsOn

    I think Rann is going to jump all over the Eugene McGee verdict.
    [HIT-RUN lawyer Eugene McGee and his brother Craig have this morning been acquitted of conspiring to pervert the course of justice by a District Court judge.

    Judge Peter Herriman handed down his decision at 9.15am after deliberating for about three weeks.

    The verdict means the only penalty Eugene McGee will ever face for hitting and killing cyclist Ian Humphrey in 2003 – and then avoiding police while he returned to Adelaide – will be a $3100 fine for driving without due care.]
    http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/eugene-mcgee-and-craig-mcgee-found-not-guilty-of-conspiracy-over-kapunda-rd-hit-run/story-e6frea6u-1225841727209

    This could be an x-factor in the last days of the campaign.

    For those that don’t know, Eugene McGee was a high profile Adelaide defense lawyer.

  26. TheTruthHurts

    What about Adelaide?!?

  27. ShowsOn

    [THE son of Michelle Chantelois and Rick Phillips has appeared in court accused of assaulting a man with a spear and a variety of other weapons.

    Anton Michael Phillips-Chantelois, 20, allegedly committed the assault in the city on December 27 last year.

    He is alleged to have used a spear, a knife, a baseball bat and a hammer.]
    http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/chantelois-son-assaulted-man-with-spear/story-e6frea6u-1225841781175

  28. TheTruthHurts

    [THE son of Michelle Chantelois and Rick Phillips has appeared in court accused of assaulting a man with a spear and a variety of other weapons.]

    This is pure smear, why do you keep posting this junk.

    It’s completely unrelated to the happenings in South Australia and you know it. This is known as smear by association. What their 20 Year old son does should not reflect on the other family members.

  29. Bob Katter's Hat

    “fair and balanced”

    Hardly

    Bruce Hawker works for the Rann campaign office

  30. ShowsOn

    SNIP: Prejudicial comment about court case deleted – The Management.

  31. Psephos

    I never expected to see the words “Katter” and “balanced” in the same post.

  32. Gary Bruce

    [This is pure smear, why do you keep posting this junk.]
    Pure gold. LOL.

  33. Greensborough Growler

    Shows On,

    Understand the sentiment. However, charges against the younger man have not been proved. Just advising you temper your comments.

  34. ShowsOn

    Kelly Nestor:
    [You say you’ve got a strong team behind you, where are they?]
    Isobel Redmond:
    [They’re there…They’re not party hacks or trade unionists.]

  35. James Bodentown

    Kelly is being weak. She doesn’t know jack about sa politics. She has made a few mistakes in her questions, and not one of them has been hard. I wish pemby was doing the interview…

  36. ShowsOn

    Redmond says she is an agnostic. Doesn’t believe in virgin birth.

  37. James Bodentown

    Just lost votes in Hartley, Morialta and Newland

  38. ShowsOn

    Wow, now she is saying she is pro-euthanasia. She says she thinks her dying mother should’ve been “given a needle”.

  39. TheTruthHurts

    [I think Rann is going to jump all over the Eugene McGee verdict.]

    Who is the Premier of South Australia again?

  40. ShowsOn

    [Is Rann a Christian?]
    I’ve never heard him say anything religious. I think he is probably agnostic too.

    Redmond just said that she only found out yesterday that John Howard was coming to Adelaide today.

  41. James Bodentown

    Most pathetic interview I have ever seen. Was basically a 30 minutes long Liberal ad.

  42. ShowsOn

    There’s a big difference between reading a teleprompter and knowing how to conduct a political interview.

  43. Psephos

    Senator Birmingham is attacking Rann’s record on water management. This is tricky since the SA minister is a National.

  44. ShowsOn

    Wow, now Birmingham is effectively accusing the land tax, climate sceptics, and ICAC single issue LC candidates as being Labor front groups.

  45. Psephos

    Birmingham is going waaay over the top.

  46. ShowsOn

    Yeah, it says a lot when the following speech by Bob Brown contains less hyperbole.

  47. Psephos

    His tie is very hyperbolic however.

  48. Diogenes

    SO

    That McGee verdict absolutely sucks.

    A lot of people are going to be very pissed off about that.

    In SA, a lawyer and ex-policeman run someone over killing them and hide from the police, avoid the breatho, and get away with it.

    I hope the wife takes out a civil action against him.

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