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Morgan: 51-49 to Coalition in Victoria

A Morgan phone poll has provided further evidence of a late shift to the Coalition to add to that from Galaxy, recording a 5

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A Morgan phone poll has provided further evidence of a late shift to the Coalition to add to that from Galaxy, recording a 51-49 lead to the Coalition which as far as I can tell is the first time they have led in a poll since early 2005. Morgan sceptics should note that there is no reason to believe their phone polls are any less reliable than anyone else’s. The sample is 990, which is superficially highly respectable but seems to include the 327 respondents from the inner-city poll published earlier in the week – if so the margin-of-error is between 3.5 and 4 per cent. The poll has the Coalition leading on the primary vote 44.5 per cent to 35.5 per cent with the Greens on 13 per cent, their weakest showing of any poll in the campaign. John Brumby’s lead as preferred premier has narrowed to 43.5-39, and he has crashed to a minus 12.5 per cent personal rating with 34 per cent approval and 46.5 per cent disapproval. Ted Baillieu is on 40 per cent approval and 39 per cent disapproval.

You can read my final review of the situation in Crikey.

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148 comments

148 thoughts on “Morgan: 51-49 to Coalition in Victoria

  1. Ron

    on those Galaxy 50/50 polls and even Morgon Poll , there is not 12 seats there for Liberals to win , and miost needed in Melb , no Balleau needs 52/48 and not got that even on trends

  2. Ron

    i think these polls got alot of rural anti labor votes in it due to MRB , n/s pipes , desal & trains but aint lot of labor seats to lose , maybe in geelong yonders & Bendigo east most obvous so thats why think 52/48 needed

  3. hughie

    Even if the Coalition wins a majority of the 2PP (which I doubt), experience in most other states suggests that the conservatives need a two-election process in order to win (WA being the exception to the rule):

    NSW – 2007, 2011
    QLD – 2009, 2012
    SA – 2010, 2014

    …so presumably the Coalition will run close tomorrow on the statewide 2PP, but the swings will be in the wrong place, i.e. non-marginal seats on either side of the pendulum, just like in SA earlier this year.

    After that the buyer’s remorse will kick in – look at how NSW Labor nosedived in mid-08 in the polls, and how QLD Labor has done the same since their last election, thus condemning them to a rout the next time.

    So, Brumby wins another term – narrowly – and then a moderately-sized Coalition win in 2014, if all things are taken as being equal.

  4. Glen

    Ron given what a pathetic opposition the Libs are the fact that they are equal/just ahead in the polls is pretty damning of the ALP.

    Election night should be a cracker!

  5. dgh1

    I get the feeling of a bit of a south Australian result here – lots of swings where it doesn’t help the Coalition with a couple of seats going to independents or Greens in the metro area. Could be an interesting evening. The Morgan and Galaxy figures are probably not quite enough to get a change of government.

  6. Ron

    William bowe

    “Morgan sceptics should note that there is no reason to believe their phone polls are any less reliable than anyone else’s. ”

    seems everyone beleives you , and is wobbly scared Labor will ose cause of morgon poll , i’m not for above reasons said

    but morgan includes 327 inner voters which is not represent of vic voters , tho he’s not clear on that either way to my readings , but where IS indication by him in his notes that thats 327 is def in his 990 poled and vip has been weighted & how

  7. itsthevibe

    *waits for Baillieu to say “I hope it’s right, but I think Morgan is on drugs”*

  8. Rocket Rocket

    I started the campaign thinking Labor would win minority govt, then a small majority, then back to minority.

    Last night I felt it would be Labor 42, Green 2, Ind 1, Coalition 43.

    Which would be identical to 1999 and make the Greens kingmakers in both houses.

    flemingtonsportsbet still have Labor at 1-18 and Coalition at 4-75. Get on now!

  9. madcyril

    [
    I started the campaign thinking Labor would win minority govt, then a small majority, then back to minority
    ]

    I think I’ve charted a similar course 😆

  10. 1934pc

    Tell them their dreaming!.

  11. Charles Richardson

    “The sample is 990, which … seems to include the 327 respondents from the inner-city poll published earlier in the week” – if 4.5% of the seats account for a third of the sample, then there’s something pretty seriously wrong. You don’t have to be a Morgan sceptic to see that.

  12. Dagget

    In any case I reckon this will be a grand test of the betting markets v polls v final outcome.

