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Victorian By-Elections

Feb 19, 2011

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Primary
%
Swing
2PP
%
Frank McGuire (ALP) 10516 51.0% -11.8% 10215 74.4%
Graham Dawson (GRN) 1227 5.9% -1.4% 3523 25.6%
Mark Hobart (DLP) 1180 5.7%
Merinda Davis (SEX) 1139 5.5%
Celal Sahin (IND) 4758 23.1%
Other Independents 1804 8.7%
Total 20624 13738
Informal 2216 9.7%
Counted (% of enrolled) 54.7% 36.4%
Booths counted (out of 13) 13 10

8.24pm. He also notes that Sahin ran McGuire close in Meadow Heights: 40 per cent to 37 per cent.

8.23pm. Antony Green reckons final turnout will be 76 per cent, which isn’t that unusual.

8.22pm. Meadow Heights added, so all the polling booths are in. Pre-polls and some of the postals will also be added this evening.

8.12pm. Roxburgh Homestead and Campbellfield added; only Meadow Heights to come.

8.01pm. Three booths added on meaningless Labor-versus-Greens two-party count.

8.00pm. Antony Green projects 67.1 per cent versus 31.9 per cent result for Labor versus Sahin on the final count.

7.58pm. GhostWhoVotes notes Sahin won the Upfield booth with 49.5 per cent primary vote.

7.56pm. Hume Central and Upfield booths added. By popular demand, Celal Sahin’s vote is now recorded separately in table. Psephos in comments notes Sahin has obviously harnessed the support of the electorate’s considerable Turkish community.

7.46pm. Independent Celal Sahin is easily the best performing non-Labor candidate on 17.8 per cent, and will finish far ahead of the Greens who are neck and neck with two other independents for third. So the notional two-party figures are purely a measure of the relative support for Labor and the Greens, not how the result will look after final distribution of preferences.

7.44pm. Lineball as to whether the Greens vote will be up and down. Not too big a shock: they also went nowhere in the Altona by-election.

7.43pm. Bethal, Broadmeadows North and Roxburgh Park primary vote results confirm the general trend, although the informal vote is back down to single figures.

7.41pm. I’ve added a row for the informal vote to my table, which is a very high 10.7 per cent from the five booths counted.

7.38pm. Two-party results from Glenroy East and Gowrie Park added, showing Labor with a thumping 81.8-18.2 lead over the Greens – but it’s by no means clear the Greens will in fact finish second, so this is as much a measure of their weak show as anything.

7.36pm. Broadmeadows, Coolaroo and Glenroy East booths added: Labor down quite sharply on the primary vote, further concerning for them with the informal vote is taken into account. Still a clear win on the primary vote however.

7.34pm. Antony Green points to high informal rate: 12.1 per cent.

7.30pm. Basically Labor took a big hit in their extremely strong Gowrie Park booth, but there was little change in weaker Glenroy North (which I have combined with the Glenroy booth, which is not in use at this by-election).

7.28pm. I’d made an error there on my swing calculations: Labor and the Greens are in fact both down, by 6.6 per cent and 1.3 per cent respectively.

7.24pm. To cut a long story short, Frank McGuire has won. Both Labor and Greens are up slightly, but the Greens trail the Sex Party and two independents.

7.22pm. Glenroy North and Gowrie Park have reported: results added.

7.20pm. “Not the most exciting by-election count I’ve covered” – Antony Green.

7.16pm. That same someone reports the Greens vote is down in Glenroy North: from 11 per cent to 8.2 per cent.

7.13pm. Taking their time. Someone on Twitter reports: “Labor’s @Frank_McGuire wins on primary at Glenroy Nth”.

6pm. Polls have closed in the Broadmeadows by-election, which is basically an exercise to rubber-stamp the entry into parliament of Labor candidate Frank McGuire. First results should be in at about 6:45pm. The above table shows the raw primary vote and percentage; booth-adjusted primary vote swing results, which match the available booth results against the equivalent from the November state election; and a raw two-candidate preferred figure, which assumes the Greens will finish second.

