The latest Morgan face-to-face poll, conducted last weekend from a sample of 976, has a shocking headline figure for the government of 56.5-43.5 to the Coalition on two-party preferred. However, this uses the respondent-allocated preference measure, and I as always favour the previous-election method which has become the industry standard. In keeping with Morgan’s recent trend, this produces a substantially different result of 54-46. On either measure Labor has gone substantially backwards since the previous Morgan face-to-face poll which covered the weekends of May 21-22 and 28-29. On the primary vote, Labor is down 2.5 per cent to 33.5 per cent, and the Coalition up 1 per cent to 46.5 per cent with the Greens steady on 12 per cent. The Coalition’s two-party preferred leads last time were 54-46 on the previous-election preference measure and 51.5-48.5 on respondent-allocated.

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