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Federal Election 2010

Aug 17, 2010

Nielsen JWS Research marginals mega-poll (and Galaxy and Morgan)

The super-sample poll published by Fairfax, covering 22,000 voters in 54 seats (about 400 each), turns out to have been conducted not by Nielsen, but an outfit called JWS Research whose

The super-sample poll published by Fairfax, covering 22,000 voters in 54 seats (about 400 each), turns out to have been conducted not by Nielsen, but an outfit called JWS Research whose automated phone polling on the weekend were widely noted at the time. The Sydney Morning Herald sells its managing director John Scales as “a renowned pollster” who was director of Morgan from 1992 to 1995, and research director at Crosby Textor from 2002 until earlier this year. However, its methodology is untried, at least in the Australian context: presumably pollsters go to the expense of hiring interviewers for a very good reason (UPDATE: Lukas in comments points to the assessment of legendary US polling analyst Nate Silver, that “thereโ€™s not really convincing evidence about whether IVR polls [robopolls] are inferior to regular ones”). Nonetheless, the general tenor of the results is in keeping with polling overall, give or take a few surprises. Taken together, the results point to 79 seats for Labor and 68 for the Coalition with three independents – curiously, the poll did not cover Melbourne.

Queensland. Labor to lose Brisbane, Bonner, Petrie, Leichhardt, Forde, Dawson, Flynn and Dickson, but hold Moreton, Longman and Herbert.

New South Wales. Labor to lose Lindsay, Bennelong, Macarthur and Robertson while gaining Paterson and Cowper; Labor to hold Greenway, Dobell, Page, Eden-Monaro, Gilmore and Macquarie.

Victoria. Labor to gain McEwen, La Trobe and Dunkley, but lose Corangamite.

Elsewhere. Labor to gain Boothby, lose Hasluck and Swan, and hold Solomon.

We also have Galaxy polling another 800 voters in four Queensland marginals – Bonner, Forde, Herbert and Longman – and found happier results for Labor than the Queensland sample from the weekend’s super-survey, with a swing of 3.5 per cent rather than 5.4 per cent. Morgan has also published small-sample polls from Bennelong (300) and La Trobe (200) conducted just this evening, which respectively have the Liberals leading 50.5-49.5 and Labor leading 53-47.

UPDATE: And now state-by-state breakdowns from the past two weeks of Newspoll, both of which had the national result at 52-48. The state two-party are results are 52-48 to Labor in New South Wales (a 1.7 per cent swing), 52-48 to the Coalition in Queensland (2.4 per cent swing), 55-45 to Labor in Victoria (0.7 per cent swing to Labor), 56-44 to Labor in South Australia (3.6 per cent swing to Labor) and 57-43 to the Coalition in Western Australia (3.7 per cent swing to the Coalition).

UPDATE 2: Recent state-level polling results in terms of Labor swing:

TOTAL NSW VIC Qld WA SA
JWS Research -1.1 -2.1 2.4 -5.3 -0.5 -1.6
Galaxy marginals -1.7 -3.1 1.6 -4.3 -2.1 0.0
Newspoll (2 week) -0.7 -1.7 0.7 -2.4 -3.7 3.6
Nielsen (2 week) -1.7 -2.7 3.0 -3.4 -2.7 0.6
Essential (2 week) -1.7 -5.7 0.7 -3.4 0.3 1.6

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3759 comments

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Paul_J
Guest

Looks a lot better for Jules now she has gotten the town hall out of the way. Did she perform better or was it a case of 2nd up wins?

I’m no where as optimistic as you guys of a win and have had a bad feeling about it for 3 weeks now regardless of the polling due mainly to the biased MSM and the difficulty selling something that didn’t happen as an achievement. The bright spot for me though is the amount of young women who will vote for Julia. I’m still at nearly 100% labor yes with women under 30 in western Sydney. I ask them about their friends and they say most of them are voting for Julia as well. A woman told me last night she believed some conservative types will vote for her secretly purely based on gender.

My rigid right wing mates wife will vote for Gillard much to his disgust and so will her friends and this is in Lindsay as are a lot of the women who I have spoken to. My assesment after spending a month probing and haranging people in the west here is there is dissapointment about Rudd but they are generally over it and ones who arn’t are going to vote for the greens as they dislike Abbott. My entire family are voting for the greens except for me, even the right voter and swinging voters are as well.