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106 comments

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Dr Phibes
Guest

Thanks Barry. Thanks Insiders.

Rebecca
Guest
Independently Thinking@99: I think you’re right to a fair extent in terms of why seats like Broadmeadows are bad for the Greens, but I also think you’re stereotyping working-class voters. These voters undoubtedly exist, but it doesn’t mean everyone. In my time spent campaigning from the Greens in less well-off places, you find plenty of voters who don’t like Labor or Liberal, don’t really give a damn about wedge issues, and are pretty open to talk about infrastructure, health, education, and such. Bird of Paradox listed a few seats where these sorts of campaigns have been run quite successfully. There… Read more »
Independently Thinking
Guest
Independently Thinking

[This is perhaps one area in which the Greens should take a hint from the major parties and not contest by-elections in their weakest seats]

Very sound call that.

Rebecca
Guest
lenwx@97: Extremely religious? According to the census figures 25% of the Canning electorate, of which Armadale is a big part, consider themselves of no religious affiliation. That is in the top 10% of all electorates. Perhaps it was the booth I was on, but in any election I’ve ever done, I’ve never seen a polling day with so many obviously evangelical voters, and where the amount of people who turned out specifically to vote for the CDP was so high. I’ve handed out HTVs in other conservative seats before, and I’ve never seen anything like it. The Greens put a… Read more »
edward o
Guest
Rebecca@96 Thank you for your detailed response. I have friends who are/have been Greens candidates (one of whom is running in NSW next month and is going to do quite well, I think, she’s smart, attractive and very personable, a real catch for the party) and I always had a problem with the assumption that Lib prefs were a definite. Certainly the party’s voters – perhaps not members – were up in arms about not getting what they thought they had a divine right to: the preferences of a party they hate the guts of and won’t deal with, ever,… Read more »
Frank Calabrese
Guest
[Bird of paradox Posted Monday, February 21, 2011 at 2:10 am | Permalink Frankie: the Greens shall continue as a boutique party for upper middle class white folk with a penchant for sanctimony and a willful ignorance of the limitations of renewable energy technology. Last time I looked at my group certificate last financial year it said I’d earnt 28 grand, so I guess that means I’m hanging on by my fingernails to the lower middle class. I’ve lived in Armadale (I don’t remember that many Christians, just lots of drainage ditches and dogs running around the street), and also… Read more »
Bird of paradox
Guest
Frankie: [ the Greens shall continue as a boutique party for upper middle class white folk with a penchant for sanctimony and a willful ignorance of the limitations of renewable energy technology. ] Last time I looked at my group certificate last financial year it said I’d earnt 28 grand, so I guess that means I’m hanging on by my fingernails to the lower middle class. I’ve lived in Armadale (I don’t remember that many Christians, just lots of drainage ditches and dogs running around the street), and also Coolbellup, Cloverdale and plenty of other suburbs not known for their… Read more »
Independently Thinking
Guest
Independently Thinking
Rebecca I am not a Labor troll. I have never voted Labor (or Liberal) in my life. Heck, I even include a Greens MP amongst my friends! I appreciate your spirited and sensible defence of the Greens, and I think most on PB do too. It makes a change from cheer squads who call each other names and wackos who are eventually banned. Now, to the debate. IMHO, the Greens, like the Democrats to a degree, appeal to a similar (not identical I stress) demographic, but that can change depending on circumstances in an election or byelection. Unfortunately for the… Read more »
max
Guest

From what I hear from infomed sources (I live in an adjacent electorate and helped out on one of the polling booths on saturday) sahin has close links to the local liberal party organisation and was supported by them. The alp/sahin 2PP is a reasonable proxy for the alp/lib 2PP i’d suggest.