  13. evan14

    We’re getting used to these cliffhanger nail biter election results, although I suspect that NSW in March 2011 will break the pattern rather significantly.
    It doesn’t say much for Brumby’s campaign if he’s having trouble closing out a tosser like Bailieu.

  14. Diogenes

    Hughie

    You can add SA to that list who have nosedived in the polls post election.

  15. Gary

    [Ron given what a pathetic opposition the Libs are the fact that they are equal/just ahead in the polls is pretty damning of the ALP.]
    [It doesn’t say much for Brumby’s campaign if he’s having trouble closing out a tosser like Bailieu.]
    I disagree with these comments. The fact is Labor have had some awful problems in the last 3 years. The fact they’re still in it is the remarkable thing. I still think they will get back in with a reduced majority.

  16. Gary

    The Liberals’ advertising campaign in those last few days on TV were both massive in quantity and effective I believe.

  17. madcyril

    I think that for an 11 year old government, that has already had one change of leadership, it’s a minor miracle that Labor are still in with a chance. Howie couldn’t manage more than 11 years 😆

  18. dovif

    Ron

    For the Whole Federal Poll, Morgan had the ALP about 2% higher than where they were, and was found to be wrong by 2%

  19. Dagget

    It is a great acheivement for the ALP to be as competitive at this stage. The challenges of the last term would have sunk a lesser Govt. I do belive that they wont win the next one though, which is a bit of a shame as all the hard work has been done this term.

  20. damian

    Footscray residents getting ridiculous amounts of pro Labor and anti Green pamphlets. Sounds like there is some polling that is worrying the ALP there.

    Same in Albert Park, with anonymous attacks on Greens and independent, with barely a Liberal campaign. two seats that might have a denison like result.

  21. Libs like Pike

    We can be allies in the hung Parliament GG. Truce?

  22. Geoff Robinson

    Albert Park martin Foley has a Tanneresque appeal to lefties and looks secure but Marsha Thompson….well

  23. Rod Hagen

    One thing seems abundantly clear. Both Labor and The Greens have to learn how to live with each other, remember that the primary enemy really lies elsewhere, and work out real strategies that don’t produce a situation where they spend far more time fighting each other than fighting the conservatives.

    Yes, no doubt if the worst comes to the worst they will both blame the other, but even if the worst doesn’t arrive (and hopefully it won’t) it provides a salutary lesson for both parties. The sort of silly games we have seen over the last few weeks genuinely risk government, not just the odd seat here or there.

  24. Gary

    Ted may have cost himself a shot at government with his stance on the Greens.

  25. Charles Richardson

    The other thing is that despite Morgan’s breathless headline, 51-49 probably wouldn’t be a Coalition win. It’s a 5.4% swing, which on a uniform basis is a gain of 11 seats, only taking them to 43.

  26. Glen

    WHy would anybody want to govern with the mellons?

  27. Rod Hagen

    [The other thing is that despite Morgan’s breathless headline, 51-49 probably wouldn’t be a Coalition win. It’s a 5.4% swing, which on a uniform basis is a gain of 11 seats, only taking them to 43.]

    It won’t be anything like a uniform swing, Charles. It will be all over the place. Where will it end? Toss a coin.

  28. Gary

    I just received a recorded phone message from a female on behalf of the local Lib candidate. If there is one way to get people to vote against you, that’s it.

  29. Rod Hagen

    [WHy would anybody want to govern with the mellons?]

    Still trying the same play, Glen? It has worked so far, so who can blame you, I guess, but I rather suspect that Labor would prefer to be in government rather than opposition if it comes to that, and if the ultimate decision is down to The Greens then they would completely destroy themselves if they opted for the Libs.

  30. deblonay

    If Brumby goes down it will be seen as the result of the three “M’s”..the disaster of Myki….the stupid e-Meter scheme(also B-for-Batchelor)and finally the M for Mad Madden and his endless confrontation with community groups,and his liking for the developers…
    In today’s Morgan poll the big drop in Brumby’s personal support is very telling…and seems to be a forecast of what’s to come.tomorrow…

  31. Andrew

    I think a major issue is the failure to directly confront the waste/incompetance theme that the state Libs have cleverly borrowed from their federal counterparts. The polls were 57/43 last year despite the Myki, e-meter and other issues

  32. Bob Katter's Hat

    Victoria’s political cycle today is where NSW was at in 2007 & QLD in 2009

    New leaders wanting their first own win, leading old in the tooth governments rapidly approaching their use-by-date but with no effective opposition to replace them

    If Brumby wins tomorrow – I’d expect him to end up like Iemma (& soon to be Bligh) and gone by 2012 as the government implodes from within

    Best thing for Victoria would be a Ballieu victory before the “one election win too many” scenario kicks in and cripples Victoria like it has NSW & QLD

  33. Rocket Rocket

    Gary 25
    [Ted may have cost himself a shot at government with his stance on the Greens.]
    If the Coalition win, his stance on the Greens will come to be seen as the reason they won.
    Which will then embolden all Coalition parties in Australia to copy this stance.

