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Morgan: 51-49 to Coalition in Victoria

A Morgan phone poll has provided further evidence of a late shift to the Coalition to add to that from Galaxy, recording a 5

A Morgan phone poll has provided further evidence of a late shift to the Coalition to add to that from Galaxy, recording a 51-49 lead to the Coalition which as far as I can tell is the first time they have led in a poll since early 2005. Morgan sceptics should note that there is no reason to believe their phone polls are any less reliable than anyone else’s. The sample is 990, which is superficially highly respectable but seems to include the 327 respondents from the inner-city poll published earlier in the week – if so the margin-of-error is between 3.5 and 4 per cent. The poll has the Coalition leading on the primary vote 44.5 per cent to 35.5 per cent with the Greens on 13 per cent, their weakest showing of any poll in the campaign. John Brumby’s lead as preferred premier has narrowed to 43.5-39, and he has crashed to a minus 12.5 per cent personal rating with 34 per cent approval and 46.5 per cent disapproval. Ted Baillieu is on 40 per cent approval and 39 per cent disapproval.

You can read my final review of the situation in Crikey.

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148 comments

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Dr Fumbles McStupid
Guest

Blimey, if it is 48-52 to Lib then it is pretty much all over.

Dr Fumbles McStupid
Guest

tsop

I had the exact same vibe this arvo just before the morgan poll came out, real strong feeling that there will be huge changes on Monday and moment of quite notable depression, given I am a public servant and been doing all the election PIAPs and other excitement it was a very big surprise to a rational person.

Gary Sparrow
Guest

Re: Nielsen Poll (Victoria)

Two Party Preferred: Labor 48 (-4) Coalition (+4) 52

If those figures are replicated tomorrow = Premier Baillieu πŸ™‚

Rocket Rocket
Guest

gwv must mean Lab 48 – Coalition 52 on Nielsen – Big Ted !!

castle
Guest

[Rocket a drovers dog could win Crook’s seat at the next Federal election ]

probably what the libs also think of Windsor and Oakeshotts seats too and maybe even Katters seeing as how he has voted with labor, but we will see.

Maybe the people will realise the benefit of having Crook representing their interests instead of some self lubricating piece of vermin like Tuckey.

Rocket Rocket
Guest

Glen

O’Connor 2010 – Tuckey 38.4, Crook 28.9, Labor 17.1, Green 8.9
Final TCP – Crook 53.6 to Tuckey 46.4

If Labor preference Crook again surely he has a good chance?

victoria
Guest

Frank Calabrese

tu sei molto cativo πŸ™‚

Frank Calabrese
Guest

[victoriaPosted Friday, November 26, 2010 at 9:27 pm | Permalinkcentaur009/George
scusa non capice?
]

Cazzie Grece Shemi πŸ™‚

victoria
Guest

tsop

good grief. what happened to your analytical approach?

GhostWhoVotes
Guest

Nielsen Poll (Victoria)

Two Party Preferred: Labor 48 (-4) Coalition (+4)

Rational Leftist
Guest

Totally unscientific here, so don’t put too much stock into it but I voice inside my head is telling me that Victoria will have a new Premier soon.

As I said, it’s just a gut thing, no science behind it, so don’t celebrate or despair too much on those words.

victoria
Guest

centaur009/George

scusa non capice?

Gary Sparrow
Guest

Rocket a drovers dog could win Crook’s seat at the next Federal election providing that Liberal isnts one W. Tuckey

george
Guest

[Toso mialo ihane!!!]

πŸ˜†

Rocket Rocket
Guest

castle 129
[if the Nats had stopped being little happy to please puppies to the libs and representative of their constituents]
I think this is true throughout Australia – and the Libs are slowly gnawing away at their erstwhile “partners” by slowly winning seats in 3-cornered contests when Nats retire. Crook has I supposed got one “back” – but really the story of the Nats over the last 40 years has been caving in to the Libs and going backwards because (or in spite) of it.

centaur009
Guest

Toso mialo ihane!!!

victoria
Guest

centaur009

I am pretty sure my Greek friends served me Turkish coffee, and then did readings of the silt in the cup. They never called it Greek coffee

george
Guest

[If George is an insider then how can you believe a word?]

One thing “believing” in someone’s opinion Glen, another in reading horsesh*t πŸ˜‰

castle
Guest

[I think ALP will form government in its own right.]

I wouldn’t mind greens/ independent holding balance like in Tas, ACT and federal, keeps them accountable and honest. Even the WA govt have found they can’t rely on their partners to pass everything.

A true coalition/ partnership becomes more representative and accountable to the people, if the Nats had stopped being little happy to please puppies to the libs and representative of their constituents then they may have not lost so many seats to independents labor and libs. Too late now, though Crook may reverse the trend.

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