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Victorian By-Elections

Feb 19, 2011

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Primary
%
Swing
2PP
%
Frank McGuire (ALP) 10516 51.0% -11.8% 10215 74.4%
Graham Dawson (GRN) 1227 5.9% -1.4% 3523 25.6%
Mark Hobart (DLP) 1180 5.7%
Merinda Davis (SEX) 1139 5.5%
Celal Sahin (IND) 4758 23.1%
Other Independents 1804 8.7%
Total 20624 13738
Informal 2216 9.7%
Counted (% of enrolled) 54.7% 36.4%
Booths counted (out of 13) 13 10

8.24pm. He also notes that Sahin ran McGuire close in Meadow Heights: 40 per cent to 37 per cent.

8.23pm. Antony Green reckons final turnout will be 76 per cent, which isn’t that unusual.

8.22pm. Meadow Heights added, so all the polling booths are in. Pre-polls and some of the postals will also be added this evening.

8.12pm. Roxburgh Homestead and Campbellfield added; only Meadow Heights to come.

8.01pm. Three booths added on meaningless Labor-versus-Greens two-party count.

8.00pm. Antony Green projects 67.1 per cent versus 31.9 per cent result for Labor versus Sahin on the final count.

7.58pm. GhostWhoVotes notes Sahin won the Upfield booth with 49.5 per cent primary vote.

7.56pm. Hume Central and Upfield booths added. By popular demand, Celal Sahin’s vote is now recorded separately in table. Psephos in comments notes Sahin has obviously harnessed the support of the electorate’s considerable Turkish community.

7.46pm. Independent Celal Sahin is easily the best performing non-Labor candidate on 17.8 per cent, and will finish far ahead of the Greens who are neck and neck with two other independents for third. So the notional two-party figures are purely a measure of the relative support for Labor and the Greens, not how the result will look after final distribution of preferences.

7.44pm. Lineball as to whether the Greens vote will be up and down. Not too big a shock: they also went nowhere in the Altona by-election.

7.43pm. Bethal, Broadmeadows North and Roxburgh Park primary vote results confirm the general trend, although the informal vote is back down to single figures.

7.41pm. I’ve added a row for the informal vote to my table, which is a very high 10.7 per cent from the five booths counted.

7.38pm. Two-party results from Glenroy East and Gowrie Park added, showing Labor with a thumping 81.8-18.2 lead over the Greens – but it’s by no means clear the Greens will in fact finish second, so this is as much a measure of their weak show as anything.

7.36pm. Broadmeadows, Coolaroo and Glenroy East booths added: Labor down quite sharply on the primary vote, further concerning for them with the informal vote is taken into account. Still a clear win on the primary vote however.

7.34pm. Antony Green points to high informal rate: 12.1 per cent.

7.30pm. Basically Labor took a big hit in their extremely strong Gowrie Park booth, but there was little change in weaker Glenroy North (which I have combined with the Glenroy booth, which is not in use at this by-election).

7.28pm. I’d made an error there on my swing calculations: Labor and the Greens are in fact both down, by 6.6 per cent and 1.3 per cent respectively.

7.24pm. To cut a long story short, Frank McGuire has won. Both Labor and Greens are up slightly, but the Greens trail the Sex Party and two independents.

7.22pm. Glenroy North and Gowrie Park have reported: results added.

7.20pm. “Not the most exciting by-election count I’ve covered” – Antony Green.

7.16pm. That same someone reports the Greens vote is down in Glenroy North: from 11 per cent to 8.2 per cent.

7.13pm. Taking their time. Someone on Twitter reports: “Labor’s @Frank_McGuire wins on primary at Glenroy Nth”.

6pm. Polls have closed in the Broadmeadows by-election, which is basically an exercise to rubber-stamp the entry into parliament of Labor candidate Frank McGuire. First results should be in at about 6:45pm. The above table shows the raw primary vote and percentage; booth-adjusted primary vote swing results, which match the available booth results against the equivalent from the November state election; and a raw two-candidate preferred figure, which assumes the Greens will finish second.

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106 comments

106 thoughts on “Broadmeadows by-election live

  1. Big Blind Dave

    I have a box of cheezels and a six pack of UDL. its a sex vs dlp race for me tonite.

  2. Toorak Toff

    One shouldn’t count one’s chickens, but this may be the last ALP win for a long time.

  3. Big Blind Dave

    unless someone else steps down from a safe seat somewhere, like Fremantle for examp….no, scratch that

  4. Rod Hagen

    I’m worried about just how long the edge of this seat will survive!…..

  5. Rod Hagen

    [I have a box of cheezels and a six pack of UDL.]

    Did you consider two peanuts and a small shandy as a more economical alternative?

  6. Toorak Toff

    Well, Kevin Foley is not stepping down from Port Adelaide, just in case ….

  7. Gary

    [One shouldn’t count one’s chickens, but this may be the last ALP win for a long time.]
    You’re absolutely right. One shouldn’t coumt one’s chickens either now or in the future. Anything can happen.