  34. Diogenes

    What was the last election when the result was known on the night? I think it must have been Kevin07. I don’t think there has been a concession-claim on the night since then.

  35. Diogenes

    deblonay

    [In today’s Morgan poll the big drop in Brumby’s personal support is very telling…and seems to be a forecast of what’s to come.tomorrow…]

    Rann’s were much worse and he still got back in.

  36. blackburnpseph

    Gary @ 25

    Maybe just the opposite. The Libs owe the Greens nothing as they get zip from the Greens. It is better politics for the Libs not to play footsie with them. The air is clear. The Libs are still in the position however where they can mess with the heads of both Labor and the ALP.

  37. Diogenes

    JJ

    Ah yes, that one was over fairly quickly. I don’t think NT, WA, SA, Tassie or Fed 10 were sure on the night and tomorrow could easily join that group.

  38. blackburnpseph

    I wonder if this election will be the end of the Greens having the silly ‘non leader’ model. It really hurts their ability to get a message across. If they do get some lower house MPs up, there might be a bit of demand to have the focus concentrated on the lower house – that would upset Greg Barber!

  39. blackburnpseph

    The Libs getting a majority in the Legislative Council is a possibility if they get the vote to 50 or 51 – even they don’t win. 3 each in the 3 country regions plus 3 in Eastern and Southern metro and 2 in the rest gives 21.

  40. Rocket Rocket

    blackburnpseph

    It will be interesting to see if any of the Greens material tomorrow in the “Eastern Victoria Region” features pictures of all their Upper House candidates with Cheryl Wragg “removed” from the photos in that time-honored tradition!

  41. Bob Katter's Hat

    ABC24 just now:

    Final JWS Research poll

    “Most probable scenario … 1) a coalition victory, 2) outside possibility of a hung parliament, 3) little chance of ALP majority”

    More details later ……..

  42. Gary

    How accurate was the JWS Research poll last federal election?

  43. Rod Hagen

    [If Brumby goes down it will be seen as the result of the three “M’s”..the disaster of Myki….the stupid e-Meter scheme(also B-for-Batchelor)and finally the M for Mad Madden and his endless confrontation with community groups,and his liking for the developers…
    In today’s Morgan poll the big drop in Brumby’s personal support is very telling…and seems to be a forecast of what’s to come.tomorrow…]

    No , deblonay. If Baillieu gets up it will be seen as a result of childish approaches to politics by some Greens and of ridiculous attacks by Labor on many who would normally be its supporters. It will go down as the election that Baillieu should never have had a chance of winning, but did, because, encouraged by the Libs, the other parties took their eye off the ball.

  44. Diogenes

    Gary

    It did even worse than we did. Predicted Labor winning 79 seats.

  45. Gary

    [Gary

    It did even worse than we did. Predicted Labor winning 79 seats.]
    Well if it’s predicting a Lib win tomorrow then your info makes me feel better Dio.

  46. Rocket Rocket

    Rod 24

    Labor has been trying very hard to win enough lower house seats to govern, against stiff opposition from the Liberals and the Greens.

    The Greens have been trying very hard to win lower house seats off Labor.

    When the Greens put similar efforts into Liberal-held seats, your statement
    [the primary enemy really lies elsewhere]
    might carry some weight.

  47. Tom the first and best

    40

    The Greens had only 3 MLCs in the recently expired Parliament and were thus too small for official party status (10 in the Victorian Parliament) and thus there could not have been an official leader. The Greens with the balance of power in the Council might be able to get the number of MPs for party status reduced to 5 (the requirement in Commonwealth and WA Parliaments). The Liberal preference decision means that the Greens have little chance of getting the 10 currently needed for official party status.

  48. Gary

    This is very strange. The polls show the Libs in with a real chance but the betting markets give them little chance. You could make a fortune Bob Hatter’s Kat.

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