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Federal Politics

Jun 24, 2011

Morgan: 53.5-46.5 to Coalition

The latest result from Roy Morgan combines its last two weekends of face-to-face polling from a sample of 1776, and finds th

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The latest result from Roy Morgan combines its last two weekends of face-to-face polling from a sample of 1776, and finds the Labor primary vote recovering slightly to 35 per cent (up 1.5 per cent on the weekend of June 4-5), the Coalition steady on 46.5 per cent and the Greens down half a point to 11.5 per cent. On the two-party preferred measure that allocates preferences as per the result of the previous election (my favourite), the Coalition’s lead has gone from 54-46 to 53.5-46.5; it’s down more substantially on the respondent-allocated measure favoured by Morgan (lately), from 56.5-43.5 to 54.5-45.5.

Now it’s time for PB Chart of the Week, a feature that may or may not live up to its name over the long term. With Labor polling disastrously in every jurisdiction, I thought it might be instructive to plot the party’s federal and state voting performance since the inception of Newspoll in late 1985 (I’ve started at the beginning of 1986 for the sake of neatness). The chart below shows combined quarterly measures for Labor’s two-party vote, both federally (which is quite straightforward) and at state level (a population-weighted result with the larger states accounting for proportionally greater shares of the result, and Tasmania excluded because Newspoll doesn’t do them regularly).

What we see is that the party’s federal and state fortunes do seem to be quite closely related. While Labor was travelling better at federal than state level from 1986 to 1990 and again since 2008, they tended to move up and down (actually just down more recently) in tandem within those periods. However, this may be because the respondents for Newspoll’s federal and state surveys are usually the same people. The two lines sat very closely together throughout the 1990s, but decoupled as Labor achieved state-level dominance in the Howard years. The impression more recently is of the federal line chasing the tail of the states, although recent form suggests the downward federal trend wouldn’t have bottomed out yet.

If the results don’t quite bear out talk of Labor being in record-breaking dire straits at present – at least to the extent that they do not appear in a worse position than in the twilight of the Keating years – it should be noted that the picture would look worse for them if I was using the primary vote rather than two-party preferred.

UPDATE (27/6/11): Essential Research: 55-45 (steady). Coalition 48% (+1), Labor 32% (-1), Greens 11% (-1). “If Kevin Rudd was Labor leader”, 45 per cent say they would vote Labor against 42 per cent for the Coalition, with Labor leading 53-47 on two-party. Similarly, the Coalition leads 59-41 if Malcolm Turnbull was leader. In both cases I suggest you have to account for mischief-making by supporters of the other party.

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3934 comments

3,934 thoughts on “Morgan: 53.5-46.5 to Coalition

  1. shellbell

    Best wishes Puff for the hard times

  2. Puff, the Magic Dragon.

    Ta, shell. 🙂

  3. sprocket_

    shock poll result, massive sample, tiny MOE – may as well resign in disgrace

    I think this murdoch mastehead poll is much more reliable than the Morgan/Monckton poll

    [ READERS have overwhelmingly given Julia Gillard the thumbs down on almost every measure in her first year as PM.

    An estimated 20,000 readers of News Limited mastheads across the country – including news.com.au gave Ms Gillard a resounding “D” for her performance on almost every important issue, one year after she took the mantle as Australia’s first female Prime Minister.

    The interactive report card, rating her performance on an A-D scale, shows Ms Gillard has precious little support for her handling of the mining tax, asylum seekers and the carbon tax.

    In her worst score, 15,556 people gave her a “D” for dealing with asylum seekers with just 578 giving her top marks.

    Voters also crucially failed her honesty, vision and leadership.

    In most categories, close to 14,000 respondents gave her the lowest possible rating, leaving her with a “D” for her handling of the National Broadband Network, dealing with the independents, her performance on the world stage, and understanding over everyday Australians.

    The PM even failed in the wardrobe department and her manner of speaking.

    Her strongest suits were seen as her determination, where an extra 520 votes would have given her a “B”, and her handling of the war in Afghanistan where there were significant scores for “B” and “C”.

    But in ongoing bad news for Julia, the report card still shows she scored “Ds” in both categories.

    The embarassing report card comes amid renewed leadership speculation as dumped former PM Kevin Rudd’s popularity soars.