  8. Big Blind Dave

    any other ALP candidate in Port Adelaide would lift thier margin

  9. madcyril

    [
    Did you consider two peanuts and a small shandy as a more economical alternative
    ]

    The Tony Abbott option?

  10. Tom the first and best

    10

    Only if it`s 60% lemonade!

  11. Big Blind Dave

    the internets equivalent to radios dead air here

  12. Toorak Toff

    Ted the Toff is like Julia – one heartbeat away from losing a parliamentary majority.

  13. Barking

    Come on, some guesses,
    Mine,
    ALP down a bit, not much
    Greens up to at least 10%
    Indies up a lot,
    DLP deposit back,
    Sex to beat the DLP

  14. Barking

    Oh and informals up and actual attendance down 2-5%

  15. MDMConnell

    The attempts by all sides to spin what will be the bleeding obvious (comfortable Labor win) will be more interesting than the actual results.

  16. Big Blind Dave

    i hope the ALP cop a larger than expected swing. The preselection was a public example of what is rotten about the Party structure in Vic and the hypocracy of the Vic left

  17. Psephos

    My spies tell me that Celal Sahin will come second.

  18. Barking

    Big Blind Dave

    I hope your half a dozen is still mainly intact!

  19. Psephos

    As predicted, Sahin is coming second. There are many more Turks than Greens in Broady. Most of them vote Labor, but there’s still enough left over to allow Sahin to beat the Greens.

  20. Big Blind Dave

    in relation to my last post, i hope the ALP actually win of course 😉

  21. MDMConnell

    Does Sahin have a base in the north of the electorate? Big result for him in Meadow heights and Broday itself….much weaker in Glenroy and Gowrie.

  22. Big Blind Dave

    Antony Green tweet #broadmeadows 5 first preference booths, Labor primary down 11% matched

  23. Psephos

    William’s table ought now to disaggregate and name the independents.
    This proves again that even when Labor is at a low ebb, working-class voters won’t vote Green.

  24. Psephos

    The Greens are only just beating the Sex Party. Sex is more popular than tofu in Broady.

  25. Big Blind Dave

    I agree Psephos r “even when Labor is at a low ebb, working-class voters won’t vote Green.” even the booth by booth in the Fremantle Bi-election that Greens won showed they couldnt win one of the working class booths for quids

  26. madcyril

    DLP currently beating the Greens and the Sex Party

  27. Big Blind Dave

    in other close results, GWS currently trailing the swans 59 to 3 mid way through second half

  28. Psephos

    The DLP is picking up those Liberals who have bothered to vote.

  29. Tom the first and best

    I presume that the events in the Middle East have had a negligible effect on his by-election.

  30. Psephos

    Yes Tom, the Likud vote has held steady on 0.00%. *Rolls eyes*

  31. steve

    IND Celal Sahin has finished ahead in the the Upfield booth

  32. Big Blind Dave

    on my last UDL, completely failed to time my evening correctly

  33. Psephos

    “Psephos in comments notes Sahin has obviously harnessed the support of the electorate’s considerable Turkish community.”

    No, only the minority of it that didn’t vote Labor.

  34. William Bowe

    Okay, scratch “the” and replace with “of” with “from”.

  35. Psephos

    If Labor had picked Burhan Yigit or another Turkish candidate, more Turks would have voted Labor, but more “others” would have voted for someone else. In a multi-ethnic seat like Broady, an Anglo candidate is often the least unacceptable to everyone.

  36. Big Blind Dave

    greens may not even finish third?

  37. Psephos

    There’s not many cultural studies lecturers and performance artists in Meadow Heights.

  38. Psephos

    Brumby’s 2PV was 71%, so if McGuire’s 2CV is 67% as Antony estimates, that’s a pretty good result in the circumstances, allowing for the general meaninglessness of by-elections in safe seats immediately after general elections.

  39. Big Blind Dave

    i can just see them sitting on the pergola in broady “hey dude I just voted for Eddie Maguire” “no you idiot it wasnt Eddie from the the footy show it was the other Maguire…you know from spiderman”

  40. Diogenes

    How similar is McGuire to his brother?

  41. Diogenes

    steve

    Has Eddie done any campaigning for him?

  42. mexicanbeemer

    Broady is an interesting seat for it was one of the few ALP held seats that actually saw a positive ALP swing in the 1992 State Election.

    I wonder if any seats next month in NSW will do a Broady of 92

  43. mexicanbeemer

    My information is Frank is a lawyer, is said to be similar to his brother Eddie. Should make a good MP for the ALP.

  44. mexicanbeemer

    The media are saying that Frank is a Journo the same as Eddie.

    I disagree with those who claim that Frank was unsuitable because he lives in Brighton. I don’t see anyone complaining about the federal member for Brighton being from Reservoir

  45. madcyril

    mexicanbeemer

    Frank is a former journo

    [
    McGUIRE’S career since has veered between journalism, politics and a private strategic consulting business. His journalistic career included successful stints at Four Corners and the Sunday program, collecting two Walkley Awards for journalism.
    ]

    http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/the-other-mcguire-20110215-1av8h.html

  46. mexicanbeemer

    Thanks I don’t know why i thought he was a lawyer.

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