lenxyz
Guest
[iBoth Armadale (semi-rural; socially conservative; extremely religious)/i] Rebecca, the Armadale state electorate has no rural elements at all. It is the inner parts of the regional centre. The Greens candidate made the same mistake, he went to cast his vote with the TV cameras watching and was turned back because wasn’t on the Armadale roll (he was in the adjacent electorate of Darling Range!). Extremely religious? According to the census figures 25% of the Canning electorate, of which Armadale is a big part, consider themselves of no religious affiliation. That is in the top 10% of all electorates. [iThe Greens… Read more »
Rebecca
Guest
Rebecca, are you going to deny tha the Greens thought they would take at least one, maybe up to four lower house seats in Victoria recently? They thought that they might win up to four seats on the assumption that they would have Liberal preferences. Had that assumption been correct, they’d still have won three seats (despite what I personally think was a piss-poor state campaign) and we wouldn’t be having this discussion. Without, I think they and everyone else realised that was going to be a bloody hard slog, and it’s the next challenge they’re going to have to… Read more »
Albert Ross
Guest

In an ideal world the MP would live in his/her seat but if they are just outside the seat due to a boundary change ot if the suburb they live in happens to overlap boundaries then i am happy for the MP to live just outside the seat.

The worst case is the candidate that gets parachuted in by the ALP machine, promises to move to the electorate if returned and then stays put in a leafy suburb some distance away eg. Paul Gibson who is for the time being the ALP member of Blacktown. But then, that’s the Zanu-ALP way.

edward o
Guest

Rebecca, are you going to deny tha the Greens thought they would take at least one, maybe up to four lower house seats in Victoria recently?

To be fair, many Sex Party votes would have otherwise gone the Greens’ way, which to me suggests a lot of blue-greens may be looking elsewhere for their vote. But if there are still enough rusted-ons to poll 5% in Broadmeadows, even at a by-election where they should have done better, the Greens’ future in Victoria looks reasonable rosy.

Rebecca
Guest
Frankie V.@92: Yes, as Independently Thinking said, all the places where well-to-do trendies don’t live. Except that this is crap. There are working-class seats where everyone, including the Greens, expects them to do very badly. There are working-class seats where the Greens expect to do pretty damn well. Is there something that makes Labor voters on this site allergic to looking at actual data? I’m pretty sure the ALP aren’t using mind control. Immigrants have their own reasons for not voting Greens.> This is very true. I’m simply pointing out that it’s one demographic weakness for the party, and that… Read more »
Frankie V.
Guest
Rebecca @ 85 [The Greens, like every other party, have seats where they don’t do well. These tend to be places with either a) a very large religious base (like Armadale in WA), seats with a high migrant population (as Labor harnesses these groups extremely well and the Greens haven’t learned to crack that – yet), or seats with a particular type of working-class dynamic (socially conservative; outer suburban; weak sense of local community).] Yes, as Independently Thinking said, all the places where well-to-do trendies don’t live. [seats with a high migrant population (as Labor harnesses these groups extremely well… Read more »
wal kolla
Guest
I think Bailieu / Kennett deserve a lot of credit for the underperformance of the greens in the last few months within Victoria. I will also think that Bailieu will split a lot of the grass-roots “green” groups from the greens – for e.g. PTUA – as what was done with the old BLF for labor. As Ive mentioned before, I dont vote for any single party consistantly; but I voted for the libs because Im sick of “pollywaffle” that tends to come from the labor side these days. In the early days, bracks used to talk fairly straight –… Read more »
edward o
Guest

I think the reason the Greens should have done better is because there was NO LIBERAL CANDIDATE. Fremantle doesn’t disprove the point, it bolsters it. The Greens won because the Liberals sat out meaning a not inconsiderable slice of the vote (even in a seat traditionally bad for that party) was up for grabs. They should have done better. Perhaps Bailieu has really demonised the party for wet Libs for the time being.

Firstname Lastname
Guest

Frank #87

So if the Greens manage to wrest away another seat off Labor you won’t throw tantrums again?