    Read more: http://www.news.com.au/national/rudds-fortunes-soar-on-julia-gillard-anniversary-as-pm/story-e6frfkvr-1226081528614#ixzz1QBuwnnZD ]

  4. William Bowe

    I’ve been otherwise engaged over the past day or two and will likely remain so, so I’ll be liberally imposing short-term bans on anyone who shows they can’t be trusted to behave in my absence.

  5. BK

    Puff
    You must have invested so much time and emotion leading up to your sad loss. Now you must be coming to that realisation.
    Chin up, good lady.

  6. William Bowe

    [shock poll result, massive sample, tiny MOE]

    Sprocket, are you being serious?

  7. Frank Calabrese

    [4

    William Bowe

    Posted Friday, June 24, 2011 at 9:21 pm | Permalink

    I’ve been otherwise engaged over the past day or two and will likely remain so, so I’ll be liberally imposing short-term bans on anyone who shows they can’t be trusted to behave in my absence.
    ]

    Yes Alex 🙂

  8. ShowsOn

    [The polls are clearly on the side of legal same sex marriage, and I’m hopeful that if/when it comes to parliament as a conscience vote, it will pass.]
    It would’ve been nicer if Gillard simply had the guts to make it Government policy, then give Labor MPs a conscience vote.

    Rudd had such an agreement with the Labor Left to put it to parliament and give Labor MPs a conscience vote in his second term:
    [KEVIN Rudd agreed to back same-sex civil unions at last year’s ALP National Conference in a private deal with key Left faction leaders.

    However the plan lapsed when the Left’s Julia Gillard replaced Mr Rudd in June.

    Mr Rudd, despite his strong Christian beliefs, intended to grant Labor MPs a conscience vote during his second term and planned to openly campaign on the policy in the 2010 election to seek a public mandate for the change.]
    http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/national/gay-marriage-policy-splits-labor/story-e6freuzr-1225954652794

  9. zoidlord

    Its news limited, I’d ignore everything news.com.au

  10. Frank Calabrese

    [ShowsOn

    Posted Friday, June 24, 2011 at 9:25 pm | Permalink

    The polls are clearly on the side of legal same sex marriage, and I’m hopeful that if/when it comes to parliament as a conscience vote, it will pass.

    It would’ve been nicer if Gillard simply had the guts to make it Government policy, then give Labor MPs a conscience vote.
    ]

    Umm, The matter will be rightly discussed at National Conference – but until then it ain’t the end of the world.

  11. Glen

    How come Gillard doesnt legislate for equal pay for women?

    Would be a popular policy?

  12. Jasmine

    Based on Franks numerous character assessments and adusting for the famous Frank bias detector bias you’d be helping Simon setup the State Labor Conference no William?

  13. charlton

    Apple Blossom:

    I can recall in the Navy in 1972 when the WRANS (female sailors) were granted equal pay on an incremental basis spread over a year. Up to then, they were paid only half the male rate & were discharged automatically if they wished to marry or became pregnant.

    Moreover, the opposition in the ranks to the concept of equal pay was one of almost complete derision.

    Sexual equality, which had its genesis in the 60s, has sure come a long and the PM’s elevation is in my view its symbolic apogee.

  14. William Bowe

    Starting with Frank, obviously.

  15. Jasmine

    *smiles innocently and heads for bed*

  16. confessions

    Puff:

    You have my best wishes and sincere regards. And I always appreciate your comments. Are you still on the dreaded wireless? I’m on wireless, so can sympathise with its uselessness!

  17. Gusface

    [Starting with Frank, obviously.]

    your playing favourites again

    😉

  18. ShowsOn

    [Umm, The matter will be rightly discussed at National Conference – but until then it ain’t the end of the world.]
    Yeah I agree, the parliament should’ve voted on it already and it should be law.

    S.A., NSW and QLD conferences have all voted to support it.

  19. shellbell

    Being able to vote as often as you like on a report card that looks an evilish coloured red with a slightly nasty look of the PM’s face must must not help the MOE!

  20. Gusface

    btw

    Charlton

    your basis for assuming that all the proto’s were male?

  21. This little black duck

    Puff,
    [Vanilla 97% Fat Free]
    Fat-reduced ice-cream, Now, there’s a crime against humanity!

