Roy Morgan has performed its occasional trick of confusing the hell out of people who don’t follow its activities closely, by releasing two sets of opinion poll results at the same time. One is a phone poll from a solid sample of 882 respondents with a margin of error of a bit under 3.5 per cent, and it shows what we have come to expect from polls of this kind regardless of who conducts them: the Coalition leads 53.5-46.5 on two-party preferred and by 46 per cent to 34 per cent on the primary vote, with the Greens on 11 per cent. The two-party result is much the same if you use respondent-allocated preferences rather than preferences from the 2010 election result: 54-46.

The other poll covers Morgan’s last two weekends of regular face-to-face surveying, and has the Coalition lead at 52-48 using 2010 election preferences and 53.5-46.5 using respondent-allocated preferences. It should be noted that the consistent discrepancy in these results, with the former proving more favourable to Labor, has been a recent phenomenon, resulting from a decline in the share of non-major party voters indicating a preference for Labor. The primary votes are at 37 per cent for Labor, 46 per cent for the Coalition and 10.5 per cent for the Greens.

We also had earlier this week Newspoll results on climate change and the carbon tax, with even worse results for the government than usual: only 30 per cent are in favour of its policy, with 60 per cent opposed. It has of course been shown the the government gets much kinder results if it is put to respondents that most of the money raised will be used for compensation: this particular question asked respondents for an opinion “based on what you may know about it”, which is highly reasonable methodologically but possibly obscures some of the issue’s political complexity. Beyond that, 78 per cent “believe in climate change”, and 72 per cent (58 partly, 14 per cent entirely) believe it to be caused by human activity. However, only 39 per cent are in favour of paying more for energy as a result: 30 per cent are opposed despite believing human activity to be a cause, with 28 per cent either not believing or not committed.

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