Rebecca #88

They don’t go ballistic because only half the Liberal candidates are to the left of them and the choose to only see those to the right. 😛

Rebecca
Guest
lenwx: It might help if you read the post directly above. Both Armadale (semi-rural; socially conservative; extremely religious) and Broadmeadows (socially conservative; outer suburban; weak sense of community) are very bad areas for the Greens. The Greens knew damn well they were going to come third in Armadale, and I assume they figured as much in Broadmeadows as well. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again: why is it that the Greens doing badly in their worst seats in the entire country seems to make ALP fans think the Greens have had a tremendous defeat, and why don’t… Read more »
Frank Calabrese
Guest

Rebecca and lenwx:

All I will say is welcome to Democracy 🙂

lenxyz
Guest
Why is the VEC giving a ALP/Green 2PP when it is clearly ALP/Sahin? Antony Green has it at 69/31 ALP/Ind Sahin. This is the second by-election since the Federal election where the Greens have come in a poor third although no Liberal candidate was standing. It also occurred in the Armadale (WA) by-election where without a Liberal candidate it was a 70/30 ALP/CDP 2PP. At least then the WAEC caught on early on that 2PP was not ALP/Greens as widely expected but ALP/CDP. It seems the Greens Adam Bandt’s hasty support for Gillard is costing them dearly. They used to… Read more »
Rebecca
Guest
Independently Thinking@82: The Greens on the other hand, ouch. Working class people does not equal Green. Their demographics are increasingly being narrowed into trendy inner city seats in Melbourne and Sydney and the Hills in Adelaide (please advise in other capitals) – Tasmania is of course a different situation where they appeal to a broader church and are known as local people too. This is bollocks. The Greens, like every other party, have seats where they don’t do well. These tend to be places with either a) a very large religious base (like Armadale in WA), seats with a high… Read more »
gusface
Guest

frankie v

LOL

Frankie V.
Guest

William Bowe @ 67

[Most people don’t want to live there – not me, not you, and not anyone who would make a good minister.]

Yes, it’s one thing for Labor politicians to talk the talk of multiculturalism, and for them to label those with differing views on the subject as monsters, but it’s just plain unreasonable to expect them to actually live next door to darkies and Chinamen.

Independently Thinking
Guest
Independently Thinking
Back on the Broady result, there would be a lot of Liberal voters who failed to show, voted Indy (inc Sahin) or informal. This happens every time when one of the majors fails to front – informal gets their deposit back. The Labor dive is about what you’d expect, and will be forgotten within a month. Good on Sahin for having a go, and probably soaked up all the Turkish voters he could who liked him. The Greens on the other hand, ouch. Working class people does not equal Green. Their demographics are increasingly being narrowed into trendy inner city… Read more »
gusface
Guest

bilbo

Hmmm

you seem to confuse 2 issues here

1 being the right to represent

v

2 the right to live where you want

tho having a coterie of fibs in the eastern suburbs would save the fibs heaps

Independently Thinking
Guest
Independently Thinking
mb is right – we had a case here in SA where an MP who felt particularly strong on the local bit and who lived in the electorate when first elected and then found herself living one suburb outside after the redistrution. She moved, and the same thing happened next redistribution. Her family told her to stay put, and I agree – she is close enough. Frank McGuire grew up in Broady and his parents still live there (in the same street as a friend of mine). It’s not that bad an area to live in, but maybe then again,… Read more »
Tom the first and best
Guest
Tom the first and best

77

I think that there might be a case for a spot of grandfathering in the case of redistributions moving the seat away from an MP.

mexicanbeemer
Guest

In an ideal world the MP would live in his/her seat but if they are just outside the seat due to a boundary change ot if the suburb they live in happens to overlap boundaries then i am happy for the MP to live just outside the seat.

gusface
Guest

MB

actually tom aint alone in his thinking

Why shouldnt a local represent a seat

Seems to me that the middle class ethos has become the norm

🙁

Tom the first and best
Guest
Tom the first and best

72

That was a particularly stupid statement by Barber (if it has not been misinterpreted and/or misrepresented).

mexicanbeemer
Guest

IT – I agree butn only Tom thinks MPs should be required to live in their seats and while it is a nice idea but living in the general area is find by me.