PS: My wife has only just realised Abbott is a creep and that came about after she watched an add that quoted one of his misogynistic remarks.

steam driven interwebs
Guest
steam driven interwebs

sorry “front page” referred to their web front page

Radguy
Guest

I don’t remember the last time I bought a paper. It’s not a young person thing to do.
I click occasional links here. They usually put me off them even more.
We should be careful though, strong competition and high quality journalism are important for balanced news reporting. 1% beats 0% good journalism any day.

steam driven interwebs
Guest
steam driven interwebs

Debt Debt Debt Debt Debt Debt Debt Debt Debt Debt Debt Debt Debt Debt Debt Debt Debt Debt Debt Debt Debt Debt Debt Debt Debt Debt Debt Debt Debt Debt Debt Debt Debt Debt

this constant mantra make me sick to the stomach

If I had a company with turnover $1,000,000 a year, I earned $300,000 revenue, and then borrowed $40,000 to update my server/workstations? would any half decent (brain-dead) businessman (typical lib voter) say I was getting in over my head???? sheer madness.

steam driven interwebs
Guest
steam driven interwebs

notice how the insipid fairfax doesn’t even have that on it’s front page (jules winning) but rather has the bold headline “Abbott’s Debt Pledge” sickening!

Radguy
Guest

[vote loss to Greens by there cynical popularism & carping OFF Labor polisys to steal Labor primarys]
Ooh vicious Ron. You can turn a phrase.
That’s the spirit!
Yes I am a cynic.

steam driven interwebs
Guest
steam driven interwebs

[ What happened at the queensland townhall meet? jules survived it unscathed?

She wowed them ๐Ÿ™‚

http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/08/18/2986841.htm ]

Oh good, at least the meme “she didn’t lose” will be in the media tomorrow => best case scenario. If the rabid rabbott had won by 1 vote it would be plastered WALL-to-WALL all over the MSM:
phew, jules is in ๐Ÿ˜€

Radguy
Guest

Julia has carried her party fairly well.

holycow1
Guest

it’s one thing to fight for a cause. it’s another thing to martyr the whole party and government!

Ron
Guest
Barbeque Bill “That this government today is yet to convince a VERY LARGE proportion of the population that their Stimulus package was for the good of the nation, and not just a waste and debt binge, is a testament to how badly the Labor Geniuses who run campaigns and politics inside the party have fared.” over 50% 2PPT will vote Labor on 21/8 , so obvous punters beleive Labor , if they beleived your words ie Abbotts words quote “a waste and debt binge” then Liberals would hav bolted in Record Labor win is approx 53.5% , so at worst we down with present 52% is 1.5% , and it is that % we is down by , and no more 9and not your vastest majority you’ve bought same nonsense narative as Greens and toffy Journo’s like Hartcher & Laurie Oakes that Labor did not “sell” well Who was PM for 2.5 yrs when GFC occurred , insulation scheme and BER done….Kevin Rudd soo its all Kevin’s fault …no !! (Who were th then Senior minsiters Tanner , Gillard , Swan Wong , its there secondary fault plus Kevin’s primary faukt…no !) ‘selling ‘ involves salesmen to customer , and in politcs there is a middlemen (MSN) to “pass on” Labor salesmens message to buyers voters there IS a failure to communicate allrite , but that is because middlemen (MSN) “unsell” Labors selling messages by un report , mis report , distort report , incompetant report , or just plain old fashioned cap report…and IT IS has cost Labor 1.5% off its 2 PPT (with remain 5% Labor primary vote loss to Greens by there cynical popularism & carping OFF Labor polisys to steal Labor primarys that th SAME MSN never do expose either) Is Labor govt entrie innocent , no , kicked some own goals and some salesmens not as good as Hawkie , but we talking at margins because BER was fact a great success , and BOTH Kevin (with Julia as D/pm defended rort/waste claims strongly in Hor , in Pressers , on current affairs listen to Prof Stigler on waste as he said same as Kevin and Julai , wwte you get waste with or w/out a focused Stimili , except with a Stimili you get less much much less ‘waste’ , and as our oz Stimili best focued in Workld we had even less ‘waste’… Read more ยป
Frank Calabrese
Guest

Steam driven Interweb@3746

What happened at the queensland townhall meet? jules survived it unscathed?

She wowed them ๐Ÿ™‚

 http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/08/18/2986841.htm 

holycow1
Guest

i’m not worried about the technology. it’s the politics of the issue that’s the big concern!

steam driven interwebs
Guest
steam driven interwebs

What happened at the queensland townhall meet? jules survived it unscathed?

holycow1
Guest

so if gillard is pm after 21/08, if she does go down the ets or carbon tax path, would she be willing to possibly sacrifice her government for said issue?

Radguy
Guest

Holycow, solar technology for mining and mineral processing hasn’t even begun yet. It will be huge.
You need to have more faith in scientists, engineers, inventors and others.
We can do this the green way.

holycow1
Guest

and gillard would also have to deal with her own party

holycow1
Guest

remains to be seen the consequences of passing an ets will be in the next parliament.

unless its a bipartisan approach, not only will labor have to deal with the opposition, they’ll have to deal with the mining companies AND all the other carbon intensive polluting industries at the next election.

Radguy
Guest

Don’t take that as a put off Ron, if you are who you say you are, I have seen considerable improvement.

holycow1
Guest

and its still evident that they’re trying to make sense of it given the shenanigans over the past few weeks, and the seemingly sole reliance on gillard as the government’s salesperson.

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