The Courier Mail has published a poll of federal voting intention among Queensland voters, which shows the Liberal National Party leading 52-48 on two-party preferred compared with 50.4-49.6 in Labor’s favour at the 2007 election. The only primary vote figure we are given is 35 per cent for Labor, which compares with 42.9 per cent at the federal election (hopefully more detail will be forthcoming later, one way or another). If normal Galaxy practice was followed the poll would have had 800 respondents and a margin of error of about 3.5 per cent. A swing of that size would deliver the LNP Flynn and Longman, and allow it to retain Dickson, Herbert and Bowman (all notionally Labor after the redistribution) – if it was uniform, which it wouldn’t be. Labor-held Dawson and Leichhardt in far north Queensland are likely to swing above the state average, whereas Labor would presumably remain optimistic about Longman, and possibly also Coalition-held Dickson, Ryan and Hinkler. Geographic breakdowns from the poll would have been nice, although the sample sizes would probably be too small to give them much substance.

Other results from the poll:

• Two-thirds of respondents believe the government has done a bad job of explaining the resource super profits tax.

• Eighty per cent of respondents disapprove of taxpayer funds being used to fund the government’s advertising campaign, a question which basically amounts to a “kick me” sign attached to the government’s back.

• The Coalition leads 50 per cent to 42 per cent as best party to manage they economy, on which Newspoll gave Labor its first lead in modern memory in late March, just before its current troubles began.

• The Prime Minister is seen as in touch with everyday issues by 39 per cent, and “more talk than action” by 52 per cent.

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