Independently Thinking
Guest
Independently Thinking
Some of you guys are a scream…thankfully William and Psephos bring logic to the debate. Forcing MPs to live in their electorate is just plain silly. Redistributions put paid to that idea. If an MP representing a northern or western suburbs seat lives in the leafy east, then the locals can take that into account…if anyone bothers to tell them. If they live in the general area, that’s OK by me. The ALP member for the poorest seat in SA lives in the richest suburb in Adelaide – over 30kms away. He even occasionally gets to visit the area to… Read more »
mexicanbeemer
Guest

Tom – No PR is needed for as we found out in Victorian the likes of Greg Barber only represented the area in Zone 1 asnd didn’t care for people from the northern part of his seat.

I’m sorry but no thanks to PR

Tom the first and best
Guest
Tom the first and best

67

Introduce PR in the lower house and there will be seats covering a wider range of area that ALP candidates can win. Candidate electorate residency may well help the ALP select some more selfless people into parliaments.

gusface
Guest

bilbo

so PJK never lived in bankstown

Hmmmm

🙁

mexicanbeemer
Guest

In all seriouslness Altona has some nice parts around Point Cook whilst Broady is a tough place to live

mexicanbeemer
Guest

Phone rings

William – Hello William speaking
Voice on the phone – Hey William, its Joola here
William – Hi Julia
Voice – Just cvalled to let you in on a little secret just between us
William – Okay just between us
Voice – I am the PM and my house is in Altona

deblonay
Guest

Re MP’s residenc
<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<
I have just checked with a friend who was once a Federal Labor MP and he tells me that a Federal MP can choose to be placed on the roll for his electorate even if ( he or she) lives outside it(and can thus vote there on polling day)

Tom the first and best
Guest
Tom the first and best

54

Are you saying that Broadmeadows and Altona are places unworthy of an MP living in? Anyway if they are it should be the MPs job to get that fixed not just solve the problem only for themself.

When was the last time you herd of voters naming not living in their electorate as a positive? The candidate can always move.

mexicanbeemer
Guest

Dio – I have heard both men say they are Left of Center. Eddie would be more likely to go into politics than Andrew but they are both from the Northern suburbs

Diogenes
Guest

I’ve heard Eddie McGuire and Andrew Demetriou both mentioned as possible Labor candidates.

Psephos
Guest

I don’t think even Tom would suggest that MPs should have to sit for the seat where they were born. For the record, I think MPs ought to live in the seat they represent, but not that it should be compulsory.

mexicanbeemer
Guest

Psephos – And i think the Whitlam story is an example as too why Tom’s suggestion whilst a nice idea might actually have adverse effect on the political process.

Psephos
Guest

Whitlam was born in Melbourne because his father was a Commonwealth public servant in 1916 Melbourne was the capital of Australia. But he was in no sense “from” Victoria. He went to school in Canberra and Sydney, went to university in Sydney, and has lived in Sydney all his adult life. On this logic Gillard would have to sit for a seat in Wales.

mexicanbeemer
Guest

I don’t believe Victoria has ever had a requirement for MP’s to actually live in the seat they hold.

deblonay
Guest

Re residence in electorate ..Tom 52

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Tom..where did you get the info re Victorian residence requirements for MP’s
I have lived and voted in Victoria all my life ,and have been a candidate and had many involvements with campaigns all my life,and I have never heard of that!
.
Are you sure that members in Victoria were once required to live in their electorate?
I very much doubt that ? When was it so ?

mexicanbeemer
Guest

Offically yes but Strathmore just happens to be one of the best part of the North-Western suburbs.

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