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NSW Politics

Jan 22, 2011

Galaxy: 66-34 to Coalition in NSW

I don't have comprehensive data to hand, but I believe NSW Labor has recorded the worst opinion poll result in Australian history. The Galaxy Research survey of 800 respondents (margin

I don’t have comprehensive data to hand, but I believe NSW Labor has recorded the worst opinion poll result in Australian history. The Galaxy Research survey of 800 respondents (margin of error about 3.5 per cent) has Labor’s primary vote on 20 per cent (yes, 20 per cent), just five points clear of the Greens. With 51 per cent, the Coalition can make a rare claim to an absolute majority of the primary vote. On two-party preferred, the Coalition has an (I think) unprecedented lead of 66-34, pointing to a swing of over 18 per cent – which if uniform would reduce Labor to about 14 seats out of 93. Though in fact it’s actually worse than that, as optional preferential voting would further starve Labor of Greens preferences.

On top of that, Kristina Keneally’s personal ratings are not what they used to be: she has an approval rating of 30 per cent and a disapproval rating of 62 per cent, putting her in the same sort of territory as Anna Bligh (though we could maybe do with an update on that one). Barry O’Farrell on the other hand would appear to be benefiting from the comparison: he has 53 per cent approval and 33 per cent approval. O’Farrell has a 54-32 lead as preferred premier, which is about as good as it gets for an opposition leader.

Full results from GhostWhoVotes.

UPDATE: I see that Galaxy have asked Greens voters what if anything they will do with their preferences, finding 55 per cent will direct them but 44 per cent will just vote one. This appears to be hardly different from the last election, when about 40 per cent of Greens votes exhausted. However, a) the sample of Greens voters is very small (about 120), and b) the 55 per cent figure presumably includes some who will number more than one box without passing a preference on to either major party.

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201 comments

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Utopia
Guest

These were not word for word but my recollection of her words by the way!

Utopia
Guest
You gotta give credit where credit is due- KK today: 1. We all know governments are never elected on their record 2. I recognise there is a movement for change….thats why I have changed the ALP 3. The Opposition have had 16 years to come up with a manifesto (to preempt the you have had 16 years to govern what have you done) 4. NSW ALP has been the standout economic manager 5. I’m sorry Wonderful mixed messages, internal contradictions and master spin- all with a broad smile! Will the ALP primary vote hit the teens in any polling before… Read more »
dovif
Guest

Gusface

Did they tell you the ship you are on is unsinkable, the S.S. Titanic?

Are the pollsters even going to bother with polling the NSW election, we have not even had a poll yet!!!

Utopia
Guest

[Mod

I intend to go down with the ship

if it goes down, that is]

You know Gus, perhaps Hawkie is playing a game of reverse psychology here- telling people Labor cant win so enough feel sorry for them and vote Labor???

Then KK chimes in with a “sorry”, perhaps all NSW needed to hear (“heading in the right direction” being taken and all)

It could work…actually, no.

They should hope to save 20 though.

gusface
Guest

Mod

I intend to go down with the ship

if it goes down, that is

👿

Utopia
Guest

…by the way… where is GG?

Utopia
Guest

BREAKING NEWS:

Bob Hawke doesn’t think the NSW ALP can win.

…better tell Gus and Green Growler, they don’t seem to have got it yet.

gusface
Guest

EMRS are in the field

state polling + 1 flood levy,1 nbn

dgh1
Guest

The NSW election campaign is about to get underway this weekend with a major speech by the Premier.

can you imagine it? 50 days of campaigning?

Perhaps the ALP is going to try and bore the electorate into changing their vote.

Mick Quinlivan
Guest

@191…… don’t agree with everything you say… but this is an intelligent post interesting cf to
sa 1993… double the seats of that election result and get similar to what the opinion polls are suggesting for nsw

Independently Thinking
Guest
Independently Thinking
From the safe, somnambulent suburbs of Adelaide, I have been witness through the eyes and ears of the internet, and my best friend in Sydney, of the unnatural disaster that is the NSW Labor Government. My friend, who is an expat Croweater and part time psephologist, cannot understand how it all went so wrong, but she experiences incompetence and indifference in the state public service; a completely un-integrated and unwieldy public transport system; notices deteriorated and out of date infrastructure; and says her work colleagues are ashamed of their government. Of course, these are generalisations, but the her perception as… Read more »
Mick Quinlivan
Guest

@188 please translate!

gusface
Guest

OC

Ha

its dovglish

dovif
Guest

Oakshott It must bee killiung u that your belooved ALP is so imcompetant and corrupt so I campletely uhnderstand why you have nothing tosay

Oakeshott Country
Guest

Do you mean campaign or complain? – or is this a portmanteau of the two.

James J
Guest
dovif
Guest

http://www.thepunch.com.au/articles/nsw-govt-sins/

Come to think of it, I will also miss this NSW government, I will need to find something else to compaign about

blackburnpseph
Guest
One positive task for whoever wins the next NSW election should be upper house reform. Agree with Oakeshott that politicians should be reponsible to a local electorate. The Vic Upper House system works well, there are defined regions, terms are the same as the lower house, and there is the possibility that the larger smaller (apologies for the apparent oxymoron but couldn’t find a better way of putting it) parties such as the Greens can get a guernsey from the voters. 5 or 7 member electorates relating back to lower house seats. No more table cloth ballot papers or sectional… Read more »
Oakeshott Country
Guest
No. They, together with Costa and Della Bosca, are a good reason for upper house reform – I personally favour abolition but making politicians responsible to a local electorate is also preferable to the current situation. Interestingly, despite their power within the party, Costa, Della and Roozendaal were all rebuffed by local branches when they were sniffing around for an LA electorate. Della was even talking about being premier from the Council when all his other options closed. The only one to get a jacket is John Robertson, of whom Keating was “ashamed to share membership of the same party”.… Read more »
Socrates
Guest

Another unflattering story in the SMH: the Australian Services Union wants Eric Roozendaal dumped from the no.1 position on the NSW State upper house ticket.
http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/another-union-boss-dumps-on-state-labor-20110130-1a9pm.html

Hard to have much sympathy for any of this crew at this point. Keatings remarks about the Senate seem apt. Could Roozendaal or Obeid ever win a lower house seat?

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