  22. poroti

    sprocket
    .
    “shock poll result, massive sample, tiny MOE – may as well resign in disgrace”
    .
    I find the claims re margain of error somewhat of a joke. For a start how many standard deviations does the quoted MOE represents. A 3% MOE ?What degree of confidence do they attach to it ? Oh god the picking over of entrails due to a half a percent shift in the polls. Bloody hell the supposed margin of error is several hundred percent more than that so it can only ever mean feck all or less. How do they work out their claimed MOE when I very much doubt they can work out their standard deviation ?

  23. jenauthor

    Thinking of you Puffy.

  24. ShowsOn

    [S.A., NSW and QLD conferences have all voted to support it.]
    Sorry, I meant VIC, not NSW.

    So frank W.A. Labor is voting on same sex marriage this weekend. Do you support it?

  25. Generic Person

    Evening circle jerkers. Coalition still substantially ahead, while Gillard blathers along meaninglessly.

  26. evan14

    Channel 10 Phone Poll!
    80% of respondents want Rudd to return to the top job.

    Yes, I know, it’s immaterial and it won’t happen and the factional bosses ignore such stuff.

  27. victoria

    Unpleasant odours abound

  28. This little black duck

    Oooh, mice!

  29. BK

    Looks like somebody lifted up a rock,

  30. evan14

    Generic Person: Good Evening!

  31. Gusface

    Gp

    yep

    all is woe, the end is nighe etc etc

    but the reason is from 1 july

    We haz da senut

    all ur pwoers are ourz

  32. confessions

    [It would’ve been nicer if Gillard simply had the guts to make it Government policy, then give Labor MPs a conscience vote.]

    Agree.

    However. If legal same sex marriage WAS Labor policy, it would obviously pass the Senate. But what about the House? There’d by ALP + Bandt + Wilkie = 74. Who else? Malcolm Turnbull maybe.

  33. Scarpat

    [Evening circle jerkers. Coalition still substantially ahead, while Gillard blathers along meaninglessly.]

    Yep – 151 Bills passed, NBN, Carbon Pricing and AS resolution on the front burners.

  34. Generic Person

    No 32

    I expect her to go south even further once the public are aware that Bob Brown is really running the show.

  35. Glen

    [Evening circle jerkers. Coalition still substantially ahead, while Gillard blathers along meaninglessly.]

    Polls have found a happy resting place between 53 and 57 2pp for the Tories GP.
    When they have remained like this for a period of time Labor will be in deep trouble.
    Just ask Howard when Rudd was consistently 55-45 ahead.

  36. george

    [Evening circle jerkers. Coalition still substantially ahead, while Gillard blathers along meaninglessly.]

    The only circle jerking going on around here is between you and Glen

  37. This little black duck

    Our banner: S.P.Q.L. – Senatus Populusque Laborus.

  38. William Bowe

    I haven’t attended many circle jerks lately, but is it characteristic of them that they’re as nastily vituperative as PB? Because I really didn’t think that was the idea.

  39. george

    Victoria are you still around?

  40. zoomster

    And the reason they ignore such polls is that they’re a pile of you know whatsit.

    Remember all those on line polls telling everyone that the flood levy was less popular than herpes? And when we got a ‘real’ poll, it in fact had majority support?

    Similarly, the welfare freeze was going to see households earning $150k plus out begging in the streets, if online polls were to be believed.

    Again, when we saw real polling, most people thought that a household on that income might just be able to make it without government support.

    Online polls aren’t ignored because their results are inconvenient. They’re ignored because they’re wrong.

  41. Scarpat

    [Looks like somebody lifted up a rock]

    NK,

    are you referring to GP or evan14 or do they share rent?

  42. victoria

    george

    Yes I am still here

  43. ShowsOn

    [But what about the House? There’d by ALP + Bandt + Wilkie = 74. Who else? Malcolm Turnbull maybe.]
    I reckon there would be at least a dozen Liberals cross the floor.

    OK these are guesses, but Hunt, Hockey, Moylan, Broadbent, O’Dwyer, Turnbull,

    Plus Oakeshott.

  44. BK

    Scarpat
    GP – he only comes out at propitious times.

  45. Scarpat

    NK is BK of course.

  46. confessions

    Good evening Glen.

    You might be interested in this post by Andrew Elder about the Lib presidency.
    http://andrewelder.blogspot.com/2011/06/two-bald-men-fighting-over-comb.html

  47. Generic Person

    No 39

    A bit tautologous.

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